Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC is set to kick off its 2024 fight schedule in its Nevada home base at the UFC Apex this weekend with a huge rematch in the UFC’s exciting 205-pound division between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker headlining the event.
In addition to an electric main event, Saturday’s card features a handful of promising fighters making their UFC debuts, plus two of the UFC’s most respected and winningest fighters.
The 11-fight card was initially supposed to feature two anticipated rematches with potential title implications, however, a flyweight co-main event between Matheus Nicolau and Manel Kape was pulled from the event after Kape missed weight by 3.5 pounds Friday afternoon.
Jim Miller will look for another performance bonus when he faces Gabriel Benitez in the new co-main, while former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski can move into sole possession of second place on the UFC’s all-time wins list behind Miller if he can upset knockout artist Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Complete bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
-- Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
-- Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
-- Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
-- Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
-- Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons
-- Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolanos
-- Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
-- Westin Wilson vs. Jean Silva
-- Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta
-- Joshua Van vs. Felipe Bunes
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Simon vs. Bautista — Fight Starts Round 2 -550 (Bovada)
While Mario Bautista had a run of three straight fights ending in the first round, Ricky Simon has always been a difficult puzzle to solve, and his bout against Song Yadong last year showed how durable he is. I believe that there will be a feeling-out process in this fight and expect the most likely outcome is that this goes to the scorecards, so I am very comfortable relying on this bout to start the second round.
Dan: Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win outright -700 (FanDuel)
Odds in MMA can make fools of us all, especially if vintage Andrei Arlovski shows up in this bout. But Waldo Cortes-Acosta is coming off the biggest win of his career and the biggest knockout of his career over Lukasz Brzeski. His boxing skills are impressive and his knockout power is ferocious. He has a patient approach but is deceivingly quick for a big guy and covers a lot of ground. The childhood UFC fan in me wants Arlovski to turn back the hands of time and pull out a win, I just don’t see a scenario where that is possible. Look for Cortes-Acosta to stop the legendary Arlovski by strikes in Round 2.
Mike: Tom Nolan to win outright -345 (DraftKings)
Was tempted to simply take Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta to finish under 2.5 rounds at a less profitable number because I don’t see this one requiring the judges. Both are finishers, but the youngster from Australia is undefeated, has momentum coming off a highlight-reel KO on the Contender Series this past August and stylistically this matchup presents an opportunity for him to add another highlight finish to his résumé in his first official UFC bout.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -135
2024 parlay record: 0-0
Total 2024 parlay winnings on $100 bets: $0
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Ricky Simon -180 (Bovada)
With only four favourites listed at a price tag below -200, I have to go with Simon as he is the only one that I am fairly confident will win. While Mario Bautista is a more well-rounded fighter, I believe that Simon’s wrestling, cardio and fight IQ will give him the better winning conditions overall.
Mike: Brunno Ferreira -142 (DraftKings)
This is a chalky card with a dearth of short favourites, so the options are limited. This one is straightforward though. Ferreira hits like a truck and I do not trust Hawes's chin as he has lost three of his past four by first-round KO.
Dan: Jim Miller -152 (FanDuel)
Evidence doesn’t win UFC bouts, the athletes do. But I really like Jim Miller’s chances in this one based on MMA evidence. The last person to defeat Miller straight up, with no scorecard, was Charles Oliveira back in 2018. Benitez has either won or lost by KO in his last four bouts (2-2 in this span). Difficult to see this one going all three rounds and difficult to see Miller getting KO’d for the first time since Dan Hooker did it back in 2018. Look for Miller to get the win by submission and make a serious claim to be featured on UFC 300.
Aaron’s favourite record: 0-0
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $0
Dan’s favourite record: 0-0
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $0
Mike’s favourite record: 0-0
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $0
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Taylor Lapilus +220 (Bovada)
Farid Basharat has a lot of deserved hype as an 11-0 fighter with quality wins over Kleydson Rodrigues and Da’Mon Blackshear in his two most recent bouts, however, he is prohibitively priced as a near 3-to-1 favourite against a reliably solid, technical fighter in his prime who is always in closely contested bouts.
Dan: Phil Hawes +120 (DraftKings)
Both fighters enter this bout in identical fashion, coming off Round 1 KO losses to guys making their UFC debuts. Ferreira was unceremoniously knocked out for the first time in his young MMA career by Nursulton Ruziboev at UFC Vegas 76. But in the case of Phil Hawes, he showed flashes of a newly adopted Muay Thai game and had been bossing the fight until getting knocked out against the run of action. His left kick/right hand combinations were particularly impressive and showed that Hawes may be adding another layer to his already impressive wrestling game. The once-promising prospect is now 34 years old and needs this win more than Ferreira. The Brazilian packs plenty of power and frequently switches his fight stance but has never been taken to the scorecards before, and I expect the wily Hawes to do just that. Look for Hawes to out-wrestle Ferreira in deep waters and grind out a decision victory.
Mike: Preston Parsons +102 (FanDuel)
Was leaning Nicolau as more than a 2-to-1 dog prior to the co-main being cancelled. Parsons vs. Semelsberger is close to a toss-up but since Parsons is now at plus-money I’ll take it. I have a sneaking suspicion Semelsberger is live for an early KO here, but I also see Parsons being the busier fighter and threatening with submissions the longer it goes.
Aaron’s underdog record: 0-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
Dan’s underdog record: 0-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
Mike’s underdog record: 0-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Phil Hawes wins by decision +1000 (DraftKings)
Ferreira has big power and as a result, he has a 100 per cent finish rate. This is something that Hawes will be very aware of entering this bout and if his best winning conditions are with what should be a solid wrestling advantage. Should Hawes implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, perhaps he is able to use that to neutralize Ferreira and control him to win a comfortable decision.
Dan: Westin Wilson by Submission +600 (Fan Duel)
Seemed like a good idea at the time. ... That is pretty much how I justify all my dart throws. So here it goes: Westin Wilson to win by submission. In no way do I actually believe it will happen ... but just the thrill alone at +600 will be worth it. If there is any scenario where Wilson could pull off an upset win against Jean Silva, it would be by strangle. His last seven wins in MMA have been by submission mostly via RNC or guillotine.
Mike: Joshua Van by Round 2 KO/TKO +700 (Bet365)
The solid flyweight prospect is taking this fight on short notice against a debuting fighter, so Van may not be super aggressive immediately. Once he finds his rhythm, though, he’ll eventually wear his opponent down and make his case for a bonus.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
Dan’s dart throw record: 0-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
Mike’s dart throw record: 0-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
(Betting odds as of Friday and subject to change prior to fights)
COMMENTS
When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.