UFC Cage Locks: Buckley, Covington close out 2024 with important main event

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

The UFC’s 2024 schedule concludes Saturday with a Fight Night event headlined by two of the most talkative and talented welterweights in mixed martial arts when Colby Covington returns to face the streaking Joaquin Buckley in a five-round main event.

Covington is a former interim titleholder, while Buckley has won five consecutive bouts including stoppages of Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Vicente Luque as he looks to enter the title conversation at 170 pounds.

The 13-bout card, which takes place at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., also features flyweight contenders Manel Kape and Bruno Silva going toe-to-toe in what should be a high-paced 125-pound matchup on the main card.

Plus, veterans like Cub Swanson and Michael Johnson, and rising fighters Daniel Marcos, Joel Alvarez, Vitor Petrino, Navajo Stirling and Josefine Knutsson are in action.

The headliners both successfully made weight Friday morning, as did every fighter scheduled to compete, taking advantage of the one-pound allowance fighters receive for non-title bouts.

Projected bout order and full predictions for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley below…

MAIN CARD

-- Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

-- Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

-- Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva

-- Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby

-- Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos

-- Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar

-- Joel Alvarez vs. Drakkar Klose

-- Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla

-- Miles Johns vs. Felipe Lima

-- Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

-- Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras                           

-- Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Covington vs. Buckley Starts Round 3 -455

Colby Covington has two common themes throughout his UFC career, which is not scoring finishes and rarely getting finished and with that in mind, I expect that his fight with Buckley extends to the third round and beyond.

Dan: Manel Kape to win outright -375

Manel Kape needs this victory. Going 0-2 in 2024 would not be a good look for Starboy. Previous missed weight cuts and blaming the officiating tires quickly among MMA fans and those cards have all been played. It's time for Manel to put on the type of vintage performance that had many believing he was a future title contender. I think he does just that on Saturday.

Mike: Navajo Stirling to win outright -750

Fading hyped prospects making their UFC debut immediately following a highlight finish on Dan White’s Contender Series has been a solid strategy at times but in this case I side with these inflated odds. Stirling was one of the most promising prospects from this past season of DWCS and I expect him to earn a convincing win in his debut.

Three-headed Parlay Odds: -133 (to win: $75.11)
2024 Record: 22-19 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$45.43

FAVOURITE

Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)

Aaron: Sean Woodson -155

Sean Woodson has found a groove and has not lost a fight in over four years. Against another long fighter like Fernando Padilla, this could be a tricky matchup for him. That being said, Woodson is on a roll and I think that he defeats Padilla more often than not. He should be a bigger favourite than this, in my estimation.

Dan: Billy Quarantillo -150

Cub Swanson has made a career out of proving people wrong and is fully capable of doing it again on Saturday. I just think that given the selection criteria for this pick, Billy Quarantillo is the safest play. This will be a close fight, likely going the distance. This pick scares me.

Mike: Ramon Tavares -110

Was thoroughly impressed with Tavares at the beginning of this year when he avenged a previous loss to Serhiy Sidey on the road in Canada and even though veteran Brit Davey Grant has plenty of tricks in his varied skill set and has been performing at a high level in recent years against better competition than Tavares has faced, I see this matchup as a breakthrough spot for Tavares who could find himself in some big, fun matchups next year if he enters 2025 on a win streak.

Aaron’s favourite record: 23-18
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$253.55

Dan’s favourite record: 29-12
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$508.07

Mike’s favourite record: 21-18-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$435.34

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Colby Covington +220

Covington looked absolutely abysmal in his previous fight against Leon Edwards and he would be the first to admit that, but how does he go from being a small underdog in a title fight against a defending champion to a large underdog against Buckley, who is at the low end of the top-10?

If Covington proves to be well past his prime, this will look like a major flub, but I think that Covington matches up well against Buckley, who has utilized a grappling advantage that he will not have in this matchup to open up his striking.

Dan: Fernando Padilla +130

Sean Woodson is so good at keeping the distance between himself and his opponent and grinding out victories on scorecards, but Fernando Padilla has shown some scary KO power. If these two athletes stand and exchange for three rounds, I think Padilla finds a path to victory.

Mike: Dustin Jacoby +260

Still not over Vitor Petrino getting tapped quickly by Anthony Smith earlier this year. That one busted up one of our parlays and even though Jacoby got his bell rung by Dominick Reyes in June and has lost four of his past five overall, this bout should be lined more like a coinflip considering the different levels of experience and strength of schedule at the UFC level. Jacoby’s takedown defence should keep him on his feet and give him a real shot at the upset.

Aaron’s underdog record: 14-27
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$665

Dan’s underdog record: 11-30
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,582

Mike’s underdog record: 15-26
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$379.76

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Dustin Jacoby by decision +500

Jacoby has consistently shown that he is not in a hurry in his fights and I expect his methodical approach could be the key to outpointing Petrino, who may be a bit gun shy after getting caught by Anthony Smith in his last fight.

Dan: Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision +650

Canadian bias? Probably. But I don't think the fact that Jamey-Lyn Horth taking this fight on short notice will work against her. She is coming off a decision victory just six weeks ago in Edmonton. Miranda Maverick is on a three-fight win streak but has also shown throughout her career that she can be beaten. There is a high probability this one goes the distance, so if the fight is close anything can happen.

Mike: Colby Covington by KO/TKO/SUB/DQ +900

If the Covington that showed up against Leon Edwards shows up against Joaquin Buckley, “Chaos” will get battered and/or put to sleep. On the other hand, if he is sharp and in shape like he almost always is, I see a path for Covington to have success, bide his time and eventually overwhelm Buckley with pace and volume in the later rounds. Buckley at times has shown a susceptibility to head kicks and Covington incorporates them into his combinations smoothly. Could see him rocking Buckley with a head kick at some point in the later rounds, or even finding a rare submission if Buckley does eventually get exhausted in the first main event and first five-round contest of Buckley's UFC career.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-33-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$550

Dan’s dart throw record: 5-36
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$100

Mike’s dart throw record: 6-34-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,350

(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)