UFC London is a referendum week for Leon Edwards, Jan Blachowicz, others

"Referendum" has been one of my favourite words since first learning it back in elementary school. Something was happening in the government, leading the politicians on the news, parents and teachers to toss the word around as they discussed whatever matter was at hand.

It stuck with me because despite sounding sophisticated — referendum — the actual meaning is simple and clear: a general vote by the electorate on a single political question that has been referred to them for a direct decision.

It’s “Here’s a big yes or no question that we need your answers on,” and then everyone gets to have their say — yay or nay — and whatever side comes out ahead, that’s the result and away we go.

I tell you all that in order to tell you this: Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card at The O2 Arena in London feels like a referendum on a number of athletes slated to make the walk to the cage.

A win takes their career in one direction; a loss takes it in a completely different one.

UFC London is flush with critical matchups for familiar names, including a pair of former champions and a couple would-be contenders, and it’s time to pick those pairings apart and figure out where those athletes could end up depending on whether they get their hand raised this weekend in England.

LEON EDWARDS

The former welterweight champion competes for the first time since dropping the belt to Belal Muhammad last summer in Manchester, squaring off against Sean Brady in this weekend’s five-round main event. Edwards is only 33 years old, so in theory there are still a few quality years left in his prime given that we’re seeing fighters remain at the elite level later and later, especially above the lightweight division, and he’s still positioned as the No. 1 contender based on the official rankings heading into this one.

With a win: A quality effort over Brady would be a massive boost for “Rocky,” especially since he looked lethargic and without answers against Muhammad back in July. While I don’t see a victory being enough to merit an immediate title shot, it would certainly keep Edwards in the mix at the top of the division, where opportunities abound, regardless of how the championship main event at UFC 315 in Montreal on May 10 plays out.

With a loss: This is where it gets dicey, because depending on how you want to parse Edwards’ time at the top, it’s easy to come away uninspired. His title win was a last-minute prayer that was answered, and the rematch was solid, but far from special, followed by a pedestrian win over Colby Covington, who hadn’t fought in nearly two years.

Edwards was flat against Muhammad, and if he gets out-hustled by Brady, he’s at risk of falling out of that elite class perennially on the cusp of a title shot. He’d be on a two-fight skid and facing only tough assignments going forward, in a division where there is a ton of emerging talent that has thus far shown a propensity for getting people out of there or beating them handily.

SEAN BRADY

Some may want to argue that this is a little unfair to the Philadelphia native, as he’s 32 and has yet to really have a moment as a genuine contender in the welterweight division, but hear me out.

With a win: This is the fight Brady needs to win and win handily in order to establish himself as a legitimate threat in the 170-pound ranks. He’s looked great in his last two outings, but because he has a tendency to miss long stretches with injuries, the John Marquez disciple has yet to build the kind of momentum that propels a fighter into a championship opportunity off a fight like this against a former champion.

His history with Muhammad — the current champ is the only man to beat Brady thus far — certainly makes him an interesting name to watch off a victory, whether Muhammad retains his title or not.

With a loss: You only get so many opportunities to prove you’re capable of being a title contender, and while you could argue this is Brady’s first matchup with someone in that elite class — Muhammad wasn’t there when they fought at UFC 280 and Gilbert Burns, whom he beat in September, was no longer in that group at the time — his injury history and previous loss to the current champion when he wasn’t considered elite makes this a very important fight for him.

You also have to factor in where Edwards stands heading into this one too, as folks aren’t particularly high on the Birmingham man heading, so a loss to someone that fans and pundits are already slightly out on isn’t a good look.

JAN BLACHOWICZ

The Polish veteran makes his first appearance since battling Alex Pereira to a split decision at UFC 291 in the summer of 2023. His fight before that ended in a split draw verdict against current champ Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 282 in December 2022, which illustrates both where Blachowicz has stood in the division, and why so much is riding on this one.

With a win: If the former champion comes out and halts Carlos Ulberg’s march up the rankings this weekend, registering his first win since besting Aleksandar Rakic on May 14, 2022, then Blachowicz goes right back onto the short list of serious title challengers in the light-heavyweight division. He was clearly beating Ankalaev in the early stages of their matchup, battering Ankalaev’s lead leg, and if the Russian didn’t get a 10-8 score from the third official in the final round, the affable Pole is a two-time UFC titleholder. Plus, up until a couple weeks ago, he’s the person that did the best against Pereira at 205 pounds, which suggests Blachowicz is right there.

