UFC Cage Locks: Bantamweight title hopefuls Yan, Figueiredo in Macau spotlight

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

A pair of former UFC champions meet in the main event in Macau this weekend with a future bantamweight title shot potentially at stake when Petr Yan and Deiveson Figueiredo step into the spotlight for their five-round contest.

Yan, a former 135-pound titleholder, is looking to build off his March victory over Song Yadong. The 31-year-old Russian is 17-5 in mixed martial arts with three of his losses coming by split decision and one by disqualification. He is favoured by oddsmakers to get his hand raised.

Figueiredo, a two-time champ at 125 pounds, has gone 3-0 since moving up from the flyweight division. A win over Yan at Galaxy Arena could lead to the soon-to-be 37-year-old Brazilian getting a shot at the bantamweight title in 2025.

The 13-bout Fight Night card also features recent women’s strawweight title challenger Yan Xiaonan, kickboxing standout Wang Cong making her second UFC appearance, one-time light-heavyweight title challenger Volkan Oezdemir who looks to end rising contender Carlos Ulberg’s hot streak, plus unbeaten flyweights Lone'er Kavanagh and Jose Ochoa making their organizational debuts on the prelims.

All 26 fighters scheduled to compete successfully made weight early Friday. Our trio of prognosticators are coming off a successful UFC 309 parlay plus Dan’s latest dart throw hit.

Complete UFC Macau bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

-- Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci

-- Song Kenan vs. Muslim Salikhov

-- Wang Cong vs. Gabriella Fernandes

-- Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg

-- Zhang Mingyang vs. Ozzy Diaz  

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Baergeng Jieleyisi vs. You Su-young

-- Kiru Singh Sahota vs. Choi Dong-hun

-- Shi Ming vs. Feng Xiaocan

-- Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Carlos Hernandez

-- Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa

-- Xiao Long vs. Quang Le

-- Maheshate vs. Nikolas Motta

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Ozzy Diaz vs. Zhang Mingyang does not start Round 3 -357

Both of these fighters are heavy hitters and I would be surprised if this fight even reaches the second round. My biggest hesitation is that this event will use the new, soon to be old, gloves, which has impacted the knockout rate of cards, but I am willing to roll the dice with neither of these fighters reaching the third round in their professional careers.

Dan: Wang Cong to win outright -900

Wang Cong will be a force in the flyweight division in 2025. The moneyline suggests she gets past Gabriella Fernandes quite easily. Be wary of an inside the distance finish here because Fernandes has dragged all her fights out to scorecards. But look for the hard-hitting Cong to get her hand raised in Macau on Saturday.

Mike: Yan vs. Figueiredo makes it out of Round 1 -1200

Apologies for the boring low hanging fruit pick here but there’s a dearth of decent lock options on this card, in my view, but the main event is likely to venture into the later rounds.

Three-headed Parlay Odds: -185 (to win: $54.08)
2024 Record: 21-18 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$4.04

FAVOURITE

Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)

Aaron: Dong Hoon Choi -105

It was difficult to find a favourite that I really liked, so I am going with a pick‘em in Choi. I felt like he really fought well down the stretch in his last fight and that his youth will be the deciding factor in a close decision. Both he and Sahota have been in close fights throughout the Road to the UFC tournament and I believe Choi will prevail in this matchup.

Dan: Yan Xiaonan -185

Xiaonan’s best path to victory against Tabatha Ricci will be to stay on the feet. I expect a bounce back performance following a loss to Weili Zhang at UFC 300 where she lost convincingly after five rounds. This pick is by no means safe, but Xiaonan has a lot more to lose here than Ricci.

Mike: Yan Xiaonan -185

This is a nice rebound spot for Xiaonan who will have the support of the crowd. Ricci’s two most recent wins haven’t been overly convincing in my mind while Xiaonan can remain in the title picture for another year or so...as long as she isn't controlled on the ground for the duration of this bout.

Aaron’s favourite record: 21-18
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$417.76

Dan’s favourite record: 28-11
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$627.02

Mike’s favourite record: 20-17-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$389.39

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel +150

I was impressed with how Tumendemberel looked in the previous Road to UFC tournament and while Hernandez has been a tough out, he is also 1-3 in his last four. His experience could be an uphill climb for Tumendemberel, but I think that this fight should be lined closer to even.

Dan: Nikolas Motta +165

I’m surprised Motta is actually a betting underdog in this one. His opponent Maheshate has been consistently inconsistent in the UFC. This should be a close fight and Motta’s experience in the Octagon against some established UFC competitors might give him the edge here.

Mike: Jose Ochoa +275

Both Ochoa and his opponent, Lone'er Kavanagh, are making their UFC debuts with 7-0 pro records but the odds are heavily slanted in Kavanagh’s direction, and I suspect some of that must be recency bias because of his highlight knockout on DWCS earlier this year. Ochoa is younger with less fanfare but he’s an incredibly exciting young flyweight. On one hand I view Kavanagh as future champion material at 125 pounds; on the other hand, these odds seem off to me considering Ochoa’s talent, potential and varied skill set. This is an excellent matchup flying under the radar.

Aaron’s underdog record: 14-25
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$465

Dan’s underdog record: 10-29
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,647

Mike’s underdog record: 15-24
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$179.76

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Song Kenan wins by KO/TKO/DQ +500

Muslim Salikhov is highly revered in China after winning Sanda tournaments and he has proven to be an elite striker, but much of it is predicated on precision rather than power. Kenan, on the other hand, has shown off big power in his UFC career and with Salikhov on the wrong side of 40, I think Kenan could potentially catch him here and score the knockout.

Dan: Ulberg/Oezdemir ends by submission +550

I don’t see this one going the distance. A knockout seems to be the most likely outcome here, but both competitors have won by submission and fairly recently too. But since I’m back on house money in the dart throw category, consider this a set and forget pick.

Mike: Point to be deducted during Yan vs. Figueiredo +2000

You give me these two fighters plus five rounds and 20-to-1 odds that one of them fouls enough to lose a point, I’m taking a shot.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-31-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$750

Dan’s dart throw record: 5-34
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$300

Mike’s dart throw record: 6-32-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,550

(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)