State of the heavyweights: New era begins at UFC 295 minus Jones, Ngannou

The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden Saturday in New York with a pair of title fights that each represent an unofficial reset to the two biggest divisions in mixed martial arts.

UFC 295 is headlined by a 205-pound title bout in which the vacated light-heavyweight belt will be awarded to either Jiri Prochazka or Alex Pereira, while two of the top heavyweight finishers in MMA, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall, will compete for an interim heavyweight title in the co-main event.

The event was initially supposed to be headlined by Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, however that changed in October when Jones sustained a pectoral injury during training and withdrew from the event. Instead of giving Miocic a new opponent, the UFC postponed his bout with Jones and instead announced the interim championship matchup we’ll see Saturday night.

While Jones-Miocic was set up as more of a legacy matchup of sorts, MSG’s new heavyweight tilt features two athletes in their prime. Pavlovich-Aspinall is a championship matchup many had predicted would happen; we’re just getting it a year or two ahead of schedule.

Both men have elite finishing instincts and have enjoyed ascending the rankings. Whoever gets his hand raised Saturday could conceivably carry this division’s storied torch for quite some time. They both appear to have the potential to reign atop the weight weight class…at least until Jones is healthy enough to return and re-mark his territory as the true alpha.

With the UFC set to introduce an interim title in Saturday’s co-main event, we felt it a fitting time to look at the current state of the heavyweight division and its key players.

THE (INJURED) CHAMPION

Jon Jones: The G.O.A.T. returned from a three-year absence and made quick work of Ciryl Gane to win the vacant title in March. Jones added probably 30 pounds of functional weight to his frame in the leadup to his heavyweight debut and his physical strength, not to mention his vastly superior grappling technique, was on full display at UFC 285 when he submitted Gane with ease to win his second UFC title in as many weight classes. Jones hadn’t fought in more than three years and there wasn’t much new data to analyze from the 124 seconds he spent in the cage in his heavyweight debut. Gane laid an egg that night

It’s entirely possible the heavyweight version of Jones is an all-around scarier version of the Jones who for years used to cut down to 205 pounds and dominate the light-heavyweight ranks. Hopefully Jones-Miocic can take place in 2024 once Jones has fully recovered.

THE FORMER CHAMPION

Francis Ngannou: We’d be remiss not to mention the former UFC kingpin who, prior to his contract rift and split with the UFC, was the undisputed champion considered the most devastating knockout artist in MMA history. He has since signed with the Professional Fighters League although it’s unclear when he’ll make his PFL debut. In fact, after going the distance and knocking down lineal heavyweight boxing champion Tyson Fury in their 10-rounder last month, it’s not outlandish to think of Ngannou as being a bigger boxing star at the moment than he is an MMA star. Combat sports fans should not at all be surprised if Ngannou’s next fight is another high-profile boxing match against a superstar like Anthony Joshua or Deontay Wilder, or even a rematch with Fury. Any potential MMA matchup in PFL would likely involve Ngannou facing a tomato can so to speak, which is why another boxing match is perhaps more likely. It’s the more marketable and profitable option.

Ngannou’s recent rise to superstardom is not something UFC president Dana White would’ve predicted back when he said Ngannou will “never be in the UFC again.” The UFC is renowned for not wanting to co-promote fights or events, however they did in 2017 when copious sums of money was available for Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr.

MMA has a constantly-changing landscape, and if organizations don’t adapt they die. Would the UFC really dig their heels in and reject negotiations altogether if the possibility of a co-promoted super-fight in 2024 between Jones and Ngannou presented itself? It would be the biggest fight the sport could conceivably put together, one to determine who is MMA’s greatest heavyweight.

CHAMPIONSHIP MATERIAL

Sergei Pavlovich: Sculpted like a character from a John Wick movie whose sole purpose is to guard important doorways and bash skulls, this powerful Russian knockout artist is right up there with Ngannou as the most dangerous puncher in the entire sport. Pavlovich enters UFC 295 riding a streak of six consecutive first-round knockouts, four of which earned him a performance bonus. To put it simply, Pavlovich beats people up and the more willing you are to throw hands with him the shorter your night typically lasts.

The 31-year-old should not be viewed as invincible by any stretch, though. He lost his UFC debut in 2018 when he took a fight on short notice with Alistair Overeem. That was the one UFC contest in which Pavlovich was taken down and Overeem took full advantage with good control and heavy ground-and-pound to earn a first-round technical knockout win. Pavlovich’s six fights since his first and only loss have been brief, so it’s not entirely clear how much he has sealed off the holes in his game. Many times the fight is over before his takedown defence is tested.

