UFC 272 betting preview: Will Masvidal silence Covington by KO?

The heated rivalry between friends-turned-foes Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal is set to reach its boiling point this weekend at UFC 272.

Covington and Masvidal used to be in each other’s corner but the former roommates and American Top Team training partners had a falling out several years ago as their individual stardom grew.

Masvidal alleges Covington failed to pay a coach for training camp services provided, while Covington claims Masvidal became jealous of the success Covington was having during his memorable winning streak from 2016-2019.

Although it lacks any title implications for the 170-pound division, UFC 272’s headliner is perhaps the organization’s most anticipated pay-per-view-worthy grudge match since 2018’s Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor or the 2017 rematch between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier.

A prizefight -- with a clear emphasis on the second syllable.

BETTING ODDS
Covington to win -310 | Masvidal to win +240 | Draw +5500
Covington by stoppage +200 | Masvidal by stoppage +350
Covington by decision -115 | Masvidal by decision +750
Over 4.5 rounds -165 | Under 4.5 rounds +125

This fight opened with Covington at -190 so if you were planning on siding with the favourite then it was wise to place your moneyline bet several weeks ago to get ahead of the line movement.

Masvidal is in a familiar spot as the underdog. In fact, his 2019 BMF bout with Nate Diaz is the only time he has been the betting favourite in five years. Meanwhile, Covington is accustomed to being favoured over anyone not named Kamaru Usman.

If this fight plays out the way oddsmakers expect it to, Covington will have his hand raised after winning a judges’ decision. Any other result could mean a juicy payout for bettors.

It’ll be interesting to see how or if emotions will factor into either fighter’s strategy and performance, but another thing to consider: Masvidal’s closing odds against Usman in their rematch were +250. Covington is quantifiably a step down in competition relative to the champion, so that the line has moved as far as it has could be a red flag.

No, MMA math doesn’t always add up and Covington could very well handle Masvidal more impressively than Usman did, however it is something to consider when contemplating value ahead of placing a wager.

Speaking of the reigning welterweight champion…

USMAN BREAKS DOWN COVINGTON VS. MASVIDAL
Few fighters have insight into Covington and Masvidal like Usman. The 170-pound kingpin holds two victories over both fighters in the past three years – one by unanimous decision, one by stoppage each – and he recently broke down the UFC 272 main event.

The champ said he thinks Covington has slowed down and fought more calculated since leaving ATT. Conventional wisdom suggests Masvidal will have a significant edge on the feet, but Usman has a more nuanced take.

“Colby Covington is not a bad striker,” Usman told ESPN’s Megan Olivi. “I know he gets the nod for his grappling and for his wrestling ability, but he's not a bad striker. … I think his ability to make you think (he's going to wrestle) is what's very, very good (about his standup). Covington had some sneaky shots in there (against me). They weren't hard, they were sneaky, and those are the ones that always hurt you.”

Overall, Usman took a fairly diplomatic stance on the potential outcome.

“My prediction is Jorge Masvidal could, in an exchange, land something that potentially gets Covington out of there,” Usman explained. “Or Colby Covington can go there, get a hold of him, drag him down, make him stand up, drag him down, exchange with him, get a hold of him, drag him down and just slowly wear on him and wear on him and wear on him until he is able to squeak out that unanimous decision.”

IF YOU’RE RIDING WITH COVINGTON…
You’ll want to see him push the pace and wear down Masvidal like he has so many of his previous opponents. In theory, the longer the fight goes the bigger Covington’s advantage will be, assuming he’s able to close the distance and get Masvidal on his back foot in the first place.

There’s little value in betting Covington on the moneyline. If you’d like to sweat out 25 minutes of a Masvidal KO threat then by all means -115 is a fair price on Covington by decision. Covington specifically by unanimous decision gets you a slight bump in value to +110.

If you’d like to inject a little “Chaos” into your life, though, a surprise late-round stoppage would return incredible value.

High-value Covington prop bets:
Covington by third-round stoppage +1200
Covington by fourth-round stoppage +1600
Covington by fifth-round stoppage +1800

A former interim welterweight titleholder, Covington has gone toe-to-toe on the feet with UFC champions past and present like Robbie Lawler, Rafael Dos Anjos, Tyron Woodley and Usman. Anyone saying Covington won’t stand with Masvidal is misguided. It would, however, be wise of Covington to grind on Masvidal early to deplete his opponent’s energy and power.

We’ve seen Masvidal get pushed against the cage and forced into defensive mode when competing against superior grapplers, which Covington is.

Covington’s bouts nearly always get to a third round yet it’s unfair to call him a decision machine. Five of his 11 UFC wins have been by stoppage. Few are expecting him to end the fight in the first 10 minutes, but would it be unrealistic to see him overwhelm a fatigued opponent?

Masvidal hasn’t fought since his devastating knockout loss to Usman last April. We had never seen him finished like that before and at age 37 and 50 pro fights into his MMA career, it begs the question: is his chin the same? Covington is not known for his power but certainly has enough to significantly hurt Masvidal if he catches him with a well-time strike.

IF YOU’RE RIDING WITH MASVIDAL…
You’re getting solid underdog value on a fight that could be much closer than it would appear on paper. These fighters know each other well and this matchup is rife with intangibles.

Masvidal’s likely method of victory is a knockout. There’s no getting around it. His past five UFC wins have all finished inside the distance and history suggests Masvidal’s likelihood of winning three or more rounds are rather low. Seven of Masvidal’s eight losses in the UFC have been by decision, which is why you see +750 beside Masvidal’s name if it goes 25 minutes.

There’s enough built-in value that you don’t need to get fancy if you’re on the Masvidal side. If he snaps his losing streak with a stoppage you get a +350 return. If he can do it in the first two rounds there are opportunities for a bonus.

High-value Masvidal prop bets:
Masvidal by first-round stoppage +900
Masvidal by second-round stoppage +1200

Covington wasn’t removed from consciousness by Usman the way Masvidal was, however he was dropped twice in both fights.

Masvidal came through clutch as a dog for his supporters in knockout wins over Donald Cerrone, Darren Till and Ben Askren and wants to repeat that type of statement at UFC 272.

MAIN CARD
-- Colby Covington (-310) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+240)
-- Rafael dos Anjos (-175) vs. Renato Moicano (+140)
-- Edson Barboza (+135) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-160)
-- Kevin Holland (-400) vs. Alex Oliveira (+285)
-- Sergey Spivak (-200) vs. Greg Hardy (+160)

PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Jalin Turner (-155) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+130)
-- Marina Rodriguez (-265) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+210)
-- Nicolae Negumereanu (+120) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-145)
-- Maryna Moroz (+155) vs. Mariya Agapova (-190)
-- Brian Kelleher (+575) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-1200)
-- Tim Elliott (+190) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-230)
-- Devonte Smith (-150) vs. Ludovit Klein (+125)
-- Michal Oleksiejczuk (+160) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-200)

(Listed betting odds via Bodog as of Friday afternoon, rounded to nearest multiple of five)