UFC Cage Locks: What does former champ Cejudo have left in the tank?

The UFC returns to Seattle this weekend for the first time since 2013 with a Fight Night card headlined by former two-weight champion Henry Cejudo returning to face rising 135-pounder Song Yadong in a featured five-round matchup.

Cejudo, 38, is a former UFC flyweight and bantamweight titleholder, not to mention a 2008 Olympic gold medallist, is looking to snap a two-fight losing and make one final title run before retiring. Song, 27, is 10-3-1 in the UFC and also looking to get back in the win column after falling short against former champ Petr Yan over three rounds at UFC 299 almost one year ago.

Brendan Allen will look to avenge a previous loss from early in his career when he faces the red-hot Anthony Hernandez in an anticipated middleweight co-main event.

Hernandez is a heavy betting favourite heading into the card at Climate Pledge Arena and was nearly heavy on the scales. 

The 31-year-old from California was the final fighter to step on the scale Friday morning and looked relieved when he came in at the non-title middleweight limit of 186 pounds with mere minutes to spare. Hernandez has made weight ahead of every fight of his UFC career.

All 24 fighters scheduled to compete at UFC Seattle successfully made weight.

The event was originally supposed to have former UFC and WEC bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz compete in his final pro bout and past TUF winner Michael Chiesa fight in his hometown however the card has underdone a handful of changes in the past couple weeks.

Below is the projected bout order and full predictions for the sixth event thus far in 2025.

MAIN CARD
-- Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong

-- Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez

-- Rob Font vs. Jean Matsumoto

-- Jean Silva vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

-- Alonzo Menifield vs. Julius Walker

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Ion Cutelaba vs. Ibo Aslan

-- Andre Fili vs. Melquizael Costa

-- Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Nick Klein

-- Ricky Simon vs. Javid Basharat

-- Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Austin Vanderford

-- Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Eric McConico

-- Modestas Bukauskas vs. Raffael Cerqueira

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS
Best bet: Simon vs. Basharat Starts Round 3 -500
Favourite: Aslan vs. Cutelaba does not start Round 3 -200
Underdog: Rob Font +135
Dart throw: Brendan Allen wins by decision +450

Simon and Basharat will go the distance, like most of their fights do, more often than not so I expect a third-round start, while only one of Aslan’s fights have entered the third round and the majority of Cutelaba’s fights have not made it to the third round, so an early finish is definitely on the table in that contest.

Font is a difficult puzzle to solve and while Matsumoto is undefeated, he had a lot of trouble with Brad Katona in his last outing and I expect that facing a seasoned veteran like Font on short notice will be a handful. Allen and Hernandez is a more competitive fight than the odds indicate and I would not be surprised to see Allen squeak out a decision win.

DAN'S PICKS
Best bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik -1200
Favourite: Ibo Aslan -188
Underdog: Henry Cejudo +215
Dart throw: Raffael Cerqueira by decision +800

After heading back to the proverbial pay window three out of four times last week, it’s time to go big hunting. OK, the “best bet pick” is as low-risk as it gets but I think the other three selections offer some real value. Ibo Aslan looks like he’s on another level and I expect him to be able to out strike “The Hulk” Ion Cutelaba. Song Yadong is a beast, but Henry Cejudo’s accomplishments in MMA and at the Olympics speak for themselves. Yes, he’s lost two in a row but that was against Merab and Sterling. I think Cejudo reminds everyone there are levels to this on Saturday.

Before we chuckle at my dart throw, it’s worth noting that Modestas Bukauskas was on wobbly-leg street in his last bout before snatching a submission victory. Cerqueira was 11-0 prior to joining the UFC. He was caught by Aslan in his debut, but in Seattle he should have a more composed outing. An upset could be in the cards here, and hopefully on the scorecards.

MIKE'S PICKS
Best bet: Jean Silva -555
Favourite: Song Yadong -263
Underdog: Brendan Allen +265
Dart throw: Julius Walker by KO/TKO in over 1.5 +1300

My gambling alter ego, Mikey The Parlay Saboteur, returned for the past two events. This matchup for Jean Silva doesn’t quite make sense, so I see the exciting Brazilian extending his hot streak and adding another highlight to his résumé. Between the odds being a little too one-sided for what should be a competitive co-main event, plus the fact Hernandez took a long time to finally weigh in on Friday and looked like he was cutting it close. I’ll take a shot on Allen to avenge his previous LFA loss to Hernandez. I predict the age and size difference will be key in the main event.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Simon vs. Basharat starts Round 3 + Mansur Abdul-Malik + Jean Silva
Parlay odds: -187 (to win: $53.42)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 5 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 2-3 (L2)
2025 winnings: -$138.70 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+6.92 units)
Best bet: 5-0 (+$74.48)
Favourite: 1-4 (-$346.81)
Underdog: 3-1-1 (+$365.24)
Dart throw: 2-3 (+$600)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+5.74 units)
Best bet: 4-1 (-$11.15)
Favourite: 3-2 (+$20.40)
Underdog: 4-1 (+$445.24)
Dart throw: 1-4 (+$60)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-2.40 units)
Best bet: 3-2 (-$111.43)
Favourite: 4-1 (+$201.27)
Underdog: 2-2-1 (+$170)
Dart throw: 0-5 (-$500)

Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)