Manel Kape is accustomed to his opponents trying to take him to the ground and limit his ability to inflict damage on the feet, and his first UFC Fight Night main event should be no exception.
The popular flyweight striker is set to face Asu Almabayev on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas in a pivotal five-round style clash that’ll have a ripple effect on the top of the division.
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Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno fights at home against Steve Erceg in the main event of a UFC Fight Night in Mexico City. Watch the action on Saturday, March 29, on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+ with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT.
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Kape was originally supposed to fight No. 1 flyweight contender Brandon Royval at the event; however, an injury forced Royval off the card at the beginning of the month.
Almabayev is a 21-2 professional currently riding a 17-fight winning streak dating back to 2017, who was tabbed as a suitable replacement for Royval.
The 31-year-old from Kazakhstan made his successful UFC debut in 2023 and had a 3-0 campaign in 2024 to really put himself on the map within the division. Almabayev has relied heavily on his strong grappling skills in all four of his UFC wins.
Kape is one of the fastest and most dynamic strikers on the entire UFC roster and is coming off a clinic he put on Bruno Silva in December.
He is also 31, like Almabayev, but has twice as much UFC experience. The Angola-born fighter, ranked as the No. 6 contender at 125 pounds entering the weekend, is a former Rizin champion who holds a stoppage win over recent UFC flyweight title challenger Kai Asakura.
Kape is far busier and more dangerous when the action is on the feet. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per 15 minutes while absorbing 4.15. One reason he has found success is that he has been able to defend 77 per cent of his opponent’s takedown attempts in the UFC.
Kape has won five of his past six outings, with his lone setback during that stretch being a frustrating three-round loss to the since-released Muhammad Mokaev. Kape ended up on the wrong side of a lacklustre judges’ decision last July after Mokaev eked out the victory and used two minutes of control time in the final round to ultimately secure the win.
Might Almabayev take a similar approach in his biggest fight to date?
With Almabayev averaging 5.08 successful takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, completing 50 per cent of his attempts and adding 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, Kape’s grappling defence will need to be on high alert.
Almabayev did register a knockdown in his most recent outing, a unanimous decision over Matheus Nicolau in October, but overall, he only manages 2.11 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes in his UFC career to date.
On the other hand, Almabayev does a great job limiting damage by only eating 1.02 significant strikes per 15 minutes. In fact, he has never absorbed more than 13 significant head strikes in any single UFC bout and has taken down all four of his opponents. Kape will certainly aim to test that impressive striking defence from the moment this matchup gets underway.
While Royval vs. Kape would’ve served as a straightforward title eliminator in the men’s 125-pound division, Kape vs. Almabayev is a little more complicated.
The winner could potentially be positioned to make an argument that they deserve the next title shot — depending on whether it’s an impressive performance that leads to the victory — yet nothing is guaranteed since Kape is only ranked No. 6 and Almabayev sits at No. 8 in the division.
Reigning men’s flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja does not officially have his next matchup booked, although it is looking like it could be Kai Kara-France at some point later this year.
Either way, Pantoja should keep a close eye on Kape vs. Almabayev since both are potential future title challengers for him. Former champ Brandon Moreno and one-time title challenger Steve Erceg headline the UFC’s return to Mexico City at the end of March in another flyweight main event that’ll have title shot implications.
Kape enters Saturday’s matchup as roughly a two-to-one betting favourite (Kape is listed at -222 chalk compared to +180 for Almabayev as of Thursday, according to BetMGM), but that isn’t preventing Almabayev from pondering what an upset victory to lead to.
“I’m 4-0 in the UFC. I’m ready. I’m excited,” Almabayev said Wednesday at the official Fight Night media day when asked about the title. “If I [beat Kape to stay unbeaten in the UFC], I think it should be me and nobody else.”
Below is a look at the full fight card and projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev.
MAIN CARD
-- Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
-- Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
-- Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
-- Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis
-- Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto
-- Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal
-- Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castaneda
-- Danny Silva vs. Lucas Almeida
-- Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich
-- Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov
-- Montana De La Rosa vs. Luana Carolina
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