Playing Prognosticator: Would UFC go off the board for Topuria’s first title defence?

The king is dead, long live the king!

A new dawn has risen in the UFC featherweight division, as Ilia Topuria made good on his promise to unseat Alexander Volkanovski and claim championship gold in the main event of UFC 298.

The undefeated fighter of Georgian roots and Spanish residency patiently waited for an opportunity to present itself against the long-reigning Australian, and when a skirmish ensued along the fence in the middle of the second round, “El Matador” drove home a right hand that twisted Volkanovski’s jaw and ended the fight in a flash, ushering in a new era in the 145-pound weight class.

Now it’s time to try to chart a path forward for the new champ, the fallen legend, and a handful of other talents that impressed in Ahaheim over the weekend.

Ilia Topuria and Alexander Volkanovski

Let’s get the obvious bit out of the way first: the new featherweight ruler will not be facing Conor McGregor.

Topuria called out the Irish superstar for a meeting in Spain, but “The Notorious” one hasn’t fought at featherweight since UFC 194, hasn’t fought at all since July 2021, and presumably has a fight against Michael Chandler on the horizon, though nothing official has been announced.

Traditionally, when a tenured champion like Volkanovski is dethroned, they’re granted an immediate rematch, but things feel a little more complicated this time around.

The 35-year-old Australian has now been knocked out twice in five months and has lost three of his last four. While he’s an all-time great, and two of those losses came up a division to current pound-for-pound No. 1 Islam Makhachev, hustling him back into the fray in the next six to nine months feels too hasty given all that has transpired. Volkanovski immediately mentioned a rematch, but the smarter course of action might be to take a beat, let Topuria get one in against someone else, and try to get even after that instead.

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So who should Topuria face?

If the UFC does intend to showcase its new, undefeated champion in Spain, it would be the perfect opportunity to give Movsar Evloev a title shot.

Confused? Hear me out.

Evloev is also undefeated, the two were supposed to face off a couple years back, and if the UFC does a pay-per-view at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, it won’t matter who Topuria is facing. It will be a sellout no matter what, and everything would and should be focused on the burgeoning superstar.

The 30-year-old Russian is 8-0 in the UFC and the only contender in the top five yet to fight for the title. Volkanovski needs a minute, Max Holloway is off challenging for BMF status, and the winner of next week’s clash between Yair Rodríguez and Brian Ortega won’t likely have done enough to merit a championship opportunity next.

Evloev’s in the right place, at the right time, with a strong enough record to make this work, and should be rewarded for his winning streak that includes victories over Dan Ige, Diego Lopes and most recently Arnold Allen at UFC 297 last month.

Topuria hadn’t beaten any of the high-profile names at the top of the division before getting his shot on Saturday night and things worked out okay. Give Evloev the same opportunity and see what happens.

Robert Whittaker

“The Reaper” got back into the win column with another gritty effort against Paulo Costa, eating a flush spinning heel kick late in the opening stanza before rallying behind a high output approach to earn the victory.

Whittaker remains a fixture near the top of the middleweight division, but is currently outside of the title picture, having been stopped by new champ Dricus Du Plessis last summer and fallen to Israel Adesanya twice. Thankfully for the Australian veteran, he’s comfortable being the guy that everyone must face in order to establish their championship bona fides because a return to that role is likely in his future.

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Nassourdine Imavov posted a unanimous decision win over Roman Dolidze at the start of the month and should be an obvious candidate to receive a step up to face “Bobby Knuckles” at some point in the spring or summer, especially given that they’re on a comparable timeline at the moment. Another potential option is Brendan Allen, who has won six straight and is expected to headline opposite Marvin Vettori on April 6 in Las Vegas.

Should the Louisiana native get through that one — which is no easy task — a Fight Night main event against Whittaker or a place across the cage from him in Australia later in the year would make a great deal of sense.

Ian Machado Garry

The Irish welterweight maintained his unblemished record with a good, but not great performance against Geoff Neal over the weekend, edging out the Fortis MMA man on the cards in a bout that has left many wanting more from “The Future.”

Machado Garry said going into the bout that he wanted Colby Covington next and declared as much again post-fight in the Octagon, and that feels like a perfectly cromulent matchup to make.

Let’s see how the unbeaten 26-year-old handles himself against a pressure fighter like Covington, someone that could, in theory, wrestle him to the canvas and suffocate him with pressure. It’s the kind of test Machado Garry is going to need to pass to keep rising up the rankings, and given the current landscape of the division, it makes a lot of sense.

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Merab Dvallishvili

His next fight has to be for the title. Period.

“The Machine” revved up into his fight with Henry Cejudo at UFC 298, turning a close fight through the first five minutes into a blowout where he showcased his unrelenting pace, his trademark wrestling, and his awkwardly engaging personality, all while collecting a 10th consecutive victory inside the Octagon.

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In all honesty, Dvalishvili should have been fighting for the title last year after besting Petr Yan, and maybe could have garnered a shot after shutting out Jose Aldo before that, but his best friend and training partner Aljamain Sterling had the belt, and then O’Malley hand-picked Vera as his first challenger after dethroning Sterling, leaving Dvalishvili to deal with Cejudo. Now that he’s successfully navigate that pairing, all that’s left for him to do is fight for the title.

While there were extenuating circumstances that delayed Dvalishvili’s championship opportunity, he’s one of a couple contenders that have amassed exceptional winning streaks without getting the chance to fight for gold, and the longer they’re delayed, the more it just mucks things up.

Belal Muhammad should be next to fight for the welterweight title, and it’s why I’m advocating for Topuria to face Evloev: winning eight, nine, 10 straight fights in the UFC is ridiculously difficult, especially as you keep steadily moving forward in a division.

Constantly insisting these competitors do more while others with bigger names, but lesser cases cut the line creates chaos within the weight classes and has mostly just delayed the inevitable.

Reward lengthy winning streaks, even if it’s just so you can say, “Well, they got their shot,” and move on to someone else. But chances are, some of those fights will turn out to be bangers, and some of those challengers will further validate their standing as elite talents when they’re finally given the chance to compete for championship gold.