One big piece of news that emerged from the UFC’s recent International Fight Week was the organization announcing a heavyweight championship bout between current titleholder Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic set for UFC 295 on Nov. 11 at Madison Square Garden.
The UFC could’ve put Jones up against No. 1-ranked contender Sergei Pavlovich, winner of six consecutive fights by first-round knockout, but instead went with more of a legacy matchup since Jones is considered the consensus greatest fighter in mixed martial arts history and Miocic the greatest heavyweight champion under the UFC banner.
The fight most hoped to see was Jones versus Francis Ngannou, but the UFC stripped Ngannou of his title and cut ties with the popular knockout artist due to a contract dispute that resulted in the former champion joining the PFL and securing a lucrative October boxing match with lineal champion Tyson Fury.
With Ngannou out of the picture, Miocic was the next-best option from a marketing perspective and stylistically could pose some difficulties for Jones in his first heavyweight title defence.
Jones made his heavyweight debut and returned from a three-year absence in March, making quick work of Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 to win the vacant belt. Jones finished Gane with a submission in two minutes and made it look easy.
Gane is a dangerous striker but Jones exploited Gane’s relatively weak wrestling ability in that fight and avoided his opponent’s biggest strength entirely. Miocic is well-rounded with a strong wrestling base.
Jones’s biggest challenges when he ruled over the 205-pound division tended to be the taller foes who could negate his reach advantage and fend off the majority of his takedown attempts.
Miocic is also 6-foot-4 like Jones, but possesses heavier hands than any of Jones’s previous opponents and has never been taken down more than once in any of his 18 UFC appearances.
Daniel Cormier is more qualified to analyze this matchup than anyone on the planet. The former two-weight UFC champion fought Jones twice at light-heavyweight and Miocic thrice at heavyweight; all were title bouts.
“When I watched Jones in that fight against Ciryl, he didn’t look as good as he usually does, he wasn’t as fast, but in this matchup he’s going to have to be,” Cormier said on his YouTube channel after the UFC 295 bout was announced. “Can Miocic close the distance on Jon Jones? Can he get within the range he needs to get within to try and impose himself on Jones?”
Jones has out-struck all but one of his opponents during his UFC career. That was in his final 205-pound fight against Dominick Reyes in 2020 when he won a narrow decision many felt should’ve actually gone to Reyes, who defended seven of Jones’s nine takedown attempts that night.
Miocic lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute compared to Jones landing 4.29 significant strikes per minute, however, Jones only absorbs 2.22 per minute and has 64 per cent defence compared to Miocic eating 3.82 per minute at 54 per cent defence.
If Miocic can keep the fight upright he’ll stand a chance against Jones, the superior MMA wrestler.
“Styles make matchups and we have two great styles to make electricity, a lot of fireworks,” Miocic told ESPN’s Megan Olivi. “I think it’s going to be an absolutely amazing fight. I want to come out on top and show a lot of people that I deserve to be the heavyweight champ. … I think if I (listen to my coaches and) just do everything I’m supposed to I’ll be fine.”
Miocic, despite being the seasoned heavyweight, will be the underdog in this matchup. The early betting odds have Jones listed as a huge favourite (-350 at both DraftKings and Bet365) and momentum is clearly a contributing factor.
Jones turns 36 later this month and Miocic will be 41 in August. Jones fought earlier this year and easily dismantled a quality opponent.
Miocic, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since his devastating knockout loss to Ngannou at UFC 260 in March of 2021. By the time UFC 295 rolls around it’ll have been more than 950 days since he last competed, and the last time we saw Miocic in the Octagon it went as poorly as it could’ve gone.
“I think Miocic needs to be in shape, he needs to be fast, and he needs to be present if he wants to capture the heavyweight championship of the world back,” Cormier added. “This fight will be determined very early, at least in my opinion, because we will know from the very start of the fight whether or not we are seeing the Stipe Miocic from before or if we’re seeing a slowed-down version of the former champion.
“We’ll know that very quick because what we already know is that we do get a little bit of a slower version of Jon Jones. He is a little bit different than he was when he was a light-heavyweight. No one could watch that fight with Ciryl and think any different because the left hand that he threw that ultimately led to the takedown was a lot slower. He even admits it. He goes: ‘I gained 30 pounds, of course I’m going to be slower.’ But if Miocic is fast, if Miocic with his boxing background, Golden Gloves, is still fast, that could give Jones problems.”
Cormier continued: “The one thing that I learned in the fights with Jones and I was that he’s very good with his timing. He’s very good at finding his spots, but nothing is overly fast or overly quick. His punches, his kicks are fast, his shots aren’t as fast but he’s got great timing and the ability to really pick and find those moments that he can land. But Miocic is fast. You’ll be fighting Stipe, he’ll throw something and he’ll land and you’re like ‘How did he get to me?’ He is fast, and if he’s still fast, he can get the job done. But if he’s slowed down, he’s almost 41 years old I think, if he’s slowed down even a little bit it could be a problem.”
Jones has a professional record of 27-1 with one no-contest. His loss was a disqualification in a fight he dominated and finished his opponent, and his no-contest was originally a stoppage win that was overturned when he tested positive for a banned substance.
Although he has not been a clean athlete for the entirety of his career and his record is tainted, for all intents and purposes Jones is 29-0 and can get to 30-0 with a win over Miocic… fittingly enough at an event that’ll coincide with the UFC’s 30-year anniversary.
Can Miocic prevent those stars from aligning and ride off into the sunset following the biggest win of his career? We’ll have to wait until November to find out.