Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC returns to the Apex for the first time in four weeks with a Fight Night card headlined by flyweight contenders Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira who look to make a case for a title shot at 125 pounds.
A middleweight bout between the seasoned Brad Tavares and the under-the-radar Park Jun-yong, plus lightweights Grant Dawson and Rafa Garcia meet on a card that also features three welterweight bouts involving fighters looking to earn a spot in the 170-pound rankings.
Three fighters missed weight on their initial attempts Friday. Josh Fremd missed the non-title middleweight mark by three pounds (189 pounds), welterweight Jared Gooden was off by a pound-and-a-half (172.5 pounds) and Dan Argueta was 2.5 pounds heavy (138.5 pounds) have all missed weight for tomorrow's card.
As a result, Fremd's bout with Abdul Razak Alhassan was removed from the card. Gooden will forfeit 20 per cent of his purse to opponent Chidi Njokuani, and Argueta forfeits 20 per cent of his purse to opponent Cody Haddon but both of bouts will remain on the card.
Our brave trio of bettors extended their parlay streak to five successful events in a row. Some said an accomplishment like that could never be done. This week there’s two monleyline picks and one prop involved in the parlay.
Saturday’s full card and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
-- Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
-- Brad Tavares vs. Park Jun-yong
-- Grant Dawson vs. Rafa García
-- Julia Polastri vs. Cory McKenna
-- Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
-- Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Josh Fremd
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
-- C.J. Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov
-- Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
-- Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price
-- Junior Tafa vs. Sean Sharaf
-- Daniel Argueta vs. Cody Haddon
-- Clayton Carpenter vs. Lucas Rocha
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Tavares vs. Park starts Round 3 -400
Tavares and Park are two tactical fighters who have been notoriously difficult to finish during their UFC tenures and I expect that this fight enters the later rounds en route to a decision.
Dan: Themba Gorimbo to win outright -400
Gorimbo has won three in a row and seems committed to getting better with each fight. His last victory, by his own admission, was unspectacular. I expect him to aggressively take this bout to Niko Price from start to finish and earn another shoutout from The Rock.
Mike: Grant Dawson to win outright -450
Dawson can hang with ranked 155-pounders and I see him being too much for Garcia here from start to finish. I’d pick Dawson to beat nearly all unranked lightweights.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -110 (to win: $82.97)
2024 Record: 18-15 (current streak: W5)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$71.49
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Taira vs. Royval does not go the distance -161
Both Taira and Royval have been potent finishers, both boasting finish rates above 75 per cent and I expect that in a five round fight we see one of these two contenders find a finish.
Taira has been known to target the arms as well and with Royval having shoulder issues over his career, he could be opportunistic in that regard.
Dan: JunYong Park -192
I don't consider any of the favourites at -200 or less to be safe bets. But given that Brad Tavares has been knocked out in 2 or his last 3 fights I will lean JunYong Park on this one.
Mike: Chidi Njokuani to win outright -185
I really like Chidi Njokuani as a welterweight and think he can build off his March win over Rhys McKee in March even against a dangerous opponent like Jared Gooden.
Aaron’s favourite record: 18-15
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$318.48
Dan’s favourite record: 23-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$446.58
Mike’s favourite record: 18-14-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$197.49
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Alex Morono +175
Morono and Rodriguez both have solid boxing skills, but while I think Rodriguez has an advantage there, Morono can make up for it if there are any grappling exchanges. I think that this fight should be lined closer than it is and that's why I am going with Morono.
Dan: Lucas Rocha +170
What's going on with the odds on this card? It's looking like easy pickings for some of the underdogs here. Prior to signing with the UFC, Lucas Rocha had a history of knocking guys out. At +170 it's worth seeing if he can hand Clayton Carpenter his first MMA defeat.
Mike: Brandon Royval +240
I haven’t been hitting on dogs much lately and this isn’t a favourable style matchup for Royval yet at these odds I don’t mind taking a chance on the No. 1-ranked flyweight contender whose offensive pressure could potentially overwhelm his 24-year-old opponent throughout the main event enough to steal rounds or possibly pick up a late finish.
Aaron’s underdog record: 12-21
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$355
Dan’s underdog record: 10-23
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,047
Mike’s underdog record: 13-20
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$199.76
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Pat Sabatini by submission +500
While Pearce is a strong grappler in his own right, Sabatini has earned 11 of his 18 victories by submission and with Pearce likely to engage in grappling exchanges, I believe that will create opportunities for Sabatini to find an opening.
Dan: Brandon Royval by TKO/KO, DQ or Submission +550
Can't believe this prop is sitting there at +550. Royval has shown that he can finish opponents and is crafty enough to negate Taira's strong points. Things might get a bit turbulent at times, but Raw Dawg is more than capable of producing what the oddsmakers consider an improbable outcome here.
Mike: Grant Dawson by KO/TKO/DQ +900
Doubling down on Dawson and going with his least likely method of victory because sometimes MMA is like that.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 5-27-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$50
Dan’s dart throw record: 4-29
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$250
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-27-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,150
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
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