Khamzat Chimaev becoming UFC's biggest 'What If' after latest withdrawal

There was a time when, like Thanos in the Avengers films, Khamzat Chimaev was inevitable.

After bursting onto the scene in 2020 with three dominant finishes in under 10 minutes of cage time over the course of two months, Chimaev was anointed as the next one and a can’t-miss prospect that was expected to become a future champion.

Chimaev’s performances were so convincing that many speculated he could one day become a two-division champion and would defend at both welterweight and middleweight.

However, the aura around Chimaev began to change in 2021. Three separate bouts with future champion Leon Edwards were cancelled, two of which were because Chimaev contracted COVID-19, which lingered in his system and even had him contemplating retirement after serious medical concerns.

Chimaev had a change of heart and seemingly returned to form with a first-round finish against Li Jingliang in late 2021.

In 2022, Chimaev faced his toughest test against former title challenger Gilbert Burns and despite finally being tested he was able to earn a closely contested unanimous decision victory, which showed that he was ready for the next step.

However, instead of a step up, Chimaev was presented with a step down in competition, but a big name in Nate Diaz, who he was scheduled to headline UFC 279 against in his first main event opportunity.

Chimaev did end up fighting at UFC 279, but rather than facing Diaz, he missed weight by 7.5 pounds and Diaz refused to accept the bout, which forced the UFC to pivot to Kevin Holland as his opponent, who he defeated by submission in the first round.

After being lauded for his activity having won his first three UFC fights in 66 days, his next four fights took place over the course of more than three years. After deciding to move up to middleweight following the huge weight miss at UFC 279, he was fast tracked to face a top middleweight contender in Abu Dhabi at UFC 294 in Paulo Costa.

His middleweight aspirations took a hit as Costa pulled out of the fight due to a severe staph infection and on 10 days’ notice, Costa was replaced by former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, who was making his middleweight debut.

Chimaev would pass the test, but won an unconvincing decision against Usman.

While he has passed every test that the UFC has thrown at him, many questions surrounded Chimaev’s championship viability.

The expectation was that he would answer those questions when he faced Robert Whittaker in the main event of the UFC’s first event in Saudi Arabia, but it was not meant to be.

Chimaev had to withdraw from the bout against Whittaker due to what UFC CEO Dana White referred to as Chimaev being “violently ill.” Members of Chimaev’s camp had stated that he had been hospitalized several times during camp.

“The persistent illness that Khamzat has been battling for major parts of training camp could not be cured in time. He has been in and out of hospitals several times,” read a statement from Chimaev’s manager Majdi Shammas.

In addition to Chimaev’s health concerns are questions surrounding his eligibility to compete in the United States, where the UFC holds the majority of its major events each year.

Chimaev has made no secret about his close ties with Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic, and even had two of Kadyrov’s sons with him for the bout against Usman.

Kadyrov has been sanctioned by the United States Department of State for human rights violations, which many point to as the reason for Chimaev’s inability to travel to the United States.

Chimaev’s jiu-jitsu coach Alan Nascimento told MMA Fighting that Chimaev had been granted a 10-year visa from the United Arab Emirates, which he hopes will assist in Chimaev’s travel eligibility.

Nearly four years after making his debut at age 26, there are more questions than answers surrounding Chimaev and whether he will ever be able to become a UFC champion.

Two years ago, Chimaev was the third-ranked welterweight and since then he has two wins, including one over Usman, who was the champion of the 170-pound division, and all he has to show for it is being the No. 11-ranked contender at 185 pounds.

His career is starting to veer into “what if?” territory. What if one of the three scheduled Edwards fights had happened? What if he had made weight and was able to shine against Diaz? What if he was able to compete at some of the UFC’s tentpole events over the past two years?

Now, Chimaev needs to answer some other major what ifs. What if he continues to suffer from recurring health issues and cannot safely resume his career? What if he can only compete in a limited number of countries? 

The rollercoaster of Chimaev’s career arc has had him go from being the talk of the town to potentially becoming an afterthought, which is a real shame considering his dominance, his upside and his marketability.

Once touted as “the next one,” it could soon be time for us to channel our inner Jay-Z and say “on to the next one.”