UFC Cage Locks: Namajunas, Ribas ready for five rounds at flyweight

Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas is hoping for a better result her second time competing in the flyweight division when she faces Amanda Ribas in the main event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Namajunas will look to avoid the first three-fight losing streak of her career. She lost the 115-pound title to Carla Esparza via split decision in 2022 and is coming off a three-round unanimous decision to Manon Fiorot this past September in her 125-pound debut. Namajunas as not won a fight since her back-to-back victories over Zhang Weili in 2021.

Ribas has never previously competed in a scheduled five-round bout or main event in her UFC career. The Brazilian has gone 3-3 alternating wins and losses over the past four years. She is coming off a stoppage win over Luana Pinheiro in a Performance of the Night outing in November.

All 26 fighters scheduled to compete on the 13-fight card made weight Friday. Complete UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

-- Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas    

-- Justin Tafa vs. Karl Williams

-- Edmen Shahbazyan vs. A.J. Dobson

-- Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman

-- Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal

-- Fernando Padilla vs. Luis Pajuelo

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden

-- Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa

-- Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson

-- Jarno Errens vs. Steven Nguyen

-- Montserrat Rendon vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

-- Igor Severino vs. André Lima

-- Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin

CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Ribas vs. Namajunas starts Round 2 -600 (DraftKings)

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. This is a five-round women's flyweight main event, a division with one of the lowest finishing rates in the promotion. For our three-headed monster, I always prioritize the highest margin of safety and this is the one.

Dan: Miles Johns to win outright -137 (BetOnline)

Was tempted to take “Chapo” to win inside the distance here, but for the sake of this parlay I will pick the safer outcome. Johns will be looking to start a new chapter in his MMA career and put all the noise that came with a failed drug test and suspension firmly behind him. His opponent is Cody Gibson is coming off a UD loss to Brad Katona in the TUF 31 finale and hasn’t faced the calibre of an opponent like Johns in a very long time. Despite taking this fight on short notice, look for Johns to get back to his winning ways on Saturday night.

Mike: Edmen Shahbazyan to win outright -188 (Bet365)

After going 0-4 and getting another “lock” incorrect last week by predictingKennedy Nzechukwu (the biggest favourite on the entire card) would finish Ovince Saint Preux. He lost outright and some are asking, ‘Mike, your picks are terrible, are you intentionally sabotaging the three-headed parlay?’ I assure you I’m not, although I am generally averse to chalky bets and my poor track record supports that. Perhaps it is silly to feel confident in Shahbazyan considering he has lost four of five dating back to 2019 and A.J. Dobson has the skills to give Shahbazyan similar problems in the smaller UFC Apex cage. Shahbazyan’s level of competition is so much stronger and the fact he is still only 26 gives me hope we have not already seen the best from Shahbazyan in the UFC. Also, if Dobson wins and the parlay fails again because of me, next event I might make the chalkiest pick in the history of sports betting.

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +209 (to win $209)
2024 Record: 3-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300.73

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Karl Williams -185 (DraftKings)

It was just last month that Justin Tafa had to pull out of his fight with Marcos Rogerio de Lima due to an injured knee and now he has to spend three rounds defending the relentless takedown offence of Karl Williams? Tafa has a 100 per cent takedown defence rate, but has not faced any solid grapplers and stuffed takedowns from fighters who are nowhere near as good at wrestling offence as Williams. Unless Williams gets caught with something big, I expect him to take Tafa down and make it a very long night.

Dan: Trey Ogden -150 (FanDuel)

Sticking with the theme of betting against TUF 31 competitors, I like Trey Ogden’s chances of getting his hand raised against Kurt Holobaugh. Ogden has had some bad luck with referee and scorecard decisions the last few bouts. He is much better inside the octagon than his UFC record indicates (1-2, 1 NC) as he looks to claim the 17th win of his professional MMA career (16-6, 1 NC)

Mike: Rose Namajunas -200 (BetMGM)

The former two-time strawweight champ should have a clear striking advantage against Ribas, a fighter who often takes a lot of damage on the feet. Although her recent track record isn’t great and these odds aren’t the most profitable, I see Namajunas as having more paths to victory and the more likely fighter to get a stoppage.

Aaron’s favourite record: 5-4
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$69

Dan’s favourite record: 6-3
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $66.80

Mike’s favourite record: 3-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$401.46

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Cameron Saaiman +130 (Bovada)

I believe in Payton Talbott’s abilities and feel like he will be a contender in the future, but Saaiman is going to be a major step up in competition that I am just not certain that he is ready for at this stage. These are two bright prospects, but I feel Saaiman’s strengths will negate those of Talbott and after losing to Christian Rodriguez, who missed weight by a good amount, in his last outing, he still gave a strong account of himself in what was a fairly close fight. I need to see Talbott beat Saaiman in order to believe it is possible and with Saaiman as the underdog, I have to go with him.

Dan: Mohammed Usman +125 (BetMGM)

It’s not all bad news for Ultimate Fighter alumni on Saturday with Usman looking to remain undefeated in the UFC. The TUF 30 winner is an absolute beast and seems to be getting better with every fight. He faces his toughest opponent to date in Mick Parkin, who is also unbeaten in the UFC. In fact, Parkin is unbeaten as pro (8-0). I just don’t see him being able to finish Usman. I expect “The Motor” to outwork Parkin in deep waters, and win this one on the scorecards.  

Mike: Youssef Zalal +100 (FanDuel)

Wouldn’t be surprised if the line here completely flipflopped by the time these featherweights step into the cage. Zalal has been gaining some steam and his current winning streak that earned him a second crack at the UFC roster is likely why. He looks to have gotten back on track with three stoppages to boost his confidence and his four-fight winless streak that got him cut has aged quite well. One loss was a split decision, one was a majority draw with an easy argument to make that Zalal should’ve won, and his first loss in the UFC was a three-round decision to current 145-pound champion Ilia Topuria.

Aaron’s underdog record: 5-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $290

Dan’s underdog record: 2-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$490

Mike’s underdog record: 4-5
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$38

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Amanda Ribas by decision +700 (BetOnline)

Saturday’s main event is a tough one to pin down. Namajunas has shown in the past that she has the skills to beat anyone put in front of her and, at her best, I believe that to be true. However, I can’t get her last two performances out of my mind. Her decision to stand and trade with a much bigger and more credentialed fighter in Manon Fiorot paired with her decision to stand and not trade with the inferior striker in Carla Esparza are both baffling.

My fear is that something that we once saw in Rose is missing and with her second straight fight without Trevor Wittman in her corner, I need to see a glimpse of the old Rose to believe that it still exists in there somewhere. I hope that she proved me wrong, but until then, there is way too much value on a Ribas decision.

Dan: Igor Severino to win by points +500 (FanDuel)

Andre Lima vs Igor Severino will be a tightly contested flyweight bout with scorecards likely on the horizon. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts following success on Season 7 of DWCS. I’m backing Igor in this one mainly because I was impressed with his finish of Jhonata Silva back in September. He is the younger of the two fighters and has a slight reach advantage on the jab. Severino’s tactical aggression should negate Lima’s kickboxing and earn him a win on scorecards.

Mike: Ricardo Ramos to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3 +600 (FanDuel)

Ramos and Erosa are more known for their submission skills yet I see value here on a Ramos KO. Erosa’s striking defence is not a strength of his and he has been knocked down in a large percentage of his UFC outings. As long as Ramos doesn’t leave his neck exposed I like his speed and creativity to create opening and he’ll eventually find the target.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-7-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200

Dan’s dart throw record: 1-8
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100

Mike’s dart throw record: 2-6-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $700