It’s not often a main and co-main event both fall apart less than two weeks prior to a major mixed martial arts card and the replacement bouts are better than the original matchups, but that is arguably what we have with UFC 294.
A champion vs. champion bout plus an unexpected title eliminator now headline the UFC’s anticipated return to Abu Dhabi.
Reigning lightweight champion Islam Makhachev was originally scheduled for a rematch with former 155-pound champ Charles Oliveira, however, the Brazilian withdrew from UFC 294 due to a cut he sustained over one of his eyebrows during a sparring session. Current featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski is filling in on short notice for another crack at becoming the UFC’s latest double champ.
Makhachev defeated Volkanovski in a competitive five-round unanimous decision at UFC 284 earlier this year and the 145-pound kingpin leaped at the chance to avenge the only loss of his UFC career.
The new co-main event sees former welterweight contender Khamzat Chimaev returning to action against former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, except these two are competing in a middleweight title eliminator with the winner expected to face current champion Sean Strickland at a later date. This matchup came together after Chimaev’s original opponent, Paulo Costa, was not given medical clearance after recently undergoing surgery on an elbow infection.
Many MMA fans have thought it was merely a matter of time before Chimaev fought for a title. Usman holds a previous win over Strickland, so there are compelling storylines built in regardless of who emerges victorious.
All fighters competing on the main card made weight successfully on Friday. Mateusz Gamrot, the No. 6-ranked lightweight contender, also made championship weight as the official backup fighter for the main event in the case either Makhachev or Volkanovski are unable to compete at the eleventh hour.
With that in mind, here’s a closer look at the two featured bouts and the corresponding betting odds.
ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS. ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI
Makhachev to win -250 | Volkanovski to win +200 | Draw +5000
Makhachev by decision +150 | Volkanovski by decision +450
Makhachev by KO/TKO/DQ +400 | Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ +550
Makhachev by submission +250 | Volkanovski by submission +2000
Over 4.5 rounds -120 | Under 4.5 rounds -110
Fight to go the distance: Yes -105 | No -125
In addition to the lightweight belt being on the line, pound-for-pound standing is also at stake as Volkanovski is currently the No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC and Makhachev No. 3, both behind Jon Jones.
The last time the organization held an event at Etihad Arena was UFC 280 one year ago. Makhachev won the lightweight title plus a Performance of the Night bonus that night when he submitted Oliveira with a second-round arm-triangle choke.
Makhachev had the crowd behind him that night and will on again on Saturday. That wasn’t the case during his first bout with Volkanovski since that event took place in Volkanovski’s native Australia.
Volkanovski is a two-to-one underdog this time compared to roughly a three-to-one dog before their first meeting. The main variables here are this time Volkanovski, coming off a dominant title defence over Yair Rodriguez in July, didn’t have a full training camp and even though Makhachev did, he had been preparing for a fighter with a very different style and body type in Oliveira. Makhachev also cut a lot of weight, which could affect his conditioning in the later rounds if it gets there, and that’s something Volkanovski is aware of.
Volkanovski was finished by strikes at welterweight in his fourth pro fight more than a decade ago. Since then he has gone 24 fights without being finished and nine of his 14 total UFC bouts have gone the distance; he has fought the full 25 minutes five times in the UFC since 2019. Makhachev has only seen the championship rounds twice in his UFC career.
Makhachev was knocked out in his second UFC bout back in 2015 but has been dominant ever since, winning 12 fights in a row and he had finished five consecutive opponents prior to facing Volkanovski. Makhachev hasn’t fought since beating Volkanovski in February but his status as the clear favourite is earned.
KAMARU USMAN VS. KHAMZAT CHIMAEV
Usman to win +265 | Chimaev to win -345 | Draw +5000
Usman by decision +500 | Chimaev by decision +275
Usman by KO/TKO/DQ +550 | Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ +175
Usman by submission +2200 | Chimaev by submission +275
Over 2.5 rounds +130 | Under 2.5 rounds -170
Fight to go the distance: Yes +150 | No -208
This is Usman’s first scheduled three-round bout since January of 2018 and his first time closing as an underdog since his initial welterweight title bout against Tyron Woodley more than four years ago. Chimaev was only 4-0 in MMA when Usman became UFC champ and was still a year away from signing with the UFC.
Chimaev has been a heavy favourite in all his UFC matchups and is expected to remain undefeated based on the odds above. Fans and sportsbooks tend to hype up Chimaev’s immense potential whenever he competes, so naturally there are some additional props listed.
Chimaev in 60 seconds or less +1300 | Usman in 60 seconds or less +2500 | Either fighter to win in 60 seconds or less +900
Two of Chimaev’s 11 stoppage wins have come within the first minute of the opening round. Meanwhile, Usman has not ever finished an opponent inside a minute and only has three first-round stoppages in his entire MMA career. Eight of Chimaev’s 12 pro wins have come in the first round.
Chimaev in Round 1 +200 | Chimaev in Round 2 +400 | Chimaev in Round 3 +1000 | Usman in Round 1 +1000 | Usman in Round 2 1400 | Usman in Round 3 +1800
There is also some speculation that Usman, who has a history of knee problems, is coming into this bout compromised. Usman is undoubtedly the calibre of fighter you can’t ever completely count out of a fight, a clear future Hall of Famer, yet he is coming off two straight losses to Leon Edwards. He is also noticeably not the dominant champion he was not too long ago and these circumstances under which he is competing are nowhere near ideal.
Here is the full UFC 294 lineup:
MAIN CARD
-- Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
-- Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
-- Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
-- Ikram Aliskerov vs. Warlley Alves
-- Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev
-- Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek
-- Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henr
-- Abu Azaitar vs. Sedriques Dumas
-- Mike Breeden vs. Anshul Jubli
-- Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov
-- Victoria Dudakova vs. Jinh Yu Frey
-- Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Bruno Silva
(Odds above via Sports Interaction as of Friday and subject to change)
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