Like it or not, Jon Jones is in full control at UFC 309

NEW YORK — Whatever gambit Jon Jones is playing this week, he’s in complete control of it.

If Jones is truly intending to finish his career with fights against Stipe Miocic, who he’ll defend his UFC heavyweight title against Saturday at Madison Square Garden, and Alex Pereira, who he’s said is the only other UFC opponent that would be of interest, he’s positioned himself to bookend an already undeniable resume with winnable fights — Miocic is 42 and last won during Donald Trump’s first term; Pereira’s been out-wrestled by middleweights — against brand names that will age like Bordeaux decades from now.

If he’s intending to retire Saturday — win or lose — he’s created intense intrigue into what he’ll say on the microphone after the fight, and likely sold a couple pay-per-views in the process, maximizing the return on his farewell appearance.

If, all along, he’s been intending to fight Tom Aspinall — UFC’s interim heavyweight champion of over a year, who Jones has dismissed as unproven — but chosen to spend this week pretending he won’t to spur reaction and leverage UFC for a larger payday, he’s leaned into the heel narrative that’s characterized his career, generated more interest in both the Miocic and Aspinall fights, and played a deft negotiating card against his employer that only a superstar of superstars could.

No matter what, Jones wins. He’s driving this bus and it’s going wherever he wants it to. We’re all just along for the ride. 

“I get that Tom is an exciting fighter,” Jones said Wednesday in New York. “I get that finally, after 16 years, we found somebody who's seven years younger than me and 30 pounds bigger than me. We finally found someone who may give me a great challenge. And everyone wants to see it so bad. But what’s in it for me? He changes nothing if I beat him.

“Why not fight against Pereira, a guy who's the same age and we walk around the same exact size? … And he has magnificent accolades. Business wise, it makes more sense. Should I fight the nobody that may be more dangerous? Or fight the guy with all the accolades who's incredibly dangerous but will actually affect your legacy? Me beating Cyril Gane didn't change anything for me. It just gave me a few more millions. And it would be the same for Tom Aspinall.”

Of course, it says something about the Miocic fight’s pertinence that the MMA world’s more concerned with what will happen after it than during it. Then again, so do many other things. Jones is 37; Miocic, 42. Neither has fought in the last 21 months. Since September 2020, the pair have combined for two fights totalling seven minutes and 56 seconds of octagon time. Those two fights also happen to be the only two times UFC’s heavyweight title has been contested in that span.

In a sport that moves as quickly as MMA, it’s a shocking degree of stagnation for both the fighters and their division. Over those four years, Pereira, Dricus du Plessis, and Ilia Topuria have all made their UFC debuts, fought at least eight times, and become champions. Brandon Moreno has fought to a draw for the flyweight title, won it, lost it, won an interim title, won the actual title, and lost it again.

Such is the amount of grace given Jones by the promotion to navigate the many obstacles — some unfortunate, many self-inflicted — that have repeatedly interrupted his career. And such is the motivation of the promotion to see this specific fight through, getting Jones into an octagon with Miocic and Miocic only, pushing more active and deserving contenders — none more so than Aspinall — to the side.

It's created an uncomfortable situation in which the company’s heavyweight title could change hands Saturday and be immediately vacated by Miocic’s retirement; or remain with Jones and be immediately vacated by either his own retirement or a refusal to fight Aspinall. The least likely scenario appears to be a natural continuation of the heavyweight title’s lineage, which is why when people talk about this fight, they talk about everything but the fight itself.

“Fans around the world, a lot of people really want to see me lose. To see me walk away with all the chips just irks people inside,” Jones said. “Being so good at what I do, it's almost never enough. … When I win, there's always an excuse. ‘Oh, he wasn't that well-rounded.’ It's an interesting place to be. And it's hard to compare to any other fighter because I don't think any other fighter in our sport's history has ever had to deal with it.”

Look, he’s right about that last part. Jon Jones is incomparable — one of the most talented, controversial, and accomplished fighters in the sport’s history. If UFC’s going to stop divisional traffic for anyone, it's him. Among his accolades: UFC’s youngest champion, most title fight wins, and longest unbeaten streak. Among his misdoings: five arrests, four failed drug tests, and three guilty pleas.

You can make simultaneous arguments that Jones is UFC’s greatest fighter of all time and its biggest example of wasted potential. That he’s still here, entering a title fight for a UFC-record 16th time since his 2008 debut, is remarkable. That he’s still here, among the sport’s biggest draws following myriad criminal charges, suspensions, and title strippings, is also remarkable.

“I have many regrets,” Jones said. “But I think everything that you go through in life, it shapes you. And I wouldn't have the wisdom that I have today if I hadn't gone through some of the things I've gone through. So, today, I'm a very proud man of who I am. It’s been a great career.

“But as far as retirement, the idea for me is to go out there and beat Stipe. How rude of us is it to just be completely looking past Stipe already? The main goal is to get past Stipe. And if I can do it in really dominant and devastating fashion, then the desire in my heart would be, 'OK, now it's Alex Pereira.'”

