UFC 302 Cage Locks: How realistic are upset wins for Poirier, Costa?

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

Saturday’s UFC 302 event kicks off a massive June fight month.

Undisputed lightweight titleholder Islam Makhachev is a bigger betting favourite heading into his UFC 302 main event title defence against Dustin Poirier than he was when he fought Charles Oliveira and both times he faced former featherweight king Alex Volkanovski.

Meanwhile, Poirier cashed as the underdog at UFC 299 to position himself challenge for the 155-pound championship and if he beats Makhachev he’ll do so in the biggest underdog spot of his UFC career. Poirier can become the first fighter aged 35 or older to win a title fight at lightweight or below on the men’s side.

Saturday’s card also features former middleweight champion Sean Strickland and one-time title challenger Paulo Costa going toe-to-toe in a special five-round co-main event, plus the preliminary card has unbeaten César Almeida, a relative newcomer to MMA who holds a kickboxing victory over Alex Pereira.

Complete bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier

-- Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa

-- Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

-- Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov

-- Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- César Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov

-- Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki

-- Philip Rowe vs. Jake Matthews

-- Niko Price vs. Alex Morono

-- Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez

-- Ailín Pérez vs. Joselyne Edwards

-- André Lima vs. Mitch Raposo

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Makhachev vs. Poirier does not go the distance -460 (FanDuel)

This is likely the last opportunity that Dustin Poirier will have to win the undisputed lightweight championship and I expect that his attitude will be high risk, high reward. Poirier will need to try and be opportunistic and that will either be successful or create openings for Makhachev, which he has been known to seize and find finishes. I don't believe this fight hits the scorecards.

Dan: Perez vs. Edwards over 1.5 Rounds -500 (Bet365)

Lock it in! In a world of unsafe bets, this is the absolute safest bet on the card. Edwards has had seven bouts in the UFC, with all of them going to scorecards. Perez has had three bouts in UFC, with two going to scorecards. Surely this one will go past 1.5 rounds.

Mike: Strickland vs. Costa Over 1.5 rounds -360 (Bet365)

Initially was going to go more conservative and find a “fight starts Round 2” prop at a much less profitable number, but we're risking and extra half round to make the payout more respectable. This fan-friendly five-round co-headliner was scheduled for 25 minutes for a reason. Strickland has gone over 1.5 rounds in all of his UFC middleweight appearances save for his 2014 UFC debut and his first-round loss to Alex Pereira. It has been more than seven years since one of Costa’s fights ended under 7:30 of fight time.

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -115 (to win $86.67)
2024 Record: 6-11 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$469.88

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Jailton Almeida wins by KO/TKO or Submission -150 (Bodog)

If Almeida is able to do what Almeida does, which is smother his opponents and look for the finish, I expect that he gets Romanov out of there at some point. Romanov’s recent conditioning has looked suspect and if Almeida implements his game, he will exhaust him and eventually find a finish.

Dan: Randy Brown -170 (Betway)

Randy Brown looked incredible in his last fight back in February where he earned a performance bonus. Brown quickly disposed of Muslim Salikhov and should be able to keep the momentum going against 37-year-old Elizeu dos Santos.

Mike: Ailin Perez -175 (Bet365)

Perez is 2-0 since returning to 135 and I see her being able to secure takedowns and accumulate enough positional control time to win at least two rounds if she doesn’t become the first person to finish Joselyne Edwards at the UFC level.

Aaron’s favourite record: 11-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$104.95

Dan’s favourite record: 11-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$75.55

Mike’s favourite record: 9-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$214.73

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Phil Rowe +136 (DraftKings)

Rowe was riding a three-fight win streak before a frustrating split decision loss to the always-versatile Neil Magny. Matthews has done a good job against lesser competition, but I do not believe Rowe qualifies as such. Rowe’s length and trickiness will give Matthews fits and I expect Rowe gets his hand raised.

Dan: Roman Kopylov +105 (Caesars)

Roman’s punching power is too much of a lingering threat to overlook given these odds at plus money. I’m assuming he has worked on the areas of his game that saw him fall to a submission defeat against Anthony Hernandez at UFC 298. Cesar Almeida is unbeaten in the UFC, but so was Kopylov prior to his last bout. I expect the Russian southpaw to bounce back in this one.

Mike: Paulo Costa +220 (DraftKings)

Lots of value on a card like this and even though, on paper, the co-main heavily favours Strickland stylistically over five rounds, the fact Costa is taking his second middleweight bout within a five-month span bodes well for him and his conditioning. Maybe he gets dog-walked as the rounds progress but he had his moments in an exciting three-round loss to Robert Whittaker in February, and I suspect he will also have his moments and make Strickland bleed as was predicted by Strickland at Thursday’s press conference.

Aaron’s underdog record: 8-9
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$235

Dan’s underdog record: 4-13
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$775

Mike’s underdog record: 8-9
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$117

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Paulo Costa by Decision +1100 (FanDuel)

Eight of Strickland's middleweight fights have gone the distance and while this is a five-round fight, I would not be shocked to see this go the distance. If it does hit the scorecards and the judges are looking for the fighter who lands the most impactful, effective strikes, that could certainly be Costa. At these odds, I will roll the dice.

Dan: Dustin Poirier to win outright +500 (BetWay)

“Destiny doesn’t make mistakes” but gamblers do. I think the moneyline is borderline disrespectful to Poirier. A UFC legend who reminded everyone at UFC 299 that he can still hang with the best. Makhachev might be in his own stratosphere in terms of ability, but at +500, it’s worth seeing if “The Diamond” can shine one more time and connect with a devastating shot.

Mike: Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk ends via KO/TKO in Round 2 +600 (FanDuel)

This prop casts a wide net as both fighters have plenty of knockout wins. An early KO is likely Oleksiejczuk's best shot at victory here even though he is more accustomed to competing at a heavier weight. If this 185-pound scrap makes it out of the opening round, I expect at least one of these fighters to have taken a bunch of damage and for the other to turn up the heat and go for the finish in the second.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-15-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,000

Dan’s dart throw record: 1-16
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$900

Mike’s dart throw record: 4-12-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,100

(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)