Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC returns to France for a third consecutive September event on Saturday and the fans at Accor Arena in Paris will be treated to a 14-fight card headlined by Benoit Saint Denis taking on Renato Moicano in an exciting lightweight matchup.
Streaking middleweight contenders Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen both look to extend their respective winning streaks in the co-main event.
Saint Denis and Imavov lead a strong contingent of French fighters featured on the six-fight main card.
Full UFC Paris fight card and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
-- Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis (five rounds)
-- Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen
-- William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito
-- Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle
-- Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda
-- Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Ion Cutelaba vs. Ivan Erslan
-- Oumar Sy vs. Jung Da Woon
-- Ludovit Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts
-- Taylor Lapilus vs. Vince Morales
-- Daria Zheleznyakova vs. Ailin Perez
-- Daniel Barez vs. Victor Altamirano
-- Nora Cornolle vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
-- Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Cornolle vs. Cavalcanti Starts Round 3 -555
This fight has the makings of being a mostly pure kickboxing match given the stylistic backgrounds of both Cornolle and Cavalcanti and I think it is a near certainty that it extends to the entire fifteen minutes. I can predict with a high level of certainty that this fight starts the third round barring injury.
Dan: Oumar Sy -625
Almost tempted to take Oumar Sy to win inside the distance here, but for the sake of this parlay I will stay extra safe. The Frenchman has an unbeaten record and I highly doubt he takes his first loss on home sail against an extreme underdog.
Mike: Morgan Charriere -650
He was on the wrong end of a questionable split decision against Chepe Mariscal his last time out – a great fight by the way – and I think Charriere gets back in the win column with a quality victory in front of the home crowd. Going for a more conservative parlay pick this week to help extend our streak to four in a row.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -173 (to win: $57.96)
2024 Record: 16-15 (current streak: W3)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$54.53
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Taylor Lapilus by decision -175
I am pleased to see Vince Morales get another shot in the UFC, but this is a tall order on short notice, and I expect that this fight goes the distance with Lapilus winning a workmanlike decision like he typically does.
Dan: Jacquelene Cavalcanti -185
Cavalcanti won’t enjoy as much of a reach or height advantage in this one as she had in her previous bout. But I expect her to land more volume and significant strikes in another hard fought win.
Mike: Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO -110
This pick has me feeling gross yet with his power, aggression, coming off a loss in which he was not 100 per cent, fighting at home in a five-round main event, I see many avenues to BSD getting his hand raised. Then you add in the fact Moicano gets rocked in nearly all his fights but also has the grappling skills to negate a submission, and a stoppage via strikes presents itself. Keep in mind I also had Jalin Turner as my lock for UFC 300 and Moicano stuffed that bet like a lazy takedown attempt.
Aaron’s favourite record: 16-15
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$439.72
Dan’s favourite record: 21-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$335.39
Mike’s favourite record: 18-12-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$2.51
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Kevin Jousset +135
Jousset is the French fighter competing on his home soil (despite training in New Zealand) and has both a striking and grappling advantage over Battle, in my opinion. If he can figure out Battle’s range, I think he finds a way to win this fight and at an underdog price, I can't pass it up.
Dan: Matt Frevola +110
Expect the “Steamrolla” to do what he always does and aggressively move forward in this one. It proved to be his downfall the last time out against Saint Denis, but I'm not convinced Fares can do the same and with Frevola being at plus money this is pretty good value.
Mike: Ion Cutelaba -105
This featured prelim should be wild, especially early. Most Cutelaba fights end up looking similar with the 205-pound brawler always willing to go out on his shield. His strength of schedule is much strong so if his chin holds up I like his chances as the more experienced dog.
Aaron’s underdog record: 12-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$155
Dan’s underdog record: 9-22
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,067
Mike’s underdog record: 12-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$195
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Oki vs. Duncan to be won by split decision +550
Interesting matchup between Oki and Duncan, which I think can be closely contested if Duncan can withstand Oki’s power in the first. If that happens, I can foresee a split decision in this one.
Dan: Moicano by TKO/KO +1400
Following his win over Jalen Turner at UFC 300, Moicano reminded everyone not to count him out. Saint Denis showed the last time out against Poirier that he can be dropped. Imagine the post-fight interview if this actually happens!
Mike: Point to be deducted during Imavov vs. Allen +2000
A true dart throw (probably one that’ll miss the board entirely) but both guys can get chippy at times, both in and out of the cage, and Imavov particularly will occasionally foul his opponent during a contest. He was even rightfully deducted a point in his February win over Roman Dolidze. It’s only a three-rounder so obviously not as likely as if it were scheduled for five.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 5-25-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$150
Dan’s dart throw record: 3-28
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,050
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-25-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,350
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
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