UFC 303 style clash: Where is Pereira most vulnerable in Prochazka rematch?

Although it isn’t the main event mixed martial arts fans or the UFC had expected to see at UFC 303 for International Fight Week, the championship rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka is about as high quality a headliner you could ask for on only two weeks’ notice.

The reigning light-heavyweight champion, Pereira, has been fully embraced by the MMA community and has quickly become one of the top stars in the entire sport. The 36-year-old has another opportunity to add to his legacy Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Prochazka, the 31-year-old challenger and a former champion in his own right, is also well-liked and respected by fans and his contemporaries. He’ll be looking to join Jon Jones and Randy Couture as the only two-time champions of the weight class.

Pereira finished Prochazka with strikes in the second round at UFC 295 in November and despite the rematch between the popular 205-pounders occurring less than seven months after the first encounter, this isn’t an immediate rematch

Both fought and won at UFC 300 in April, each finishing their respective opponent in highlight fashion. Prochazka picked up a Performance of the Night bonus for his second-round technical knockout victory over Alexsandar Rakic, while Pereira made quick work of Jamahal Hill and defended his title with a three-minute knockout and memorable celebration in the main event.

With only roughly half a year having elapsed since they last fought each other, plus the fact this fight is taking place on short notice where neither athlete had the benefit of a full training camp, there are added variables this time around but stylistically speaking, how might the rematch unfold?

Pereira’s leg kicks were immediately impactful at UFC 295 and they could play a huge role in the rematch. He can land on both the inside and outside of his opponent’s lead leg, regardless of whether they’re positioned orthodox or southpaw.

Low calf kicks were also used effectively by Pereira when he won the middleweight title from Israel Adesanya. Prochazka frequently switched stances early against Pereira but “Poatan” timed his kicks well and did damage.

Prochazka changed his strategy after only a couple of minutes and looked for a takedown. Once he felt Pereira was no threat with a guillotine choke, he took the fight to the ground and landed in top position in Pereira’s half-guard. Prochazka landed two clean ground strikes before Pereira worked his back to the fence and wall-walked up to his feet before the round ended, proving to his opponent he wasn’t going to be out-grappled and controlled on the ground easily.

In that opening round, Prochazka frequently used feints and stance switches – although sometimes he’d switch because of the kicks he was absorbing – and found home for a lead uppercut on more than one occasion.

It was a great first five minutes to a championship fight and a closely contested round. The fighters landed an equal number of significant strikes with Pereira inflicting more damage, yet the way Prochazka adapted and took the fight to the ground before accumulating 2:17 of control time was enough for all three judges to score the round for the challenger. 

Prochazka had more success against Pereira, especially early, than most of Pereira’s MMA opponents have, however, the second round took place exclusively on the feet, which meant Pereira could stay in his wheelhouse.

Former UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, one of the most technically gifted mixed martial artists ever to compete in the sport, regularly breaks down big events and matchups on his YouTube channel and he has lauded Pereira’s elite distance management.

“That’s what makes him so great is he understands the distance,” Johnson said in a recent video breaking down Pereira’s striking skills and his win over Hill at UFC 300. “When you have a guy who’s so good with kickboxing, he’s getting your rhythm, he’s getting your timing, he’s getting your distance, he’s getting your speed. Every second that goes by in this fight Alex is more comfortable, more comfortable, and more comfortable.”

'Mighty Mouse' said Pereira’s skills and experience kickboxing at the highest level gives him a huge advantage over most MMA fighters on the feet. Johnson observed that whilst Pereira lands his offence and defends oncoming attacks he’s simultaneously downloading info on his opponent’s tendencies and where they are exploitable.

“Standup isn’t the way to beat Alex,” Johnson, who literally laughed in Jamahal Hill’s face when he interviewed Hill prior to UFC 300 when Hill proclaimed he’d knock Pereira out, added. “That’s my personal opinion. I would grapple him and beat him in the clinch and be more athletic than him.”

In theory, Prochazka should heed that advice because he did display superior grappling in Round 1 at Madison Square Garden and the former titleholder is also known for his athleticism and conditioning. Prochazka won the title two years ago when he submitted Glover Teixeira, Pereira’s teammate and current coach, with 28 seconds remaining in the fifth round of their classic UFC 275 title fight.

Another former UFC champ and all-time great with a popular YouTube channel, Alexander Volkanovski, believes Pereira’s ability to slip potentially fight-ending punches is a key ingredient to his success. 

“He wants the punches to go past,” Volkanovski explained when previewing UFC 303. “He’s not relying on pulling back and making you miss and making you pull short. He relies on you missing, falling through and catching you while you’re still halfway through your punch, which is a dangerous way to play. That’s why anyone can win this fight (at UFC 303). Just purely because that’s the stylistic way they fight. They take a lot of risk. Ya, they’re very successful that way but they can definitely get caught.”

Pereira’s ability to slip and counter is exactly what we saw during the finishing sequence in November. The Brazilian backed up as the unpredictable Czech pressed forward to follow up on a right hand he landed seconds earlier.

As Prochazka fired another right, Pereira dipped to his own right side and countered with a short right before landing his patented left hook on the recoil. 

It lifted Prochazka off his feet and sent him to the canvas. As he attempted a takedown while trying to regain his bearings, Pereira landed a few punches and eight hard, fast elbows to the side of Prochazka’s head that caused Prochazka to fall to his back and the referee stepped in.

Pereira became the ninth two-weight champion in UFC history and any talk of it being a controversial or early stoppage was put to rest when a classy-in-defeat Prochazka did not protest and later acknowledged he was flash KO’d.

“I have to say, no matter the result, I (watched the first) fight many times and I will not change anything,” Prochazka told reporters in Las Vegas Wednesday when asked about adjustments and possibly changing his strategy ahead of his rematch with Pereira. “I want to do the same this Saturday but much better. Be more precise in the details, watch the calf kicks just a little bit and win. Just win.”

Pereira can become the first 205-pound UFC champion to defend the title more than once since Jon Jones’s second title reign and he’d join Jones, Daniel Cormier, Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz and Frank Shamrock as the only light-heavyweight champions with multiple title defences.

Prochazka previously vacated the title late in 2022, several months after winning it, when he sustained a significant right shoulder injury that required surgery. His fight with Pereira at UFC 295 was his first fight back in action. Pereira also happened to fight Hill in Hill’s first fight back after vacating the title due to a ruptured Achilles and subsequent surgery.

Also, Pereira will be continuing his incredible streak of facing current or former UFC champions. He is 7-1 in UFC competition and his rematch with Prochazka will be his seventh consecutive matchup with a UFC champion. In addition to his light-heavyweight title fights with Prochazka and Hill, he also has a win over Jan Blachowicz. Before moving up a division, Pereira took on Adesanya in two middleweight title fights (winning once and losing once) and he also knocked out Sean Strickland to earn his first UFC title shot.