UFC 298 Cage Locks: Volkanovski vs. Topuria nearly a pick'em on chalky card

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

UFC 298 features a scintillating championship headliner when 145-pound great Alexander Volkanovski aims to defend his title a sixth time, this time against undefeated challenger Ilia Topuria.

The betting line has narrowed as the fight approaches and depending on the day and the sportsbook, it has been a pick’em or seen the challenger tip the scales as a slight fave. The champ levelled out as a slight favourite on nearly all books after both athletes made weight Friday.

Volkanovski, when competing at 145 pounds, has not been this short a favourite since he was an underdog ahead of his first fight with Max Holloway at UFC 245 in 2019.

The stacked main card also features a pair of former champions, Robert Whittaker and Henry Cejudo who face Paulo Costa and Merab Dvalishvili, respectively, in bouts that each have title implications to varying degrees. Ian Machado Garry will look to remain unbeaten when he takes on Geoff Neal in a welterweight bout and middleweights Anthony Hernandez and Roman Kopylov will look to inch closer to the top 10 at 185 pounds when they kick off the main card.

A scheduled heavyweight bout between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Justin Tafa was cancelled Friday due to a Tafa injury, however de Lima is staying on the preliminary card and will now face Tafa’s younger brother Junior, who accepted the fight Friday on extremely short notice and weighed in with five minutes to spare.

Complete UFC 298 fight card and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria

-- Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa

-- Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry

-- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo

-- Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov              

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern

-- Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Junior Tafa

-- Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera

-- Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro

-- Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow

-- Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn

-- Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “Three-headed Monster Parlay.”

Aaron: Lee vs. Maverick Over 1.5 Rounds -650 (Bovada)

The three-headed monster requires the highest margin of safety and this is certainly up there. Both Lee and Maverick have a penchant for going the distance and I expect this to be a competitive, back-and-forth affair for as long as it lasts, which in my opinion, will be the full 15-minute duration.  

Dan: Ian Machado Garry to win outright -220 (Bodog)

Last week we learned that this Three-headed Monster Parlay eats low hanging fruit for breakfast. Even seemingly logical bets have been letting us down. This week, I’m going with more of an eye-test pick. Machado Garry gave me the impression at media day that he is both focused and confident ahead of his bout with Geoff Neal. He’s undefeated and dominated Neil Magny the last time out. I expect him to win inside the distance, but I’ll take the outright pick just in case it goes to scorecards.

Mike: Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro to not see Round 3 -550 (FanDuel)

For the record, I wanted to go full coward mode and take Rinya Nakamura and his Olympic-calibre wrestling base to win outright but he’s such a heavy favourite over Carlos Vera (with odds ranging from -1200 to -1450) it added little value to our parlay. We should see an early finish based the style matchup in Zhang vs. Ribeiro. Each has gone the distance once during their careers but beyond that neither has seen a third round.

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -102 (to win $98.35)
2024 Record: 0-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$400

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Amanda Lemos -135 (DraftKings)

Lemos opened at -260, and based on the stylistic matchup and circumstances under which Dern has accepted this bout, I feel that this is a more appropriate line than the bargain we have at -135. Prior to accepting Dern as a short-notice replacement, Lemos was slated to face an elite wrestler in Tatiana Suarez and with Dern’s likely lone path to victory being a submission, I expect that Lemos, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in her own right, will have a marked advantage on the feet and will be able to keep it there. Lemos is the most powerful striker in women’s strawweight history with a knockdown rate that is about 60 per cent higher than the next highest, which belongs to Jessica Andrade, whose most recent win was an absolute demolition of Dern.

Dan: Miranda Maverick -180 (BetWay)

Maverick has won three of her last four bouts, losing to Jasmine Jasudavicius by UD during this stretch. She has two submission finishes during this run as well. I expect her tactical pursuit of a stoppage to at least give her the win on scorecards against the veteran Andrea Lee.