Tom Aspinall: The Brit is 13-3 yet only one of those losses means anything and it occurred in 2015 in his fourth pro fight. His two losses since then were a 2016 disqualification for an illegal elbow on the U.K. circuit and a freak knee injury seconds into his 2022 main event versus Curtis Blaydes. Built like an explosive NFL pass rusher, Aspinall might possess the best combination of speed and well-rounded skill in a heavyweight since a young Cain Velasquez with high-level finishing ability on the feet and on the mat.

TOP VETERAN CONTENDERS

Ciryl Gane: The Frenchman can defeat any heavyweight on any given night…if the fight stays on the feet or only goes to the ground on his terms. Gane’s two losses in MMA were to Ngannou and Jones, both of whom used their ground games to secure victory.

Curtis Blaydes: Essentially, you’re not beating Blaydes unless you are a top-of-the-food-chain knockout artist. He has four losses in his MMA career, all knockouts. Twice to Ngannou, once to Derrick Lewis and earlier this year against Pavlovich. Blaydes has perhaps the best wrestling in the division besides Jones while also possessing heavyweight power on the feet and on the ground.

Stipe Miocic: The former two-time champion is 41, hasn’t fought since 2021 and hasn’t won since 2020, so at this point it’s a mystery which version of Miocic returns to the cage, presumably against Jones sometime in 2024 unless UFC brass decide to pivot. Being long in the tooth matters less at heavyweight than in any other division and stylistically Miocic can still pose problems for many in the top 10.

Alexander Volkov: The other Russian in the top 10, Volkov remains an upper tier heavyweight who’s currently on a three-fight finishing streak. He has only lost to elite competition since signing with the UFC in 2016. One of the best to never have fought for a title.

POSSIBLE FUTURE CONTENDERS WITH WORK TO DO

Jailton Almeida: Despite being one of the smaller heavyweight contenders, the Brazilian was able to control Derrick Lewis for five rounds using superior grappling technique this past weekend in his second consecutive Fight Night main event victory. He wasn’t able to lock in a submission and didn’t inflict much damage, which was surprising, however Almeida is still undefeated as a heavyweight and now 7-0 in the UFC. He's 32 and slowly closing in on title contention.

Shamil Gaziev: The Dagestani heavyweight is a promising, undefeated fighter coming off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series and can crack the rankings when he faces No. 15-ranked contender Martin Buday at December’s UFC 296. The UFC will continue plucking talent from the DWCS farm system in the hopes of adding more talent like Gaziev.

Mohammed Usman: The 34-year-old powerhouse is the brother of Kamaru Usman. He has won five in a row overall since 2022 including his work en route to winning a recent season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Hamdy Abdelwahab: The stocky Egyptian could be a fun x-factor. He is currently serving a suspension after testing positive for a banned substance following his split decision win over Don'Tale Mayes at UFC 277. The 30-year-old could return to action 2024. He’s an Olympic-level Greco-Roman wrestler with five knockouts in six MMA fights.

FAN FAVOURITES & TOUGH OUTS

Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Justin Tafa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik are among those capable of turning anyone’s lights out on any given night. None have imposing wrestling offence or defence, which limits them overall. Give them a willing dance partner, though, and there’s a good chance at least one performance bonus will be handed out.

Serghei Spivac is one of the only relevant heavyweights under 30 years of age in the UFC. He’s also one of the more experienced guys on the roster whose abilities have not yet peaked. The Alexander Romanovs, Rodrigo Nascimentos, Waldo Cortes-Acostas and Martin Budays of the world also have untapped potential but need to start beating ranked opponents regularly before being considered anything besides gatekeepers at best.

OUTSIDE THE UFC

Outside of Ngannou there’s is a dearth of top-tier heavyweight talent, which makes sense since it's the thinnest and most top-heavy of all men's divisions. Anatoly Malykhin has a nice highlight reel over in ONE FC yet his overall level of competition puts into question his place in the division. Former UFC star Ryan Bader remains Bellator’s heavyweight champion but tougher competition can be found in that organization’s 205-pound division.

Official UFC Heavyweight Fighter Rankings pre-UFC 295:
*Jon Jones
1. Ciryl Gane
2. Sergei Pavlovich
3. Stipe Miocic
4. Tom Aspinall
5. Curtis Blaydes
6. Alexander Volkov
7. Serghei Spivac
8. Tai Tuivasa
9. Jailton Almeida
10. Derrick Lewis
11. Marcin Tybura
12. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
13. Alexandr Romanov
14. Marcos Rogerio De Lima
15. Martin Buday