UFC 298 key questions: Can Costa re-emerge a contender? Is it Dvalishvili time?

UFC 298 goes down this weekend and the stacked main card is a breath of fresh air for any mixed martial arts fans underwhelmed by the past few events.

While we’ve already seen two new champions crowned this year, plus a handful of other notable results, there hasn’t yet been a UFC event in 2024 yet rife with those jaw-dropping “Wow!” moments you become accustomed to watching the sport on a weekly basis.

The UFC returns to Anaheim’s Honda Center for the first time in two years with a 12-fight card topped by an anticipated featherweight title bout between reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski and undefeated challenger Ilia Topuria.

UFC 298 has plenty else to offer outside of that tremendous main event matchup, including two bouts featuring former champions plus several additional unbeaten fighters on the undercard and prelims who are looking to continue ascending.

With that in mind, here are a handful of storylines we’re pondering before the event.

Are we really about to see Paulo Costa back in action?

It feels somewhat surreal but, folks, we are mere days away from the return of Borrachinha. The one-time middleweight title challenger hasn’t competed since Paulo Costa's bizarre yet entertaining unanimous decision win over former champion Luke Rockhold 18 months ago at UFC 278 and the Brazilian is not being eased back into action as he faces former 185-pound champion Robert Whittaker in the night’s co-main event.

For a three-round fight in particular, it doesn’t get much better than this in terms of a quality matchup.

Costa had three different bouts fall apart in 2023. An announced fight with Whittaker at UFC 284 never happened after Costa revealed the matchup was announced before he had actually signed the contract. He was briefly slated to face the intimidating Ikram Aliskerov at UFC 291 but he was pulled from that bout and paired with Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 294 instead, although Costa was injured and replaced with Kamaru Usman.

The 185-pound division has been turned on its collective head since the last time Costa competed inside the Octagon. Having Costa back in the mix only adds to the intrigue and increases the energy significantly.

The fight itself should be a high-pace thriller. Neither fighter is known for attempting many takedowns while both have solid takedown defence and recoverability, so it’s not crazy to think we’re about to see a mostly striking matchup. Whittaker never seemed to get his timing right in his most recent bout, a TKO loss to Dricus Du Plessis who, like Costa, is a strong and lumbering fighter who aggressively pressed forward until he hurt Whittaker and ended the fight.

Costa is about as aggressive as they come at middleweight. His 6.49 significant strikes landed per minute are tied with Du Plessis’s rate as the highest in the division’s history. Whittaker, more of a technician, could look to take advantage of the fact Costa also absorbs 6.38 significant strikes per minute. Whittaker’s only losses at middleweight in the UFC have been to reigning or future champions – twice to former champ Israel Adesanya and once to current titleholder Du Plessis.

It’s looking like Adesanya will return to competition, perhaps later this year. Nassourdine Imavov looked like a future title challenger earlier this month in his win over Roman Dolidze, and Jack Hermansson reminded fans during last weekend’s main event that proven “gatekeepers” like him are still more than capable of serving up-and-coming stars like Joe Pyfer a serving of humble pie.

The division has movement and barring some unfortunate eleventh-hour hiccup, or a botched weight cut, seeing Costa back in action is great news for the fluid weight class. If he does pull off the upset over a former champ, don’t be surprised to hear Costa go to work on the mic and call out fighters in multiple divisions.

Will the next bantamweight title challenger be determined? 

Merab Dvalishvili has consistently said he believes he’ll be guaranteed the next title shot at 135 pounds if he extends his impressive winning streak to 10 on Saturday when he faces former two-weight UFC champion and Olympic gold medallist Henry Cejudo. The UFC hasn’t flat-out stated that this bout is an official title eliminator, though.

Sean O’Malley won the title off Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 in August. The current champ is slated to make his first title defence against Marlon Vera in March in the UFC 299 main event.

