Playing Prognosticator: Dvalishvili prefers ex-champ for first title defence

While the stunning visuals inside Sphere on Saturday night will likely be the greatest topic of conversation coming from Noche UFC over the weekend, the annual September pay-per-view also delivered compelling action inside the Octagon that changed the course of multiple divisions.

For the first time since UFC 281 nearly two years ago, two titles changed hands on the same night. Both challengers dethroned the reigning champion in the event’s twin championship bouts. Merab Dvalishvhili and Valentina Shevchenko each registered unanimous decision victories to depart Las Vegas with UFC gold around their waists, shifting the direction that both the bantamweight and women’s flyweight divisions will take going forward.

With that in mind, let’s examine what should come next for the new champions and the other victorious competitors from UFC 306.

Merab Dvalishvili

“The Machine” was too much for Sean O’Malley, using his signature mix of pressure and takedowns to keep the technicolour champion on the back foot and hesitant to throw, resulting in the challenger earning scores of 49-46 and 48-47 twice to claim the bantamweight title and an 11th consecutive victory.

Unlike when O’Malley won the title and was afforded the opportunity to call his own shot in his first title defence, Dvalishvili is going to have to step in with the No. 1 contender right out of the chute, which means a showdown with unbeaten rising star Umar Nurmagomedov.

The 28-year-old contender posted a unanimous decision win over Cory Sandhagen at the start of August to move to 6-0 in the UFC and 18-0 overall, securing his place atop the list of contenders in the 135-pound weight class and making him an avid observer of Saturday’s main event. As soon as the bout concluded, oddsmakers installed Nurmagomedov as the early betting favourite in his future pairing with the new champion.

While the undefeated challenger being favoured is understandable, it also feels like continued underestimating of Dvalishvili and his presently unstoppable approach.

Nurmagomedov has the more diverse offensive arsenal without question, but so too did O’Malley, and yet the unrelenting Georgian was able to mute his output by pressing forward throughout. The spectre of the inevitable level changes and suffocating grappling that Dvalishvili deploys causes his opponents to hesitate, which gives him the space he needs to ultimately get inside and do precisely what everyone knows he’s looking to do, and over the last 11 fights, no one has been able to stop him.

So why is everyone so quick to assume Nurmagomedov will be that guy, especially after what just transpired over the weekend?

The fact that the presumptive challenger is an outstanding wrestler himself is certainly a part of the reason, as Nurmagomedov has shown several times that he has the grappling skills to hang with anyone in the division on the canvas. In theory, that should allow him to move forward with less concern about being taken down, and the new champion is certainly less effective when moving backwards.

But we’ve yet to see Nurmagomedov be forced to work off his back and contend with someone with the offensive wrestling the new champion possesses, so whenever the fight comes together — my guess is the first quarter of 2025 — it’s going to be another fascinating tactical battle.

At his media availability following his win over O’Malley, Dvalishvili said he would like to face Deiveson Figueiredo, who has gone 3-0 since moving to bantamweight and is coming off a win over recent title challenger Marlon “Chito” Vera, suggesting Nurmagomedov face Petr Yan to determine who is next in line.

It’s an understandable request given that O’Malley was allowed to pick his first challenger and Figueiredo’s championship window isn’t nearly as wide of that of “Cousin Umar,” but it’s more likely that the Brazilian will be the one facing the former champion Yan while Dvalishvili defends against Nurmagomedov.

Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko was rightfully aggrieved with the way things played out last year at the inaugural Noche UFC, where an unmerited 10-8 score for Alexa Grasso in the fifth round of their championship rematch resulted in the bout being scored a draw and the title remaining with the incumbent.

“Bullet” made it clear that she was the better fighter of the two, repeatedly putting Grasso on the canvas, advancing to dominant positions, and grinding out a win. While the champion had a smattering of submission looks that forced the challenger to shift her focus to defence at times, Shevchenko was largely in control as she reclaimed her throne.

