Playing Prognosticator: What should be next for Makhachev after UFC 302?

In the wake of UFC 302, a great deal of the focus has been on Dustin Poirier, who came up short in his bid to claim the undisputed lightweight title and thereby “finish his story,” to use the phrase borrowed from Cody Rhodes’ run to becoming Undisputed WWE Champion at the most recent WrestleMania.

Poirier was denied his fairytale ending by Islam Makhachev, the reigning champion and top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport today, who submitted the challenger in the fifth round of their main event clash in Newark, New Jersey to add his name to the lightweight record books.

Being the “secondary story” after impressive outings is becoming a regular occurrence for the dominant champion.

His efforts to beat Alexander Volkanovski in their first meeting last year took a backseat to heaping praise on the Australian featherweight for how well he did in defeat, and then his knockout win over “Alexander the Great” in their rematch in October was relegated to being the B-side of post-UFC 294 discussions that focused more on the then-featherweight champion’s decision to hustle into a short-notice opportunity and what the knockout meant in the grand scheme of his career.

Even when it comes to knocking out the previously unbeatable Volkanovski, Makhachev doing it first garnered less acclaim than Ilia Topuria replicating the feat a few months later to unseat the long-reigning champion from the bantamweight throne.

When you put it all together, one can understand why Makhachev came out of Saturday’s pay-per-view talking about the need to earn a second title in a different weight class to truly be considered great these days.

After all, he has won 14 consecutive bouts, successfully defended his title three times (tied for most all-time in the division), and ran his lightweight winning streak to 13, establishing a new divisional record, and yet it still feels like people aren’t quite convinced of his greatness.

Let’s get a few things clear: Makhachev is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport right now, is getting mighty close to being the best lightweight to ever compete in the Octagon (if he’s not there already), and shouldn’t need to go chase the welterweight title in order to make those first two statements undeniable.

Conor McGregor made “Double Champ” status the thing every champion looked to do after he chased down the lightweight title in November 2016, and over the next 2.5 years three more titleholders followed suit with Daniel Cormier, Amanda Nunes, and Henry Cejudo all accomplishing the feat.

Since then, it’s the first thing out of almost every new champion’s mouth, and one of the things the truly brash hopefuls talk about before they’ve even sniffed Title No. 1, which is just something you should never do; ask Brandon Vera.

But McGregor was a special case — the biggest star in the sport looking to make history and replicate his Cage Warriors achievements — and both Cormier and Nunes were in a position where they had cleaned out their original division and had massive fight awaiting them elsewhere.

Cejudo was an outlier that benefitted from a unique conflict, hustling into a bantamweight title fight after TJ Dillashaw, whom he’d just defeated at flyweight, was stripped of the title. The Olympic gold medalist, who hadn’t fought in the division since his promotional debut 10 fights earlier, was tabbed to take on Marlon Moraes for the vacant title and secured his “Double Champ” status — and the opportunity to dub himself “Triple C” — by collecting a third-round stoppage win.

There have only been three instances since then when a champion in one weight class has ventured up to challenge for gold in another, and all three times, it hasn’t worked out for the titleholder climbing the ladder.

Israel Adesanya came up short in his bid to claim the light heavyweight title, losing to Jan Blachowicz, and Volkanovski went 0-2 against Makhachev last year. Excluding Volk’s short-notice rematch, Adesanya’s attempt and Volkanovski’s initial attempt to win a second belt made sense, as the friends and teammates had each done away with all the readily available challengers in their “home division” and the timing for a big fight against another champion seemed right at the time.

I say all of that in order to say this: while I completely understand Makhachev wanting to chase a goal that would (hopefully) bring him greater acclaim, and would even like to see him fight for the welterweight title at some point, it shouldn’t be next, because he’s got a contender waiting for him at lightweight and Arman Tsarukyan should absolutely get his chance to challenge for UFC gold next.

Makhachev should want to stick around and defend the belt against Tsarukyan as well, as the story between the two and opportunity to potentially be the “good guy” in a championship fight for once could be exactly what he needs to vault himself to that greater level of recognition and respect.

He and Tsarukyan fought five years ago when Makhachev was still on the come-up behind Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tsarukyan was debuting in the promotion. It was a competitive affair where Tsarukyan became the main post-fight talking point (it really is a trend with Makhachev) for turning up after an abbreviated camp and giving Khabib’s understudy all he could handle in his first appearance in the Octagon.

Since then, the 27-year-old has developed into a legitimate contender in the lightweight division, rattling off nine wins in his last 10 fights, with his one setback coming in an ultra-competitive bout with Mateusz Gamrot a couple summers back that many believe could have — and maybe should have — been scored in favour of Tsarukyan.

He punched his ticket to a title shot with a unanimous decision win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 and shouldn’t be denied in order for Makhachev to go up and jump the queue at welterweight, where Shavkat Rakhmonov stands unbeaten, waiting to see the outcome of the UFC 304 title bout between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. Others like Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry linger close by.

The champion should defend against the No. 1 contender next, and UFC CEO Dana White said it’s what is likely to happen in his post-UFC 302 media scrum.

If he gets through that one with the belt and his winning streak intact, then let’s start talking about chasing another belt in another division, but for now, there is still work for him to do at lightweight.

FIGHTS TO MAKE FOR OTHER UFC 302 WINNERS

Sean Strickland: The former middleweight champ called for a title opportunity following his unanimous decision win over Paulo Costa, and there is a part of me that understands, given that the guy he beat for the belt, Israel Adesanya, seems like he’s getting the next crack at Dricus Du Plessis.

But a win over Costa in an uninspiring fight when the winner of the impending fight between Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev will have a pretty strong case as well makes a title eliminator with the winner of that one seem like a more logical direction to take rather than having Strickland sit on the sidelines waiting for a championship fight.

Randy Brown: “Rude Boy” politely asked Geoff Neal to defend his place in the rankings, and with the Fortis MMA man coming off consecutive losses (to Rakhmonov and Machado Garry), it feels like a matchup that works on both sides.

Brown gets the top-15 fight he’s long coveted, and Neal gets a chance to get things moving in the right direction again by facing someone a couple spots behind him in the pecking order that doesn’t carry the same “future champion” tag his last two opponents have long had draped around their necks.

Kevin Holland: Back at middleweight and embracing life as a gatekeeper in two divisions, don’t be surprised if the UFC asks Holland to step in opposite Ikram Aliskerov in two weeks after the dark horse contender’s original opponent, Andre Muniz, was forced to withdraw late last week.

Jailton Almeida: In mentioning that he’d like to see Paris at some point, Almeida made everyone, including yours truly, think about a matchup between he and Ciryl Gane this fall in “The City of Light.” Almeida established his floor in the heavyweight division by running through Alexander Romanov on Saturday, and Gane hasn’t fought since his good-but-not-great effort against Serghei Spivac last year in Paris, so a meeting between the talented Brazilian and the former interim champion sounds like a perfect main event for the UFC’s late September return to France.