UFC Cage Locks: Does Derrick Lewis add to his record knockout totals?

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

The UFC returns to St. Louis for the first time in more than six years with an action-packed Fight Night event this Saturday. The UFC’s all-time knockout leader Derrick Lewis headlines against fellow heavyweight Rodrigo Nascimento who’s taking a huge step-up in competition in his first main event.

St. Louis’s own Joaquin Buckley, fresh off a stoppage of Vicente Luque, will look to extend his welterweight winning streak to four in a row in front of the home crowd when he faces Nursulton Ruziboev who has won 10 straight dating back to 2021.

Every fighter that stepped on the scale Friday morning successfully made weight, however welterweight Jared Gooden was not able to weigh in.

“Due to medical reasons Jared Gooden has been removed from his welterweight bout with Kevin Jousset. As a result this bout has been cancelled from UFC St. Louis,” a UFC statement read.

UFC 301 one week ago saw betting favourites go 11-2, as well as Mike mush yet another parlay for our betting trio.

Will we see another chalky card in St. Louis or will the dogs be barking at Enterprise Center? Complete bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

-- Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

-- Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg

-- Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rębecki

-- Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson

-- Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

-- Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics

-- Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington

-- Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters

-- Charles Johnson vs. Jake Hadley

-- JJ Aldrich vs. Veronica Hardy

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Lewis vs. Nascimento Ends Inside Distance -1000 (BetOnline)

I would be surprised if this one got to the third round. I do not feel that Nascimento has the gas tank to control Lewis for five rounds and unless he has an absolutely granite chin, which was not the case when Chris Daukaus finished him in 45 seconds, he will have to look for a finish early to win this fight. I do not see this one hitting the judges’ scorecards or even coming close.

Dan: Robelis Despaigne v Waldo Cortes-Acosta Under 2.5 Rounds -549 (BetWay)

Despaigne has been knocking guys out in record time and Cortes-Acosta finished his last fight in the first round. I have a feeling Despaigne wins this one by KO but regardless someone is getting stopped here inside the distance.

Mike: Terrance McKinney vs. Esteban Ribovics under 2.5 rounds -550 (DraftKings)

Don’t mind me over here. Just simultaneously nailing underdog and/or dart throw picks nearly every week while also considering growing out an old-timey villain moustache after overlooking Anthony Smith last week and blowing yet another parlay for the team. Style-wise this card in St. Louis has the potential to be mostly finishes and these two all-action lightweights have gone the distance two combined times in 34 combined fights. McKinney has never gone the distance and has only been outside the first round twice in his UFC career. Hypothetically, if you’ve bet under 2.5 rounds in every one of Terrance McKinney’s pro bouts you would be 21-0 on those wagers to date. As a matter of fact, if you did the same with under 1.5 rounds you’d be 20-1 on those bets.

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -186 (to win $53.68)
2024 Record: 5-10
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$431.01

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Derrick Lewis -155 (DraftKings)

While Lewis was controlled for five rounds in his last fight against Jailton Almeida, he was very dangerous whenever the fight was on the feet. Nascimento has solid grappling, but his takedown offence is nowhere near as active or potent as Almeida and I believe that unless he is able to find an early submission that he will be stuck on the feet against Lewis for enough time for him to get caught by the all-time UFC knockout leader.

Dan: Derrick Lewis -155 (DraftKings)

I am with Aaron on this one. The other favourites at -200 or less are all riskier picks in my opinion.

Mike: Derrick Lewis -155 (DraftKings)

Sure, he has lost four of his last five in rather convincing fashion and has struggled against fighters with the types of grappling strengths Nascimento possesses, however simply look at the strength of schedule of both fighters. This fight ends not long after Lewis lands his first clean shot. Saint Lewis will bless St. Louis to close out the night.

Aaron’s favourite record: 10-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$140.43

Dan’s favourite record: 9-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$59.39

Mike’s favourite record: 7-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$353.32

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Chase Hooper +124 (DraftKings)

Hooper finally looks to have come into his own as a lightweight, currently riding the first win streak of his UFC tenure. While Hooper has shown a propensity to get hit, he has always shown the toughness to absorb that punishment and be opportunistic in the process. His opponent, Slava Borshchev trains with a lot of wrestlers at Team Alpha Male, but none that can find the sort of openings on the ground that Hooper can. I like the value on Hooper in this spot.

Dan: Billy Goff +140 (DraftKings)

Goff has looked unstoppable thus far in the UFC. He stopped his opponent on DWCS inside the first round and then did the same in his UFC debut. Trey Waters is favoured on the moneyline, but Goff is more than capable of upsetting the odds here.

Mike: Alonzo Menifield +225 (DraftKings)

Carlos Ulberg has been on a roll since his KO loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu in 2021, his lone misstep in MMA to date, and his four consecutive stoppage wins sees him as more than a two-to-one fave here, yet this line feels too wide for how well Menifield has been performing during his own win streak. Menifield is facing a height, age, and reach disadvantage as was the case in his impressive last outing against Dustin Jacoby. I wouldn’t see a Menifield win as quite the upset these odds indicate it would be.

Aaron’s underdog record: 7-8
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$211

Dan’s underdog record: 3-12
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$795

Mike’s underdog record: 8-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$317

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Derrick Lewis wins by Round 2 KO/TKO +500 (FanDuel)

After his last fight against a Brazilian grappler in Almeida, I expect Lewis to have something of a tentative first round and see what Nascimento throws at him. Once he starts to get into his rhythm and time his opponents, Lewis becomes more dangerous and I think that the second and third rounds will be the most dangerous rounds for Nascimento. For a longshot prop, I think that there is more value on a second-round finish for Lewis than a first-round finish.

Dan: Despaigne wins in Round 2 +750 (Fan Duel)

The hope here is that Waldo Cortes-Acosta calls on all his experience to do enough to survive Round 1. With this logic in mind, and +750 odds just sitting there, it’s not impossible to think that Despaigne continues the onslaught in Round 2 and gets a stoppage.

Mike: Sean Woodson to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3 +900 (FanDuel)

This entire card is a dart-thrower’s dream as I see it having plenty of profitable finishes if you pick your spots wisely. Woodson is fighting in his hometown against an experienced and notoriously durable veteran in “Bruce Leeroy” so why not give him a finish that puts the crowd on its feet. Either fighter to win by submission is listed at +500 is also a tempting prop play for this one but I’ll say it stays mostly a striking matchup.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-13-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$800

Dan’s dart throw record: 1-14
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$700

Mike’s dart throw record: 4-10-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,300

(Betting odds above subject to change prior to fights)