The last time we saw Miocic was in March of 2021, when pandemic restrictions forced one of the sport’s biggest fights — a heavyweight title rematch with Francis Ngannou — onto its smallest stage at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. There was no announced attendance. The atmosphere was eerily quiet. You could hear the thud of each footstep, the impact of every strike, the annunciation of any corner instruction.

And you heard the crash of Miocic dropping to the canvas when Ngannou caught him with a step-in jab less than a minute into the second round and promptly finished the fight. A stunned Miocic, leaning on referee Herb Dean for balance in the moments after only the fourth loss of his career, was the last glimpse we’d have of the former champion for over three years.

In the meantime, Ngannou went on to defend the title against Ciryl Gane in early 2022 before a lengthy, contentious contract negotiation with UFC proved fruitless and led to the Cameroonian being stripped of the belt and becoming the first reigning champion to leave the organization in two decades.

There are a couple thousand layers of nuanced context underlying what has become a prolonged and public dispute between Ngannou and the UFC, but as far as Saturday’s fight is concerned, the most material result was the vacuum it left in the company’s heavyweight division.

Enter Jones, who returned from a three-year layoff, engulfing a contract dispute of his own, to effortlessly defeat Gane for the vacant title in March 2023, becoming the sport’s eighth two-division champion. A fight with Miocic was quickly booked for later that year, but Jones tore a pectoral tendon while training, which required surgery and put the bout off until now. It’s worth remembering that for as long as fans have been waiting for this fight to happen, and this division to get going, Miocic has been waiting, too.

“I wasn't mad that he got hurt. I was mad and pissed off because I was at that point where you're so close. I almost had it. And then, gone,” Miocic said between bites of a vegetable wrap and potato salad on Wednesday. “I just really wanted to fight. It’s the best of the best. People want to see it. It's a fight I really wanted. It's a great legacy fight. Unfortunately, he got injured. It's part of the game. It happened. But I was pissed off.”

In the meantime, the athletically gifted Aspinall — who will weigh in as the main event’s back-up fighter — has emerged as UFC’s heavyweight standard-bearer. He has first-round stoppages of UFC’s No. 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9 ranked heavyweights over the last three years. He’s won and defended the division’s interim title. In a meritocratic world, he’d be the one fighting Jones on Saturday. But UFC isn’t a meritocracy.

Miocic, who works as a firefighter and has two young children, doesn’t often watch UFC events — “I want to go to bed — I’m tired,” he said — and tries to stay far from the sport’s news cycle. But it’s inescapable on social media, not to mention when well-intentioned friends won’t stop messaging you about it.

And so, as he abruptly halted one fight camp and bode his time until starting another, Miocic heard it all. That he’s over the hill, that he doesn’t deserve this title shot, that Aspinall was being slighted. That Jones was cherry-picking him as an easier fight. Miocic, perpetually over it all, just kept his head down.

“I'm not worried about that. That's one thing I've learned in my career — I stopped caring what other people think,” Miocic said. “In the beginning of my career, I was a little sensitive about it. … But then I just stopped caring because I realized they don't know me, I don't know them. They're just pissed off about something and trying to take it out on me. And I couldn't care less, honestly. It's the best thing I ever did in my life.”

If Miocic feels dismissed or disrespected in the discourse surrounding this fight, he hasn’t shown it. And if he has a hunch as to what’s next for him, he hasn’t hinted at that, either. Jones has been rather blunt about his lack of interest in a fight with Aspinall if he wins on Saturday. Miocic? He won’t even entertain the question, let alone allude to an answer.

“The only thing I'm looking at is Saturday,” Miocic said. “Me and him. That's all I care about. Jon Jones. My mind is on him. And that's how it's going to be.”

Of the many, many future permutations that have been publicly deliberated in advance of this fight, few have accounted for the disarray created by one particular outcome: Miocic winning. What does UFC do then? Would they have to book an immediate rematch? Does Aspinall remain in interim purgatory forever? Would Miocic even want to fight again? Would Jones? Does Pereira’s star power remain un-maximized with another light-heavyweight defence?

A Miocic win may not be a probable outcome (he ranges from a +425 to +500 underdog) , yet it’s a possible one among the many that make Saturday a messy, potentially historic intersection for the sport. Legacy, retirements, super fights, GOAT status, the future of UFC’s preeminent division — it’s all on the table.

Wednesday, sitting with a glittering gold heavyweight belt before him, Jones doubled, tripled, quadrupled down on his unwillingness to fight Aspinall if he beats Miocic on Saturday. He said he’d be willing to vacate the title to fight Pereira; that anyone who wants to see him fight Aspinall is illogical; that “I have nothing personal against Tom,” then, only moments later, that the interim champion’s “been such an a------ that I don’t want to do business with him.”

It's your call which gambit you’re buying. Maybe it’s none of them. Doesn’t matter. Either way, Jones wins. Either way, he’s sold Saturday’s fight and hypothetical ones with Pereira or Aspinall, too. Either way, he’s still driving this bus, in full control of what happens next.