Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC is concluding its 2024 pay-per-view slate with a stacked UFC 310 card featuring a men’s flyweight championship bout plus a five-round co-main event between unbeaten welterweight contenders
Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura both made weight ahead of their 125-pound headliner, as did Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry ahead of their 170-pound title eliminator.
There are also three former UFC titleholders and several past title contenders on the undercard.
Complete bout order and full predictions for the UFC's penultimate event of the year below.
Watch UFC 310 on Sportsnet+
Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his title against Kai Asakura, plus undefeated welterweights Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry meet in a five-round co-main event. Watch UFC 310 on Saturday with prelim coverage beginning 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, and the pay-per-view main card starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.
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MAIN CARD
-- Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura (five rounds for men’s flyweight title)
-- Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry (five-round non-title bout)
-- Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
-- Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie
-- Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes
-- Vicente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo
-- Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
-- Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle
-- Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
-- Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
-- Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
-- Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper
-- Lukasz Brzeski vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Evloev vs. Sterling Over 2.5 Rounds -355
This is a closely matched fight between two fighters with elite grappling and solid striking that I believe will be something of a stalemate, resulting in a close and competitive fight. I expect that this fight goes to the scorecards eight out of ten times.
Dan: Chase Hooper to win outright -1000
It would be a great story if Clay Guida could defy the odds here and pull out a win. But at 42 years old and coming off back-to-back losses, it’s difficult to argue against anything other than a Chase Hooper win here. Hooper probably wins this inside the distance but Guida’s last 3 bouts have all gone to scorecards, so this pick is a much safer play.
Mike: Bryce Mitchell to win outright -800
Both outstanding grapplers but Kron Gracie has not shown himself to be a UFC-calibre featherweight in the 2020s. Mitchell’s wrestling and wider variety of MMA skills should be the difference.
Three-headed Parlay Odds: -171 (to win: $58.61)
2024 Record: 21-19 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$104.04
FAVOURITE
Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)
Aaron: Josh Van -145
Cody Durden is tough as nails, but I think that as long as Van can keep this fight standing that he will have a marked advantage on the feet. Van hit a bump in the road against Charles Johnson, but has beaten Edgar Chairez since then and I think that he should be a bigger favourite in this matchup.
Dan: Themba Gorimbo -150
Vicente Luque will not be an easy out. But Themba Gorimbo seems to be evolving leaps and bounds with each fight. Luque’s submission game, especially the choke threat, will be cause for concern here. But I expect Gorimbo to push the pace in this one and avoid falling into any traps as “The Answer” closes out 2024 with his fourth win of the year.
Mike: Nate Landwehr -133
Nate "The Train" taking on Doo Ho Choi is such a fun way to kick off the main card. Wouldn’t be surprised if Landwehr gets put on skates at some point in this fan friendly 15-minute scrap but his relentless pace and pressure will eventually wear down "The Korean Superboy."
Aaron’s favourite record: 22-18
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$322.52
Dan’s favourite record: 29-11
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$608.07
Mike’s favourite record: 21-17-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$335.34
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Randy Brown +197
Speaking of lines that are off, I am shocked that Brown is this big of an underdog against Bryan Battle. Battle looked phenomenal in his last fight, but I think that Brown is far more well-rounded than Kevin Jousset. He will give Battle all that he can handle.
Dan: Anthony Smith +295
Based on what I saw at media day, Anthony Smith is entering the Octagon on a mission to fulfill some bad intentions. He’s shown the ability to immediately bounce back from narrow losses with a win over the course of his career. He also upset the odds with a win over Victor Petrino back in May.
Mike: Ian Machado Garry +305
The odds seem way off on this one. A strong argument can be made that Machado Garry is a tougher style matchup for Shavkat Rakhmonov than the current champion Belal Muhammad would’ve been. This is one of the best non-title matchups that can be made in the sport right now and I don’t see Kazakhstan’s Rakhmonov running through the Irishman quite as easily as he has some of his previous opponents.
Aaron’s underdog record: 14-26
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$565
Dan’s underdog record: 11-29
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,482
Mike’s underdog record: 15-25
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$279.76
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Lucasz Brzeski by KO/TKO/DQ +1200
Brzeski is 1-4 in the UFC, but there's no denying his big power. Nzechukwu looked great against Chris Barnett, but it's clear that Barnett was compromised in that fight and with a fighter like Brzeski that will get in his face, I think it will be a taller order for Nzechukwu this time around.
Dan: Ian Machado Garry by decision +650
Even though this is a five-round fight, this outcome isn’t out of the realm of possibility here. Two undefeated fighters who will have studied their opponents thoroughly. It’s also been nearly one year since we’ve seen Shavkat Rakhmonov in action which may be cause for concern when this one goes into deep waters. This will be a very close fight and at +650 it’s well worth a try.
Mike: Alexandre Pantoja by submission in Round 3 +1100
Kai Asakura is an awesome addition to the UFC roster and should make some noise over the next couple years but I see him wearing Pantoja as a backpack for much his debut before the champ adds another submission victory to his record.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-32-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$650
Dan’s dart throw record: 5-35
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$200
Mike’s dart throw record: 6-33-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,450
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
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