UFC Cage Locks: Will the extra rounds impact Vettori vs. Dolidze sequel? 

The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas this weekend with middleweight action headlining a 13-bout Fight Night card.

Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze renew acquaintances in the main event two years after they went the distance in a three-round bout at UFC 286. The rematch is scheduled for five rounds and a spot in the top-10 rankings is likely at stake with Vettori entering the weekend the No. 8-ranked contender at 185 pounds with Dolidze sitting at No. 12.

Saturday’s event is a chalky card with more than half of the listed favourites sitting at longer than -300 odds.

The lineup also features a three-round welterweight contest between veterans Chidi Njokuani and Elizeu Zaleksi dos Santos, plus a handful of touted prospects who earned recent UFC contracts off the Contender Series.

Not all fighters set for to compete successfully made weight on Friday. In fact, three athletes missed the mark.

Diyar Nurgozhay weighed 210.5 pounds, missing the non-title light-heavyweight limit by 4.5 pounds ahead of his scheduled UFC debut against Brendson Ribeiro. Nurgozhay is 10-0 as a pro and coming off a stoppage win on DWCS. Josias Musasa, another unbeaten recent DWCS alumnus, missed the bantamweight limit by half a pound, weighing 136.5 pounds. Chidi Njokuani weighed 172.25, which means he missed by 1.25 pounds.

Below is the projected bout order and full predictions for UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2…

MAIN CARD

-- Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

-- Chidi Njokuani** vs. Elizeu Zaleksi dos Santos

-- Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh

-- Cody Gibson vs. Da'Mon Blackshear

-- Brendson Ribeiro vs. Diyar Nurgozhay**

-- Seung-woo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos

PRELIMINARY CARD

-- Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann

-- You Su-young vs. AJ Cunningham

-- Carlos Vera vs. Josias Musasa**

-- Sam Hughes vs. Stephanie Luciano

-- Daniel Barez vs. Andre Lima

-- Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira

-- Carli Judice vs. Yuneisy Duben

**athlete missed weight

Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.

AARON'S PICKS
Best bet: Luciano vs. Hughes Starts Round 3 -800
Favourite: Josiane Nunes -177
Underdog: Ryan Spann +150
Dart throw: Daniel Barez by decision +700

Aside from her debut, all of Sam Hughes’s fights have started Round 3 and I expect that trend to continue. … Nunes has fought at featherweight before and should have a considerable power advantage over Cachoeira, who typically fought at flyweight and is moving up due to egregious weight management issues. … Spann makes his UFC heavyweight debut against Waldo Cortes-Acosta and I believe that he is the more well-rounded fighter. … Barez is undervalued in this spot against Lima and I think that it will be a close and competitive fight. Lima wins more often than not, but there is value with Barez at these odds.

DAN'S PICKS
Best bet: Da’Mon Blackshear -455
Favourite: Josiane Nunes -177
Underdog: Roman Dolidze +140
Dart throw: Holobaugh wins by decision +500

Got my MMA mojo back after going 3/4 on picks last week! This week’s card offers plenty of value and I really like Roman Dolidze’s chances of pulling off an upset in the main event. He has looked like a completely different fighter since moving to Vegas full time to train. He’s coming off consecutive wins against very tough opponents while Vettori hasn’t fought since losing to Jared Cannonier in June of 2023. … I like Josianne Nunes’ chances of getting back in the win column. She failed to close the distance the last time out against Jacqueline Cavalcanti and it cost her the fight. That won’t’ be a problem this time around because she holds a reach advantage over Priscila Cachoeira. We haven’t seen Cachoeira in over a year. And she looked dreadful in that bout against Jasmine Jasudavicius at UFC 297. She had trouble cutting weight and lost a round 10-7. I don’t expect Nunes to dominate from bell to bell, but this should be a routine win. … Finally, Kurt Holobaugh leaves it all in the Octagon every time he competes. I expect his bout with Alexander Hernandez to be a war and potential Fight of the Night candidate. It will be a closely contested fight with a high probability of scorecards. I’m liking the risk vs reward of Holobaugh by decision.

MIKE'S PICKS
Best bet: Kevin Vallejos to win -588
Favourite: Josiane Nunes -177
Underdog: Brendson Ribeiro +305
Dart throw: Point to be deducted during Vettori vs. Dolidze +2000

Let’s get wild and throw out a main event point deduction prop! Could absolutely see eye pokes being a factor in the Vettori vs. Dolidze rematch, and in the past month we’ve seen some officials begin to punish fighters for fouls during fights after two of February’s main events ended partly due to eye-poke controversy. … Plenty of heavy favourites to pick for a parlay piece and Vallejos is one of the best young fighters featured this weekend. … Well, that makes Josiane Nunes a unanimous selection for us this week so hopefully we all benefit from getting a decent price on her based off the fact she’s coming off back-to-back loss.

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Luciano vs. Hughes Starts Round 3 + Blackshear + Vallejos
Parlay odds: -165 (to win: $60.57)

2025 STANDINGS AFTER 8 EVENTS

CAGE LOCKS PARLAY 
2025 record: 4-4 (W2)
2025 winnings: -$25.34 (on $100 bets)

AARON'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+12.34 units)
Best bet: 7-1 (+$35.49)
Favourite: 3-5 (-$346.81)
Underdog: 6-1-1 (+$745.24)
Dart throw: 3-5 (+$800)

DAN'S RECORDS/TOTALS (+2.67 units)
Best bet: 7-1 (+$36.21)
Favourite: 4-4 (-$99.60)
Underdog: 6-2 (+$570.24)
Dart throw: 1-7 (-$240)

MIKE'S RECORDS/TOTALS (-7.20 units)
Best bet: 6-2 (-$29.36)
Favourite: 5-3 (+$39.29)
Underdog: 3-4-1 (+$70)
Dart throw: 0-8 (-$800)

Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.

Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.

Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.

Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.

(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)