Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
UFC 307 takes place Saturday in Salt Lake City with two title on the line and future championship aspirations at stake on the undercard.
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. for the light heavyweight title headlines the night and Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena for the women’s bantamweight title.
In addition to those two championship matchups, the 12-fight card at Delta Center also features some of the top talents in the sport in a variety of disciplines such as Kayla Harrison, Jose Aldo, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and many more stars.
Our panel of prognosticators are back in the green and looking for a fifth consecutive successful parlay hit following a UFC Paris event that concluded with the biggest dart throw hit of the year as “Money” Moicano came through with a +1400 TKO win for Dan.
Complete UFC 307 bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
-- Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (for light heavyweight title)
-- Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena (for women’s bantamweight title)
-- Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
-- Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison
-- Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
-- Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo
-- Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez
-- Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria
-- Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux
-- Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
-- Court McGee vs Tim Means
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Cesar Almeida to win outright -400
Almeida can have trouble with well-rounded fighters, but I believe in a fight against another striker like Potieria that he will have a big advantage overall and I expect he scores the win in a matchup taylor made for his skill set.
Dan: Alex Pereira to win outright -450
Poatan looks unstoppable at the moment and we are witnessing a dominant title run that seems to have no imminent end in sight. Rountree’s southpaw stance shouldn’t cause Pereira too many problems, considering how quickly the champ dispatched Jamahal Hill. Rountree’s speed and explosiveness could be a problem, but Pereira undoubtedly has a game plan in place. Expect Pereira to claim his fifth win in a row. Chama!
Mike: Kayla Harrison to win outright -1000
To quote Harrison’s coach Mike Brown: “Kayla is the best female fighter on the planet.” I tend to agree with that assessment, and believe the two-time Olympic gold medallist will take this fight down into her world and dominate on the ground. Inside the distance is way better value but we’ll keep it safe out of respect for her experienced and durable opponent.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -147 (to win: $68.06)
2024 Record: 17-15 (current streak: W4)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$3.43
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Alexander Hernandez -156
Skill for skill, I feel like Hernandez has an advantage in this fight in every area and while he has had a rocky UFC tenure, I expect that he bests Hubbard and is a step ahead of him in this fight.
Dan: Tecia Pennington -175
There are too many question marks for me as to which version of Carla Esparza shows up on Saturday night. Tecia Pennington is coming off a hard-fought loss to Tabatha Ricci where she showed that there is still plenty of MMA miles left in the tank, while Esparza returns from a lengthy layoff for one last fight. I think Tecia needs/wants this one more and likely does enough to win this on scorecards.
Mike: Raquel Pennington -160
A fun little bet could be a Pennington Parlay because I do believe both spouses will emerge victorious in Utah. Both are fighting former champions we haven’t seen in a while who lost their titles the last time out. Was really impressed with Pennington in Toronto earlier this year and she seems to be in a positive groove. I view her as the more well-rounded fighter and more efficient striker and I see that being the key difference the longer this fight goes (and there is a strong chance it goes the full 25).
Aaron’s favourite record: 17-15
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$382.58
Dan’s favourite record: 22-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$389.44
Mike’s favourite record: 18-13-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$97.49
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Jose Aldo +115
I have been very impressed with Mario Bautista, but I believe that his best winning conditions come from taking Aldo down, which has been a tall order for many bantamweights, including the champion Merab Dvalishvili. I like Aldo as an underdog in a three-round fight against just about anybody.
Dan: Roman Dolidze +120
I think the Dolidze vs. Holland bout goes the distance. Dolidze, who looks reinvigorated since he began training full time in Vegas, is capable of upsetting the odds. You have to go back 15 fights (Sept. 9, 2020) since Kevin Holland last won by decision. Dolidze is crafty enough to avoid a finish and inflict enough damage to end up on the right side of a decision at the very least.
Mike: Jose Aldo +115
Bautista has won eight of nine but none of those wins were as good as Aldo’s UFC 301 victory earlier this year over Jonathan Martinez. If Aldo is the same fighter he was in May, I see this fight playing out in a similar fashion.
Aaron’s underdog record: 12-20
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$255
Dan’s underdog record: 9-23
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,167
Mike’s underdog record: 13-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$99.76
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Khalil Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO/DQ +500
Rountree’s absolute best winning conditions come from finding a knockout at some point, which he is more than capable of doing. While I think a Pereira win is the more likely outcome, I cannot ignore Rountree’s striking prowess.
Dan: Ketlen Vieira +700
I think Harrison vs. Vieira bout will be much closer than the odds suggest. Harrison will be a future champion, but Vieira is more than capable of being a fork in that road to glory. Vieira is ranked No. 2 in the division for a reason and Harrison will need to put on a flawless performance here or there is potential for a massive upset. Vieira could ask some serious questions of Harrison in deep waters, and at seven-to-one it’s worth finding out what the answers are.
Mike: Khalil Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO/DQ +500
Personally, I think Rountree has an equal or better of upsetting Pereira than Jamahal Hill did in April and that fight was lined as basically a tossup with a lot of sharp money on Hill. At this price, the way I see it, this is essentially a moneyline wager on the challenger as this fight going the distance seems unlikely.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 5-26-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$50
Dan’s dart throw record: 4-28
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$350
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-26-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,250
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
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