Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Suffice it to say, it has already been a wild week in the world of mixed martial arts and it continues this weekend with UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira marking the 100th live UFC event held at the UFC Apex facility since 2020.
Perennial flyweight contender Alex Perez and undefeated rising talent Tatsuro Taira are set to headline the 11-fight card.
A scheduled co-main event between Ikram Aliskerov and Antonio Trócoli was removed from the card Thursday after Aliskerov was tabbed as Khamzat Chimaev’s replacement ahead of next week's Fight Night main event in Saudi Arabia against former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker.
Perez and Taira both stepped on the scale an even 126 pounds for their five-round non-title bout.
Flyweight Tagir Ulanbekov was the lone fighter to miss weight at Friday’s weigh-ins and the UFC announced his featured preliminary bout vs. Joshua Van was cancelled. All other fighters made weight.
There is only one bout that takes place at a weight class heavier than featherweight on Saturday, so fight fans can expect the action to have a fast pace.
Can our trio of prognosticators make it four consecutive successful three-headed parlays?
New bout order and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
-- Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira
-- Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns
-- Timothy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida
-- Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield
-- Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson
-- Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness
-- Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes
-- Jeka Saragih vs. Westin Wilson
-- Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
-- Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Johns vs. de Andrade Starts Round 2 -550 (FanDuel)
Both Johns and de Andrade have proven to be very durable in their respective UFC tenures. Neither of them have ever lost in the first round and with this being a closely lined bout, I expect it to be competitive from start to finish and feel that the likely outcome is that the fight goes the distance.
Dan: Asu Almabayev to win outright -550 (Caesars)
Almabayev was dominant in his last bout against the battle-tested CJ Vergara at UFC 299. Jose Johnson struggles with takedown defence and his lanky frame should allow for Almabayev to attempt several takedowns. If he is unable to get a submission, expect him to get his hands raised after scorecards.
Mike: Jeka Saragih vs. Westin Wilson does not see Round 3 -450 (Bodog)
For the record, Ikram Aliskerov to beat Antonio Trócoli was going to be my lock of the millennia before it was removed from the card.
Never discredited Westin Wilson’s toughness. Jeka Saragih is the third consecutive knockout artist he has faced at the UFC level. The first two didn’t go his way and he’s a huge underdog again here. It’s rare for either of these featherweights to see a second round let alone a third. Instead of going Saragih moneyline here, I’m leaning towards a finish within 10 minutes on the off chance Wilson can get the fight to the ground and snag a submission.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -141 (to win $70.71)
2024 Record: 8-11 (current streak: W3)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$286.55
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Garrett Armfield -185 (DraftKings)
I have really liked what I have seen from Armfield as he has risen to the occasion since moving back to his natural weight class at bantamweight following a loss in his UFC debut. While I believe Hiestand has solid upside, I think Armfield will be a particularly tricky puzzle for him to solve, like it was for Brad Katona. By the time fighters start to get a beat on Armfield’s rhythm, he is already ahead on the cards and is able to make adjustments on the fly.
Dan: Miles Johns -135 (DraftKings)
I took some flak from my colleagues when I picked Miles Johns as a lock on our parlay during his last bout back in March. While his win over Cody Gibson needed scorecards, it was fairly convincing in my opinion and never really in doubt. One of the knocks against Johns is that he tends to gas out. This time around he is matched against an opponent with a similar reputation in Douglas Silva de Andrade. The Brazilian has not been in the Octagon in over a year while Johns is clearly fight ready. We know which version of Johns will show up while there are too many question marks around his opponent. At -135 this is a steal in my opinion.
Mike: Miles Johns -135 (DraftKings)
Johns has been on a roll and Douglas Silva de Andrade, despite the quality of his opposition, is a 38-year-old bantamweight that has not fought in 13 months.
Aaron’s favourite record: 12-7
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$71.62
Dan’s favourite record: 13-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$221.33
Mike’s favourite record: 11-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$77.59
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Alex Perez +170 (DraftKings)
Tatsuro Taira is certainly a great prospect, but this is not a favourable matchup for him. Perez’s wrestling continues to improve, as do his submission attacks and his striking is already a step ahead of Taira’s. I feel like this is submission or bust from Taira and for him to be a favourite in a circumstance like that against a savvy veteran in Perez, I will take the value with Perez.
Dan: Julia Polastri +165 (BetMGM)
The moneyline on this one has me scratching my head. Yes, this is Julia Polastri’s UFC debut. But keep in mind Polastri was a dominant in Brazil prior to joining the UFC. She lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius by UD on DWCS way back in 2021 but made the most of her second opportunity on the show 2 years later with a submission victory. I see no MMA evidence to suggest that Josefine Knutsson is a clear favourite here. This will be a close fight, well worth leaning towards the betting underdog here.
Mike: Adam Fugitt +110 (Bodog)
Fugitt should have more ways to win in this one, plus he’s a southpaw. Josh Quinlan hits hard but had trouble landing quality shots in his last fight, which was against southpaw Danny Barlow. Fugitt isn’t the striker Barlow is but can still use his stance to his advantage and can threaten on the ground.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-10
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$275
Dan’s underdog record: 5-14
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$770
Mike’s underdog record: 8-11
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$83
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Lucas Almeida by Decision +600 (DraftKings)
One major statistical discrepancy in the matchup between Almeida and Timmy Cuamba is the significant strikes landed per minute stat, which shows that Almeida lands almost exactly double the amount of his opponent. While Almeida is an action fighter who boasts many finishes, I think that this fight has the potential to go to the scorecards as it is evenly matched and Cuamba’s lower output could force Almeida to be a bit more careful in order to avoid counters. Should this fight hit the scorecards, I expect that Almeida will have landed more volume throughout and he also tends to throw big and I can see the judges favouring that over Cuamba being more selective with his strikes.
Dan: Miles Johns by TKO +500 (DraftKings)
These odds are just sitting there! Johns hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2021 but still packs a punch. His opponent has questionable cardio, footwork, striking defence and hasn’t had a pro fight in over a year. This dart throw could hit the target for a change.
Mike: Alex Perez to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 2,3 or 4 +900 (FanDuel)
When Taira is not actively in a dominant grappling position I see Perez being equal or slightly better than the undefeated youngster in most areas, including on the feet. Taira has never been on a main card let alone in a UFC main event, while Perez is seasoned and riding high off a huge KO win. If Perez gets it done inside the distance, I think it’s by knockout yet I also think this one makes it out of the first round because Taira knows he’s facing the most dangerous opponent of his career thus far.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-17-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,200
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-18
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,100
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-14-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,900
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