Next up is Manon Fiorot, the 34-year-old French standout who cemented her standing as the No. 1 contender back in March with a unanimous decision win over Erin Blanchfield in Atlantic City. She served as the back-up for the championship pairing over the weekend and will likely find herself in the Octagon with Shevchenko within the next six months, provided the past and present ruler of the 125-pound weight class emerged unscathed from her latest title win.

The eventual matchup between Shevchenko and Fiorot will likely hinge on the champion’s ability to wrestle, as the challenger is bigger and more physical than the two-time titleholder, and has the technical kickboxing skills to stand with her, in theory.

We’ve yet to see anyone be able to keep Fiorot from dictating the terms of engagement, yet alone put her on the canvas or control her in any meaningful way, but Shevchenko has shown repeatedly that she has outstanding, technical grappling and uncanny timing on her level changes and entries.

Will it carry over into a clash with “The Beast” next year? That’s the question we’ll be looking to have answered when we tune into their championship clash whenever it happens.

Diego Lopes

The streaking Brazilian secured his fifth consecutive victory inside the Octagon over the weekend, hurting Brian Ortega early and late, while largely controlling the interceding action as well.

In just 16 months on the UFC roster, Lopes has gone from making his debut on short-notice and impressing in a losing effort to earning a place in the top five and a legitimate case for a championship opportunity. After collecting quick finishes in each of his first three wins, he’s garnered back-to-back decision wins over Dan Ige and Ortega to put himself on the short list of title contenders in the 145-pound ranks as we head into the final quarter of the 2024 campaign.

Unfortunately for Lopes, there is a bit of a logjam at the top of the division at the moment, with champion Ilia Topuria set to defend against former titleholder and BMF champ Max Holloway next month in Abu Dhabi, and long-time divisional ruler Alexander Volkanovski waiting in the wings. As such, the Brazilian Warriors and Lobo Gym representative will likely have to win one more in order to maintain his place in the queue as he waits for an opportunity to open up.

Fortunately, there is an obvious matchup out there for him, as Lopes should face the winner of the impending bout between Evloev and Aljamain Sterling, which is scheduled to take place at the start of next month in Salt Lake City.

If Evloev wins, it’s sets up a full-camp rematch between the two after their competitive clash at UFC 288 last year. If Sterling emerges victorious, it gives him a second consecutive win in the division and put him in line for a title eliminator. With Volkanovski currently holding a rematch ticket he can cash at any time, pairing Lopes with the winner of this one feels like an easy fix and a guaranteed exciting fight to determine who’s got next heading into the back half of 2025.

QUICK HITTERS FOR OTHER UFC 306 WINNERS

Esteban Ribovics: After picking up Fight of the Night honours and a third straight win by besting Daniel Zellhuber over the weekend, how about a date with another ascending name from Dana White’s Contender Series like Ismael Bonfim next?

Ronaldo Rodriguez: “Lazy Boy” is still a work in progress, and as such, a date with the winner of the upcoming bout between Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez feels like the right next step.

Norma Dumont: Having pushed her winning streak to five, a rematch with the last person to beat her, Macy Chiasson, is the only fight that makes sense for “Big Norm” going forward.

Ignacio Bahamondes: With back-to-back first-round finishes, Bahamondes is due a step up in competition. A pairing with British veteran Jai Herbert would be a solid test for the long-range sniper.

Joshua Van: Now 4-1 in the UFC and moving in the right direction again, what about pairing Van off with Cody Durden, who scored a short-notice win of his own a couple weeks ago?

Ketlen Souza: The former Invicta FC champ posted a “club and sub” win over Yazmin Jauregui and would be a great dance partner for fellow ascending strawweight Loma Lookboonmee whenever the 28-year-old Thai fighter is ready to return.

Raul Rosas Jr.: “El Niño Problema” posted a third straight win and called for a top-15 opportunity, but he’s honestly not ready for that just yet. The winner of the upcoming bout between Brady Hiestand and Jake Hadley feels like a better fit.