UFC Cage Locks: Can Barboza derail another hype train in Murphy?

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

Saturday’s Fight Night event set at the UFC Apex is headlined by a fan-friendly featherweight matchup between highlight and bonus machine Edson Barboza and the undefeated Lerone Murphy.

Barboza is tied for the all-time lead for most Fight of the Night performances in UFC history and is looking for his first three-fight winning streak in more than seven years.

A co-main event between welterweights Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris, plus up-and-comers Themba Gorimbo and Ramiz Brahimaj face each other in another 170-pound bout with both coming off first-round finishes.

All 24 competitors successfully made weight Friday. Complete bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy

-- Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris

-- Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

-- Adrian Yanez vs. Vinicius Salvador

-- Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Oumar Sy vs. Tuco Tokkos

-- Victor Martinez vs. Tom Nolan  

-- Tamires Vidal vs. Melissa Gatto

-- Abus Magomedov vs. Warlley Alves

-- Piera Rodriguez vs. Ariane Carnelossi

-- Alateng Heili vs. Kleydson Rodrigues

-- Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Emily Ducote

CAGE LOCKS

(updated May 14)

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Hill vs. Pinheiro Starts Round 2 -1150 (FanDuel)

Barring injury, this fight starts round two. This is one of the safest picks imaginable and that is what we are looking for.

Dan: Rodriguez vs. Carnelossi over 1.5 rounds -450 (BetWay)

This pick is low hanging fruit in my opinion and not a lot of fun to be honest. You know what is less fun? Losing parlays. We need this! This bout probably goes the distance…but surely it goes past 1.5 rounds

Mike: Tom Nolan to win outright -470 (DraftKings)

This pick is twofold: First, I do think the young Aussie is primed to bounced back after a disappointing UFC debut in January. More importantly, this pick is an experiment relating to my MMA betting sanity. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is one definition of insanity and I set the tone for our lousy parlay record by picking Nolan as my Cage Lock in the first event of the year as a -345 moneyline fave…and he was KO’d in the opening round! Either Nolan picks up his first win on Saturday, or I will acknowledge my MMA wagering strategy for my “lock” is truly lacking sanity.

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -164 (to win $61.13)
2024 Record: 5-11
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$531.01

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Kleydson Rodrigues -155 (DraftKings)

There is a lot of value on Rodrigues here. He is the more talented fighter in nearly every area, but he just hasn't been able to put it all together yet at age 28. His 1-2 UFC record is somewhat deceiving in that regard. Alatangheili has received mostly favourable matchmaking and I think that this is a good spot for Rodrigues at this price.

Dan: Themba Gorimbo -142 (FanDuel)

Too many question marks for me around which version of Ramiz Brahimaj shows up. Only fitting that Themba Gorimbo is nicknamed “The Answer.” Gorimbo keeps improving with every fight and should do enough to win this on scorecards if he is unable to get the KO. Expect some celebratory tweets from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson.

Mike: Angela Hill -135 (DraftKings)

Her overall record is not impressive, although her level of competition and longevity is, yet I see Hill’s experience and movement on the feet being an advantage in this matchup so I’ll take my chances at these odds even though Hill loses nearly as often as she wins.

Aaron’s favourite record: 11-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$204.95

Dan’s favourite record: 10-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$5.13

Mike’s favourite record: 8-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$288.80

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Luana Pinheiro +120 (DraftKings)

Pinheiro has been less than impressive since her dominant performance on the Dana White Contender Series, but this is the sort of matchup where I expect her to rise to the occasion. Angela Hill will be in her face for as long as the fight lasts and I think that suits Pinheiro well, at least for the first two rounds where she has been at her best. This is a fairly even fight, but if I were setting the line, I would have made Pinheiro the small favourite rather than Hill.

Dan: Alatengheili +120 (DraftKings)

Not a lot of +200 or less underdogs on this card at the moment. “The Mongolian Knight” has yet to lose by stoppage in the UFC and I don’t see him getting caught by Rodrigues inside the distance. With this in mind, and so few options available, here’s hoping Alatengheili can beat the odds.

Mike: Edson Barboza +125 (Bodog)

As long as he’s not too reckless and aggressive against a younger, powerful fighter like Murphy (like he did early in his fight with Sodiq Yusuff) there’s no reason why Barboza can’t secure his first three-fight winning streak since dropping to featherweight.

Aaron’s underdog record: 8-8
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$335

Dan’s underdog record: 3-13
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$895

Mike’s underdog record: 8-8
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$217

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Khaos Williams by Decision +500 (FanDuel)

Most of Williams’s UFC bouts have gone the distance and while Harris can be a difficult puzzle to solve, I'll go with Williams to get the nod on the judges’ scorecards. I expect him to keep this fight on the feet and land the more effective strikes throughout.

Dan: Tamires Vidal by Decision +500 (BetRivers)

Vidal is yet to be stopped inside the distance and Gatto’s last two bouts were very close decision losses. I think the +500 on this outcome is a little inflated. This bout likely goes to a decision, so I’ll lock it in as a dart and possibly regret this choice on Saturday.

Mike: Abus Magomedov to Win in Round 2 +500 (FanDuel)

This matchup with Warlley Alves has the potential to be bonkers for however long it lasts. Magomedov has more ways to win and three of Alves’s past five losses have come in the second round.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-14-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$900

Dan’s dart throw record: 1-15
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$800

Mike’s dart throw record: 4-11-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,200

(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)