With a loss: Landing on the wrong side of things would force everyone (including Blachowicz himself) to take a long look at where he stands in the division and figure out what he wants to do going forward, as it would be three straight fights without a victory for the 42-year-old standout. And if you want to go beyond just the actual results themselves, the case for Blachowicz isn’t great over his last handful of outings. The win over Rakic came as a result of an injury in a fight that was 1-1 after two rounds, he dropped the title to Glover Teixeira on a night where he just didn’t turn up prior to that, and before that, he out-wrestled Israel Adesanya to defend his title after claiming the vacant strap by stopping Dominick Reyes, who was at the start of an ugly skid that he only steered out of last year.

Essentially, if Blachowicz loses to Ulberg it’s easy to see him sliding out of the top five in the rankings, at which point, what would be left for him to accomplish at his advancing age?

KEVIN HOLLAND

Already set to make his second appearance of the year, Holland arrives in London having suffered back-to-back first-round stoppages losses — the first by injury against Roman Dolidze at UFC 307, the most recent against Reinier de Ridder in January when he was confident the Dutchman wouldn’t submit him. While he’s super-active and engaging on social media, “Trailblazer” touches down at The O2 for his clash with the returning Gunnar Nelson having gone 1-4 over his last five and just 5-8 since his breakout 2020 campaign.

With a win: A victory cures all for Holland, who would keep himself in the “book often” column of the matchmakers’ call sheet. Though Nelson has been on the sidelines for two-plus years, he’s still an established name, and posting a quality win would further cement the 32-year-old Texan as a name brand talent you can plug in against veterans and emerging names alike and draw eyeballs.

With a loss: At some point, simply being willing to fight isn’t enough, and a third straight loss to someone that hasn’t competed in two years might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back when it comes to Holland and his hyper-active schedule. Not that he’s not going to get booked — he’s always going to get fights — but the level of competition he’s facing and the ability to use him as an established name in positions like this would be diminished further, making it a little less appealing to run him out there every eight weeks.

MOLLY MCCANN

The 34-year-old Scouser is likely to get the biggest pop of any fighter that makes the walk on Saturday, but she’s entering the Octagon for her bout against short-notice newcomer Alexia Thainara at a crossroads. All the excitement and positive vibes McCann garnered with her first-round submission win over Diana Belbita in her strawweight debut last February evaporated when she had little to offer against Bruna Brasil at UFC 304.

With a win: McCann is going to remain a fixture on U.K. cards as long as she’s still competing, but a win over Thainara affords her the opportunity to maintain her main card status and not just be sent out there against debuting fighters and Dana White’s Contender Series graduates, of which Thainara is both, though she is tagging in for Istela Nunes.

With a loss: Dropping two straight and four of five is never a good look, and getting beaten by a newcomer that took the fight late last week would certainly sting a little more, even though Thainara is solid and should have a good career in the UFC. “Meatball” doesn’t strike me as someone that is going to hang around and keep trudging out there despite diminishing returns, so another setback this weekend could prompt her to take a good hard look at her future plans as a competitor.

CHRISTIAN LEROY DUNCAN

Big things were expected of “CLD” when he arrived in the UFC as an undefeated middleweight prospect and former Cage Warriors champ, but it hasn’t quite worked out that way for the Mark Weir-trained fighter, who faces DWCS grad Andrey Pulyaev. Duncan is 3-2 in the UFC and coming off a loss to Gregory Rodrigues last summer, and it feels like this weekend’s matchup is a crucial one for the Gloucester man.

With a win: Beating Pulyaev once again steadies Duncan in the division, just as beating Denis Tiuliulin did following his initial loss to Armen Petrosyan did a couple years back. While it’s nothing earth-shattering, it would be a positive result against a solid opponent, and, more importantly, keep the once highly regarded prospect from suffering consecutive defeats for the first time in his career.

With a loss: Losing to Rodrigues is one thing. Faltering at home in England against a recent DWCS grad who has largely beaten warm bodies would be a bad look. We might already be beyond the point where Duncan can climb to the contender heights many thought he would achieve upon arrival, however a loss to a debuting fighter would likely prompt questions about whether he can hang at the UFC level consistently or not.