Playing Prognosticator: Du Plessis vs. Strickland rematch likely after UFC 305

What began with a skirmish in the crowd at UFC 296 in Las Vegas and continued in the Octagon at UFC 297 in Toronto appears destined to continue at some point later this year after Dricus Du Plessis successfully defended his middleweight title against Israel Adesanya in the main event of UFC 305.

The 30-year-old South African champion deployed his usual uncommon approach against Adesanya, working in off-rhythm bursts of pressure and offence despite looking fatigued on the way to wearing down and ultimately finishing “The Last Stylebender.” 

It was another impressive showing from Du Plessis, who showcased his ability to shift momentum in a flash by finishing the contest in the fourth after Adesanya clearly got the better of things in the third.

He barrelled forward behind looping hooks that found the target and put the former champion on all-fours on the canvas, where a momentary pause was all the opportunity Du Plessis needed to climb on Adesanya’s back, lace up a rear-naked choke, and draw out the tap.

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The victory not only solidified the Team CIT representative’s place atop the division while moving him to 8-0 in the Octagon and extending his overall winning streak to double digits, but it also set up a rematch with Sean Strickland, the man he bested for the title in January.

Prior to the event, UFC CEO Dana White confirmed that Strickland was next in line to face the winner, meaning a championship rematch was guaranteed either way, as the polarizing American had first claimed the title by upsetting Adesanya last September. Du Plessis winning sets up the more intriguing of the two sequels, as he and Strickland battled tooth-and-nail at the start of the year, with Du Plessis landing on the happy side of a split decision verdict and walking away as the new champion.

Strickland has since rebounded with a victory over Paulo Costa at UFC 302 in June, winning by split decision in a fight that had no business being scored a split decision, as most observers had the former champion winning handily.

The rematch, which is likely to take place before the year is out, should once again be captivating as there are clear areas where each can improve from their initial encounter and their skill sets mesh in a way that feels guaranteed to produce a competitive, engaging fight no matter how long it goes or who emerges victorious.

As discussed prior to UFC 305, the middleweight division is going to be front-and-center over the next several months, with a number of key fights on the schedule. It will be interesting to see how those contests play out and the reverberations they send throughout the divisional ranks before Du Plessis and Strickland run it back, especially because the potential of a trilogy fight between the two in 2025 isn’t difficult to envision.

Their first meeting was ultra-close and if Strickland draws level in the rematch, a third bout between the championship rivals is all but assured of happening.

Du Plessis’s win at UFC 305 was the first time in five middleweight title fights that the champion has retained, and if he can do so again whenever he and Strickland face off for a second time, a new era will indeed dawn in the 185-pound ranks.

And if he can’t, at least we’ll be assured of another entertaining championship while we wait for things to clear up and start moving forward.

MATCHUPS TO MAKE FOR ADDITIONAL UFC 305 WINNERS

Kai Kara-France registered an emotional first-round stoppage win over recent title challenger Steve Erceg in the co-main event to thrust himself right back into the thick of the title conversation in the flyweight division. You could throw him into a championship bout with Alexandre Pantoja, who is yet to have his next matchup announced, but a more likely scenario is for the 31-year-old New Zealander to run it back with Amir Albazi in another five-round fight to determine which one stays in the queue to challenge for championship gold in 2025.

Dan Hooker told Daniel Cormier, “I want it all, Bubba!” following his split decision win over Mateusz Gamrot in UFC 305’s Fight of the Night, and “The Hangman” should be assured of something good after registering his third straight win. How about a five-round feature bout with Justin Gaethje on the main card of UFC 309 in New York City or UFC 310 at the start of December in Las Vegas?

Jairzinho Rozenstruik avoided getting into a slugfest with Tai Tuivasa and as a result, picked up his second win of the year, marking the first time he’s won consecutive contests inside the Octagon since earning four straight wins in his rookie campaign back in 2019. Entrenched in the Top 15, a Fight Night main event against the winner of the impending clash between Derrick Lewis and Alexandr Romanov in Edmonton feels like an obvious next step.

Carlos Prates posted his third straight stoppage win, becoming the first person to finish Li Jingliang with strikes. “The Nightmare” called for a matchup with Khaos Williams next and who am I to argue against two heavy hitters sharing the Octagon in a matchup that is guaranteed to be fireworks later this year?

If Valter Walker wants to keep fighting members of the Tafa family, the UFC should let him keep fighting members of the Tafa family. Justin Tafa may be coming off a loss, but he doesn’t have a fight booked and coming to avenge his younger brother feels like the kind of assignment he would surely be up for in the not too distant future.

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Sign me up for Ricardo Ramos versus Youssef Zalal in a battle of featherweights that earned wins on back-to-back cards that is sure to be electric for as long as it lasts.

Casey O’Neill got things moving in the right direction again over the weekend, out-hustling Luana Santos. Now that she’s solidified her place in the Top 15, how about a matchup with Karine Silva, who is 4-0 in the UFC, positioned a couple spot ahead of her in the rankings, and coming off a win over the last person to beat O’Neill, Ariane da Silva (nee Lipski) back in April?

Tom Nolan registered his second straight win with a unanimous decision victory over Alex Reyes. “Big Train” is still green, so a matchup with recent winner Kaue Fernandes feels like a reasonable step forward.

After battering Herbert Burns to the point that he was unable to get up off the mat, Jack Jenkins announced that he used to live in Edmonton, wants to fight there on Nov. 2, and would like it to be against Gavin Tucker, whom he was originally scheduled to face on Saturday.

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All of that sounds great save for the inclusion of Tucker, who hasn’t fought in over a year, has suffered back-to-back first-round stoppage losses, earned his last at UFC 256 at the end of 2020 and may have PTSD from the last time he competed in Edmonton against Ricky Glenn all the way back at UFC 215. Instead, let’s do Jenkins and Hyder Amil, who earned his second win of 2023 just a couple weeks back, is unbeaten in 10 pro fights, and at 34 years old, needs to step on the gas a little if he’s hoping to make a push towards the rankings in the 145-pound ranks.

Song Kenan cemented his standing as a tough out in the middle of the welterweight division win his win over Rick Glenn. He’s hoping to compete in November when the UFC returns to Macau for the first time in a decade, where a pairing with Trey Waters would serve as a good test for the 9-1 welterweight prospect who has earned victories in each of his first two UFC appearances.

After choking out Stewart Nicoll in the opener to run his winning streak to three, Jesus Aguilar announced that he didn’t want to fight again until March, which is just a weird move when you’re coming off a first-round submission win. Too much will change between now and then in the flyweight division for me to offer up a potential pairing, so I’ll just say, “Enjoy your holidays” to Aguilar, and thanks for reading to all of you that got this far.

See you after UFC 306!