Playing Prognosticator: Who should be next to test Pantoja's chin after UFC 301?

In the wake of Saturday’s pay-per-view return to Brazil, some interesting questions about what comes next for the key victors at UFC 301 and others that used the electric evening in Rio de Janeiro to elevate their stock have emerged.

Who should get the next title shot in the flyweight division? What does the future hold for Jose Aldo? How good are surging middleweights Michel Pereira and Caio Borralho?

As has become the custom, it’s my pleasure to try to and present some options for everyone to consider as we begin to shift our focus from the night that was to what may come next.

Alexandre Pantoja

The 125-pound men’s rankings were in an odd place coming out of last year and through the opening quarter of 2024, which is why we ended up with Pantoja defending his title against Steve Erceg at UFC 301 in a bout that ended up out-pacing expectations by a considerable margin, while still leaving us with no real clarity about where we should go from here.

There is no clear “next man up” in the flyweight division at the moment, though Brandon Royval would likely beg to differ.

He’s certainly on the short list of potential dance partners for the Brazilian champion, but a second title fight between the two — and third meeting overall — this quickly, when Pantoja is already up 2-0 in the series feels hasty. The same goes for an immediate rematch with Erceg, who was excellent on Saturday night, but should have to collect a victory or two before fighting for gold again.

Muhammad Mokaev is the next logical choice based on who is currently active in the division, given that he’s 6-0 in the UFC and bested Alex Perez in March, a win that has aged nicely given Perez’s exploits last month. The undefeated rising star teased a fight announcement over the weekend, so it’s entirely possible the next title challenger is whomever wins the presumably forthcoming battle between “The Punisher” and his mystery dance partner.

And that honestly feels like the right choice. Allow Pantoja to take a few months off after having earned three wins in 11 months, dress Mokaev’s next fight as a title eliminator, and book the winner against the champ in December.

For the record: my guess is Mokaev fights Amir Albazi in Manchester, as “The Prince” just returned to training and is the only active name ahead of him that makes sense at this point.

Jose Aldo

“The King of Rio” returned on Saturday night and showed that he still has something to offer the bantamweight division, posting a unanimous decision victory over Jonathan Martinez to halt the Factory X man’s six-fight winning streak. After the contest, Aldo said he’d have to sit down the UFC brass to figure out his next move, as that bout was the last on his current contract, though I can’t see there being too many stumbling blocks when it comes to keeping one of the best of his generation in the fold going forward, especially given that he (1) wants to keep fighting and (2) looked exceptional at UFC 301.

The idea of a “Remember the WEC” bout with Dominick Cruz has appeal, but Cruz hasn’t fought since August 2022, hasn’t won since December 2021, and honestly feels like a backwards step if Aldo is trying to make one last run at UFC gold.

Aldo versus Cory Sandhagen could’ve been an appealing matchup prior to Sandhagen’s booking against Umar Nurmagomedov.

The former champion could be positioned as a “beat this killer and you can have a title shot” opportunity for a rising contender. That kind of matchup could afford him a faster path to potentially fighting for a UFC title one final time than a bout with Cruz would. Five rounds is a must whoever the opponent, regardless of whether it’s a Fight Night main event or a supporting piece of a pay-per-view card later in the year.

Anthony Smith

Smith “silenced his critics” at UFC 301, submitting Vitor Petrino in the opening round.

The reason “silenced his critics” is in quotes is because people weren’t so much being critical of Smith as they were taking stock of his recent efforts, his age, the amount of fights he’s had over the years, and asking reasonable questions about how much he’s got left in the tank and how things may play out against a previously unbeaten young buck in Petrino. It’s the kind of thing “critics” do literally every week, multiple times over, because it’s very much a part of the gig.

With that said, this was a nice win in a spot where Smith needed one, and given that he’s likely going to be stumping for an opportunity to fight forward after facing a couple guys positioned behind him in the rankings, there are two reasonable options to consider here.

Option No. 1 is Nikita Krylov, who hasn’t fought since submitting frequent Smith foe Ryan Spann in March 2023, but is on a three-fight winning streak and a couple spots ahead of him in the divisional rankings as of this writing.

Option No. 2 is Jan Blachowicz, the former light-heavyweight champion who dropped a split decision to current champ Alex Pereira last July and is on the mend after multiple surgeries. If Smith really wants to garner another championship opportunity, beating someone that previously held the belt and ran close to level with “Poatan” is a pretty good way to make his case.

Rapid Fire for Saturday's Other Winners

Michel Pereira: Now 3-0 in the middleweight division with three rapid stoppage wins, how about a matchup with Roman Dolidze, who needs a dance partner for UFC 302 with Anthony Hernandez getting scratched?

Caio Borralho: While he called out Jared Cannonier, the former title challenger already has a fight booked for the summer and might be too far ahead of Borralho at this point. Instead, let’s do a main event with Jack Hermansson, who out-worked Joe Pyfer in February and feels like a proper step up for Borralho at this point.

Joanderson Brito: The Brazilian keeps cussing out Dan Ige after every win, so let’s just go ahead and make the one happen. Xtreme Couture head coach Eric Nicksick told me Sunday that Ige does not currently have a fight and “would fight him and/or anyone else.”

Iasmin Lucindo: The youngest female fighter on the UFC roster has now won three straight, will likely enter the rankings when they update next, and needs another slight step up in competition after her win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The winner of this summer’s bout between Gillian Robertson and Michelle Waterson-Gomez seems like a good fit.

Myktybek Orolbai: It wasn’t pretty, but Orolbai posted a second straight UFC win over the weekend, out-lasting Elves Brener in a battle of attrition. He’s knocking on the door of the Top 15, and a date with the winner of the UFC 302 scrap between Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki would work as follow-up.

Drakkar Klose: He lobbied for a matchup with Jalin Turner following his win in Rio, and you know what? That feels like a quality matchup to me.

Mauricio Ruffy: The newcomer looked extremely sharp in dispatching Jamie Mullarkey, but after just one start, let’s not rush him along too quickly. Ignacio Bahamondes looked sharp in beating Christos Giagos recently, so let’s pair them off and reassess when the smoke clears.

Dione Barbosa: This one feels pretty easy, as Barbosa just picked up her first UFC win, one week after Ivana Petrovic did the same in Las Vegas. Square them off, see who moves forward.

Ismael Bonfim: Now that he’s back moving in a positive direction, how about pitting Bonfim against Brad Riddell whenever “Quake” is once again ready to return to action? He was slated to come back earlier this year, but was forced to withdraw, so maybe August in Perth?

Alessandro Costa: “Nono” collected a second-round stoppage win on Saturday to move to 2-2 in the UFC. Charles Johnson and Jake Hadley fight this weekend in St. Louis, and a date with the winner would make a great deal of sense going forward.