Dvalishvili, a teammate of Sterling, is coming off back-to-back unanimous decision wins over former UFC champions Petr Yan and Jose Aldo. His win over Yan was a five-rounder during which he landed 11 separate takedowns and more than 200 total strikes. The 33-year-old Georgian has perhaps the best conditioning on the entire UFC roster, no exaggeration, and this bout with Cejudo is scheduled for only three rounds.

Cejudo’s most recent loss was a split decision to Sterling in their five-round title fight at UFC 288 nine months ago. Cejudo would also hold a solid argument to face the winner of O’Malley vs. Vera considering his track record in the division and sport.

If Cejudo, 37, can pull off the upset and is given the chance to win back the 135-pound championship, he would qualify for the “over 35 curse” statistic Aaron Bronsteter broke down earlier this week that applies to Volkanovski at UFC 298.

First things first, he must get past Dvalishvili. 

Which Mackenzie Dern will show up? 

The featured preliminary bout at UFC 298 is a women’s strawweight contest between Ananda Lemos and Mackenzie Dern with Dern, who took the fight on short notice filling in for an injured Tatiana Suarez, looking to bounce back from her first knockout loss.

Dern was walloped in her last outing by Jessica Andrade despite being a heavy favourite prior to the fight. The one-time strawweight champion proved again her power hasn’t waned and Dern found out the hard way with a second-round technical knockout loss. Dern looked out of synch that night at UFC 295 and her striking left much to be desired. In fact, Dern has been out-struck in four of her past five fights and Lemos has eight career KO/TKO wins to her name.

Dern, 30, won six of her first seven UFC bouts, including four via first-round submission. Since then she has alternated wins and losses and has been more willing to stand and trade with her opponents. Will the multiple-time world jiu-jitsu champion get back to her roots against Lemos and implement a grappling-heavy strategy?

Which fighters will stay perfect?

Remaining undefeated while climbing the ranks in MMA is nearly impossible yet UFC 298 boasts four fighters yet to taste defeat in their professional careers. Ilia Topuria, Ian Machado Garry, Rinya Nakamura and Danny Barlow will each put their unblemished records on the line this weekend.

Topuria (14-0) can join the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Jon Jones (not counting his DQ), Cain Velasquez, Lyoto Machida, Chris Weidman, Ronda Rousey and Israel Adesanya as fighters to win a UFC title before ever suffering a loss in the sport. 

Machado Garry (13-0) has had a whirlwind past several months to say the least as he told Spencer Kyte in detail ahead of his anticipated welterweight bout with Geoff Neal. The 26-year-old rising Irish star can cement himself inside the top 10 at 170 pounds with a win and put the rest of the division on notice with a statement finish. Machado Garry is hoping for a similar outcome to Neal’s last opponent, Shavkat Rakhmonov, who extended his unbeaten streak to begin his career to 18-0 with 18 finishes. Neal has lost three of five but shouldn’t be overlooked here despite being the older fighter coming off a submission loss before which he missed weight. Machado Garry doesn’t have a 100 per cent finishing rate like Rakhmonov but eight of his 13 wins have come inside the distance and he has been working extensively on improving his jiu-jitsu to give his opponents one more thing to think about.

Nakamura (8-0) was an Olympic wrestling hopeful for Japan who turned his attention to MMA after the 2020 Olympics were postponed. The 28-year-old has won eight times since debuting in the sport in May 2021, making a name for himself by winning the inaugural season of Road to UFC. He is the biggest betting favourite by a wide margin at UFC 298. He faces Carlos Vera on the prelims at 135 pounds.

Barlow (7-0) is a southpaw with blazing speed and a violent left hand. He’s facing Josh Quinlan, a jiu-jitsu black belt who also hits like a truck. Quinlan is 6-1 as a pro and coming off his first pro loss; he’s hoping to teach Barlow what that feels like. Barlow earned his UFC contract with a 79-second TKO win over Raheam Forest on Dana White’s Contender Series in September.