UFC Cage Locks: How will Adesanya do in rare non-championship matchup?

The UFC returns to action this weekend with the organization’s second trip to Saudi Arabia headlined by an anticipated five-round middleweight contest.

Former longtime champion Israel Adesanya is set to compete in his first non-title matchup in nearly six years when he faces streaking No. 5 contender Nassourdine Imavov at anb Arena in Riyadh.

“There’s definitely pressure I put on myself and whatnot, but without the title (on the line) in this one it just gives me a sense of freedom so I can just go in there and fight and get paid,” Adesanya told Sportsnet earlier this week.

The 35-year-old future Hall of Famer has lost two in a row and three of his past four fights dating back to 2022.

Meanwhile, Imavov has won three in a row over ranked fighters Roman Dolidze, Jared Cannonier and Brendan Allen. The 29-year-old from France would vault himself into the title conversation with a win over Adesanya.

"(Imavov’s) very slick, he’s very well-rounded yet I can offset it by just being myself,” Adesanya added.

The Last Stylebender is still ranked No. 2 in the 185-pound division and is the betting favourite heading into this matchup.

A couple weeks ago at the first numbered event of 2025, fight fans witnessed the first major parlay-busting outcome of the year when -1200 favourite Payton Talbott had his hype bubble burst by rugged Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos on the UFC 311 prelims.

Our trio of MMA bettors had their Cage Locks parlay busted, yet ironically that Talbott loss was the one pick Dan got incorrect at the event as he nailed his other three picks, including the first dart throw hit of the year.

There are no super chalky favourites at UFC Saudi Arabia, which would indicate oddsmakers are expecting the 11-fight card to be full of competitive matchups.

A middleweight bout between Ikram Aliskerov and André Muniz was cancelled after Muniz underwent passport issues; a lightweight bout between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Bolaji Oki was cancelled after Oki withdrew for undisclosed reasons.

Complete UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov

-- Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page

-- Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

-- Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

-- Farès Ziam vs. Mike Davis

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli

-- Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen

-- Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadzovic

-- Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

-- Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander

-- Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions using fantasy dollars: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS
Best bet: McKinney vs. Hadzovic ends inside the distance -800
Favourite: Israel Adesanya -165
Underdog: Vinicius Oliveira +150
Dart throw: Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik goes to a decision +500

I do not see a way where McKinney and Hadzovic goes the distance unless McKinney attempts a wrestle-heavy game plan where he does not look for submissions, which would be completely contrary to what we have seen from him in the past. Adesanya has great value against Imavov, who I do not believe can keep up with him in the striking realm. If he looks to grapple, that is where the fight could get a bit more interesting, but he has typically been a striking-first fighter.

Can two fighters with the surname Nurmagomedov lose on back-to-back UFC cards? It’s not the safest best, but I have been very impressed with what I have seen from Oliveira thus far and I like him at an underdog price. Finally, Pavlovich looked tentative in his last fight against a well-rounded striker like Volkov. I believe that Rozenstruik poses that same puzzle, which could make this a drawn-out tactical affair. It’s definitely a dart throw, because we have seen what both of these men are capable of in the first round.

DAN'S PICKS
Best bet: Jasmine Jasudavicius to win outright -225
Favourite:  Said Nurmagomedov -160
Underdog: Michael Page +150
Dart throw: Michael Page by KO/TKO/DQ +525

After going three for four with my picks last week I’m slightly less confident heading into this one. There are no real safe picks on this card. I do think Jasmine Jasudavicius gets her hand raised. There are too many question marks surrounding what kind of shape Mayra Bueno Silva will be in after leaving American Top Team to train in Brazil for this bout. Jasmine, led by the great Chris Prickett, will be in fighting shape for this one and should be on the front foot for most of the bout. MVP is such a wildcard inside the Octagon that I think he can upset the odds…even against a seemingly flawless opponent like Shara Bullet. And with the TKO threat always a split second away, I think it’s worth doubling down with a dart throw on MVP to provide another viral moment by winning in spectacular fashion.

MIKE'S PICKS
Best bet: Shamil Gaziev to win outright -350
Favourite: Hamdy Abdelwahab -120
Underdog: Michael Page +150
Dart throw: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO/DQ +400

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik has the potential to end quickly and/or at any moment. These heavyweights are about as heavy handed as any fighter in MMA an neither boast granite chins. I see Rozenstruik as big-time undervalued here in a matchup I view as way more even than these odds indicate. I view a KO prop in this matchup as essentially the same as a moneyline wager. Also, it would be a shame if a likeable welterweight moved up a division and, as the underdog, schooled an undefeated and hyped middleweight who assaults people in shopping malls. Would be a real shame if that were to happen in the co-main event on Saturday.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: McKinney vs. Hadzovic inside distance + Jasudavicius + Gaziev
Parlay odds: +109 (to win: $109)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 2 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 1-1 (streak: L1)
2025 winnings: -$47.70 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS
Best bet: 2-0 (+$20)
Favourite: 0-2 (-$200)
Underdog: 1-1 (+$120)
Dart throw: 0-2 (-$200)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS
Best bet: 1-1 (-$84.62)
Favourite: 1-1 (-$20)
Underdog: 2-0 (+$300)
Dart throw: 1-1 (+$360)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS
Best bet: 2-0 (+$60)
Favourite: 2-0 (+$148.97)
Underdog: 1-1 (+$120)
Dart throw: 0-2 (-$100)

Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)