UFC Cage Locks: Is everyone, including Jon Jones, overlooking Stipe Miocic?

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

The biggest mixed martial arts organization returns to the world’s most famous arena for UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden on Saturday and what better way to celebrate the occasion than with a heavyweight championship main event?

Jon Jones returns from a year-and-a-half layoff following a pectoral injury to attempt to defend his heavyweight title for the first time when he takes on former champion Stipe Miocic who is making a comeback after 3.5 years away from the sport.

Interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall and the fact he has been around as the official backup fighter has added a new layer of drama to an already tense atmosphere.

The co-main event sees a five-round rematch between two of the sport’s most exciting fighters when former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira takes on Michael Chandler who’ll be making his third appearance at MSG in just his sixth UFC fight.

There are former champions and possibly a few future champions on the undercard, too.

UFC 309 bout order and full predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

-- Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

-- Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

-- Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva

-- Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee

-- Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

-- Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson

-- David Onama vs. Roberto Romero

-- Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz

-- Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

-- Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot

-- Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Mauricio Ruffy to win outright -900

Nobody is making money betting against those training with The Fighting Nerds, who are nearly a lock to be the “gym of the year” with ascending fighters like Caio Borralho, Jean Silva, Bruna Brasil and last weekend’s headliner Carlos Prates. Ruffy is a long lightweight with major power who keeps improving and I think that he defeats James Llontop, who accepted this extremely difficult fight on very short notice. At 25, Llontop’s 0-2 UFC record is not indicative of his talent and I expect that he will be a tough out for Ruffy, but I think that Llontop is in over his head for this one.

Dan: Bo Nickal to win outright -1100

This will be Nickal's toughest test to date in the UFC. While Paul Craig is always a submission threat, I think Nickal is too good to fall into any traps on Saturday night. Nickal is a superstar in the making and UFC 309 is the next step in that process.

Mike: Jones vs. Miocic ends inside the distance -475

There aren’t any prop odds listed on Jones poking Miocic in the eyes at least once during the main event as the UFC reverts to the old gloves, otherwise that would be my lock actually. We were 10 seconds away from hitting the parlay last week yet Carlos Prates ended that dream and Neil Magny’s night to put us back in the L column. This week’s parlay is a low bar to clear at these odds but I seriously doubt the main event requires the full 25 minutes.

Three-headed Parlay Odds: -214 (to win: $46.73)
2024 Record: 20-18 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$50.77

FAVOURITE

Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)

Aaron: Mickey Gall -140

Having Gall as my favourite favourite at any point was not on my bingo card, but here we are. Brahimaj has fought very poorly in his recent outings. In his last two fights, he landed a total of three significant strikes over three and a half rounds, which is absurdly low output. I think that Brahimaj will have an advantage on the ground, but not by a big margin, at least from an MMA standpoint, and on the feet, I think Gall has a marked advantage.

Dan: Veronica Hardy -145

Veronica Hardy has been on a roll with three straight wins all of them coming via scorecards. Eduarda Moura is a dangerous striker but has struggled when dragged into deep waters. Look for Hardy to find a way to drag this to scorecards and get the W.

Mike: Eryk Anders -115

Getting his hand raised against a former champion like Chris Weidman would be quite the career achievement for the new father who recently opened up about being more than a year sober. I'm expecting him to have one of the best performances of his career despite the fact he's being overlooked and the odds have shifted towards Weidman during fight week.

Aaron’s favourite record: 21-17
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$317.76

Dan’s favourite record: 28-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$727.02

Mike’s favourite record: 20-17-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$389.39

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Bassil Hafez +240

I keep picking against Oban Elliott and he keeps proving me wrong and that may yet happen again, but Hafez is someone who will fight for your money. He has an incredible motor, slick takedowns and is not a fish out of water on the feet. Him and Elliott have a lot in common in terms of their games and I expect a close and competitive fight, which makes Hafez such an attractive underdog option.

Dan: Jonathan Martinez +120

Jonathan Martinez was sniping down opponents before losing to Jose Aldo on the scorecards. Marcus McGhee also packs a punch, so one of these two is likely getting slept here. Give me Martinez here simply because he is the underdog.

Mike: Paul Craig +800

The Scotsman has lost four of five and been finished in three of four. Nickal is genuinely one of the best prospects on the rise with multiple ways to win this matchup. Craig is calling his shot and saying he’ll win via triangle and considering what he has done to Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill in the past I see it as a possibility.

Aaron’s underdog record: 14-24
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$365

Dan’s underdog record: 10-28
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,547

Mike’s underdog record: 15-23
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$79.76

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Stipe Miocic +500

Jones is the greatest of all-time, but if Miocic is able to extend this fight and keep it on the feet, I think that he is the heavier hitter with better boxing and can give Jones fits. Many of the advantages that Jones had at light heavyweight are slightly diminished at heavyweight in terms of his distance and range management that a lot of heavyweights have previously experienced, especially someone like Miocic, who has fought heavyweights of all shapes and sizes. Jones wins this fight more often than not, but these odds are out of whack.

Dan: Bo Nickal v Paul Craig goes the distance +550

There could be a feeling out process in this one with two styles that could cancel out the probability of a finish to take place inside the distance. I have no doubt Nickal wins but Paul Craig is no easy out.

Mike: Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO/DQ +700

Jones is likely to take this fight to the ground at some point and if he gets on top he could get a dominant finish, but if the two ever exchange at boxing range Miocic should still have a puncher’s chance. Miocic will be slower than Jones but if his durability and takedown defence holds up long enough for him to land some offence of his own, it could get competitive. Some might argue it would be a real shame if a humble, respected and respectable blue-collar former champion chinned a proven cheater who spins disingenuous narratives to make his opponents seem like they’re the bad guy. The only downside of that improbable outcome for many fight fans would be that it would likely further decrease the odds Tom Aspinall gets a shot at Jones.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-30-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$850

Dan’s dart throw record: 4-34
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$250

Mike’s dart throw record: 6-31-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,650

(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)