Saturday’s Fight Night card at the UFC Apex will have a starkly different atmosphere compared to last weekend’s sold-out UFC 261, although the main event could very well conclude in a similar fashion – with a huge knockout.
Light-heavyweight contenders Dominick Reyes and Jiri Prochazka headline the 12-fight card with Reyes hoping to get back into title contention and Prochazka seeking his 12th consecutive victory.
Reyes (12-2) has dropped two in a row after a controversial decision loss to Jon Jones then a knockout to current titleholder Jan Blachowicz in 2020. Reyes is the No. 3-ranked contender in the 205-pound the division. Prochazka (27-3-1) is ranked No. 5 in the division after just one Octagon appearance, which speaks to his talent and potential.
The Czech knockout artist made a statement in his UFC debut when he knocked former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir out with a right hand that makes Kamaru Usman’s KO of Jorge Masvidal look tame.
THIS is how you make a UFC debut!! @jiri_bjp is coming for a follow up performance at #UFCVegas25! pic.twitter.com/y0glivNSAJ
— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) April 29, 2021
Prochazka has won 11 fights in a row with 10 of them by KO/TKO. He has just one loss in his past 23 fights and holds a win over current Bellator MMA champ Vadim Nemkov, but does he run the risk of overlooking a desperate Reyes?
Below is a closer look at the main event, plus some prop bets to consider.
Dominick Reyes (+110) vs. Jiri Prochazka (-130)
Prop bet to consider: Prochazka by stoppage +110
Prochazka has unconventional timing and movement, which is difficult to prepare for, but he also has proven durability. It may not be wise for Prochazka to come out quite as aggressive as he did against Oezdemir, who out-landed Prochazka prior to being finished.
Reyes is the taller fighter yet Prochazka has a reach advantage so whoever manages distance more effectively will gain advantage on the feet.
With this being an opposite-stance style matchup – although Prochazka does go switch from time to time – look for Reyes to be liberal with kicks at all three levels (leg, body, head) and have his left hand cocked at all times ready to fire a counter shot or straight down the pipe.
Reyes isn’t going to be the underdog often at 205 pounds so you’re getting a tempting price at plus money even with him coming off the loss to Blachowicz.
Although Reyes is the value bet, I’ve been following Prochazka since his Rizin debut back in 2015 and I won’t be hopping off the hype train this weekend at -130.
As for how long the fight lasts, oddsmakers are expecting a finish from either fighter sometime late in the second round or early in the third with over 1.5 rounds at -150 and under 2.5 rounds at -160. Nine of Reyes’s 12 wins have come in the opening stanza, while Prochazka has only gone the distance twice in 31 professional fights.
Merab Dvalishvili (-265) vs. Cody Stamann (+210)
Prop bet to consider: Dvalishvili by decision -140
Do you enjoy takedown attempts? Do you enjoy relentless takedown attempts for 15 consecutive minutes? Yes? Then you’ll love this Dvalishvili-Stamann matchup. This is a really good fight at 135 pounds. Stamann has some power on the feet, a tight squeeze on guillotines and is a solid wrestler in his own right, but he’ll likely be on the defensive for most of this three-round bout with Dvalishvili, who is averaging a ridiculous 7.71 takedowns per 15 minutes of cage time.
An all-Canadian parlay
A pair of Canadians are feeling the pressure on the prelims with Randa Markos (+140) facing Luana Pinheiro (-170) at strawweight and KB Bhullar (+200) taking on fellow middleweight Andreas Michailidis (-250).
Markos has lost three in a row and could be fighting for her job, while Bhullar needs to prove he belongs in the UFC after an unsuccessful debut that lasted just 1:42.
Markos usually goes the distance like most fights at 115 pounds so her winning by decision at +240 is solid value for a dogged fighter on the brink of being cut. Bhullar has finished six of his eight career wins in the first round and Bhullar inside the distance is +450.
A Markos-Bhullar parlay would return +620. A Markos decision with Bhullar stoppage parlay would be a huge hit at roughly +1690.
On the other hand, Markos and Bhullar are underdogs for good reason and if you were to fade the Canadians on a Pinheiro-Michailidis outright win parlay it would pay out +122.
Here’s a look at the entire fight lineup…
MAIN CARD
– Dominick Reyes vs. Jiri Prochazka
– Cub Swanson vs. Giga Chikadze
– Ion Cutelaba vs. Dustin Jacoby
– Sean Strickland vs. Krzysztof Jotko
– Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cody Stamann
– Poliana Botelho vs. Luana Carolina
PRELIMINARY CARD
– Randa Markos vs. Luana Pinheiro
– Gabriel Benitez vs. Jonathan Pearce
– Kai Kamaka III vs. T.J. Brown
– Loma Lookboonmee vs. Sam Hughes
– Luke Sanders vs. Felipe Colares
– Andreas Michailidis vs. KB Bhullar
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