Mike: Amanda Lemos -135 (DraftKings)

Based on Dern’s most recent outing there’s little reason to think she will be competitive on the feet and I trust Lemos to defend Dern’s early grappling attacks long enough to eventually take control of the fight, possibly earning a finish. Dern has more name value and star power as Lemos sort of flies under the radar, which I believe has impacted the lines. Take note, this is a rather chalky card overall.

Aaron’s favourite record: 2-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$85.62

Dan’s favourite record: 3-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $106.98

Mike’s favourite record: 2-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$75.53

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Andrea Lee +160 (DraftKings)

Lee is always in closely contested fights. In her last six fights to go to a decision, three have been splits, all of which she was on the wrong side of. Regardless of the outcome, it does show that Lee has been in closely contested fights against Joanne Wood, Maycee Barber and Lauren Murphy, all of whom I would compare similarly to Maverick, who has been unable to deliver on her initial promise as a prospect. I expect Lee to fight Maverick tough and if it gets to the scorecards, she certainly could come out on top.

Dan: Roman Kopylov +210 (DraftKings)

Kopylov is becoming a knockout artist in the UFC. He has won his last four bouts, all by KO. His hand-to-hand combat skills were well documented prior to joining the UFC. His opponent Anthony Hernandez has also won his last four bouts, with three of them taking place inside the distance. I think this is a more even contest then the moneyline indicates.

Mike: Ilia Topuria +110 (Bodog)

There are several live dogs on this card I could see winning that boast better value than the featherweight title challenger (Cejudo, Costa, Kopylov, Quinlan) but there’s nothing quite like main event action, especially when a belt is on the line. Topuria, who may hold the power edge in this matchup, says a new era at 145 pounds is about to begin and I’m buying the hype. The moment this bout was announced my initial reaction was it was too soon a turnaround after Volkanovski’s KO loss to the lightweight champ. Topuria will be able to find the champ’s chin. This is an outstanding matchup and I’m expecting elite-level MMA from both corners. Don’t be surprised if we see Topuria dominate at times with his underutilized grappling prowess. I’m willing to look like a fool on this one, but I legitimately would be shocked if Old Man Volk mopped the floor with the young Spaniard the way he dismantled Yair Rodriguez. There aren't many matchups in the sport more compelling than this one at this point in time.

Aaron’s underdog record: 2-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $85

Dan’s underdog record: 1-3
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$195

Mike’s underdog record: 2-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $42

DART THROW

What’s a long-shot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Nakamura wins by Round 1 Submission +550 (Unibet)

The odds of Nakamura winning in Round 1 are +115 and I think that a submission is as likely as the KO/TKO outcome and is roughly double the payout. Vera has never lost via KO/TKO, but he has been submitted and with Nakamura’s wrestling-heavy offence, this is a dart that I think has a better chance of hitting the bullseye than most.

Dan: Vera/Nakamura to end in Round 3 +900 (BetRivers)

Rinya Nakamura is the heavy favourite according to the oddsmakers. Carlos Vera is making his UFC debut against an established and unbeaten opponent. But Vera has plenty of experience prior to joining the UFC and should be able to hang with Nakamura for two rounds. As we often see, anything can happen in an MMA bout.

Mike: Kopylov to win by KO/TKO in Round 2 or Round 3 +750 (FanDuel)

Middleweight has been the UFC’s most compelling division so far this year, in my opinion, and this bout is an excellent 185-pound matchup to kick off a highly promising main card. So long as Kopylov isn’t on the defensive the entire time, I can see the Russian slowly chipping away at Hernandez with body work. As a southpaw, Kopylov’s left kick to the midsection could either find a home or lead to him getting taken down. I’m choosing to trust in his 92 per cent takedown defence to hold strong and we’ll eventually see him hunting for the finish in the back half of the fight.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-3-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300

Dan’s dart throw record: 0-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$400

Mike’s dart throw record: 2-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $1,100

(Listed betting odds as of Thursday/Friday and subject to change prior to fights)