Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event from the Apex in Las Vegas is pulling double duty. Not only is it headlined by an important bout in the middleweight division, it serves as the finale for The Ultimate Fighter: Team Grasso vs. Team Shevchenko (aka TUF 32).
Jared Cannonier will attempt to maintain his spot as the No. 5-ranked contender at 185 pounds when he faces streaking contender Caio Borralho in the main event.
The six-fight main card also features Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin in the TUF 32 middleweight tournament final, Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos in the featherweight final, plus touted 16-0 Michael Morales putting his unbeaten record on the line against UFC wins and appearances leader Neil Magny.
All 24 fighters scheduled to compete Saturday successfully made weight Friday at the official weigh-ins.
Below are the full predictions and the projected bout order for UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho.
MAIN CARD
— Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho (five rounds)
— Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
— Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin (TUF 32 middleweight final)
— Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos (TUF 32 featherweight final)
— Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
— Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall
— Zachary Reese vs. José Medina
— Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop
— Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nunes
— Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher
— Wang Cong vs. Victoria Leonardo
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert does not go the distance -450 (DraftKings
If there is one asset that both Shahbazyan and Meerschaert have in common, it is their propensity to hunt for finishes. Meerschaert is a prolific finisher with his submission skills and Shahbazyan’s power is his greatest asset. I don’t foresee this one hitting the scorecards.
Dan: Hill vs Ricci over 1.5 Rounds -800 (BetWay)
Two experienced fighters with mutual respect for each other’s ability. I think this one goes the distance…but will stay super safe with over 1.5 rounds on this parlay after getting my hand caught in the cookie jar with last week’s overly ambitious pick.
Mike: Zach Reese to win outright -549 (Betway)
Reese is coming off a 20-second knockout of Julian Marquez in June and he’s a massive favourite for a reason against Medina who does not have a UFC-calibre win to his name.
Three-headed Parlay Odds: -160 (to win $60.55)
2024 Record: 13-15 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$282.86
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Angela Hill -110 (DraftKings)
Hill is a small favourite in most spots against Tabatha Ricci and I think she wins this fight more often than not. Hill’s striking game is far more advanced and she has shown a much stronger ground game in her recent fights.
Dan: Robert Valentin -163 (BetWay)
Not only has Valentin been the most entertaining fighter on TUF 32 but he looks to be fundamentally sound as well. He secured quick victories by KO and submission on the show and seems to be on the ascension at just the right time. Yes, it is a small sample size for both Loder and Valentin…but given the -200 ceiling for this selection, I think it’s a reasonable play. Seems like less of a coin toss than the other small favourites on the card.
Mike: Nathan Fletcher -155 (DraftKings)
The training partner of Paddy Pimblett gave a good account of himself on TUF 32 despite being eliminated in the opening round. Fletcher’s matchup with Zygimantas Ramaska should be a fan-friendly one and I see his advantage on the ground ultimately being the difference.
Aaron’s favourite record: 16-12
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$139.72
Dan’s favourite record: 19-9
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$316.09
Mike’s favourite record: 17-11
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$49.88
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Kaan Ofli +135 (BetOnline)
Having watched all of this past season of The Ultimate Fighter, I believe that the wrong fighter is favoured in the featherweight finale. Ofli is the more well-rounded fighter with better finishing instincts and while I think he will be at something of a size and power disadvantage, I see him having more ways to win this fight.
Dan: Neil Magny +600 (BetMGM)
I’m swinging for the fences here. I don’t know how Neil Magny is going to do it, but he will find a way to get his hand raised. The gatekeeper of the Welterweight Division has forced experts to rip up bet slips time and time again. Morales is a promising prospect and will remain one regardless of the outcome here. But these odds on Magny are simply too good to be overlooked.
Mike: James Llontop +185 (BetMGM)
Viacheslav Borshchev is dangerous and exciting on the feet and finally faces a strike-first opponent, however he does not have a well-rounded MMA skill set and before being submitted by Chase Hooper in his last time out, Borshchev got dropped on the feet. While Llontop is nowhere the grappler Hooper is, this fight should be lined closer to a pick’em in my mind so taking the 25-year-old Llontop at these odds is decent value here.
Aaron’s underdog record: 10-18
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$330
Dan’s underdog record: 9-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$767
Mike’s underdog record: 12-16
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$105
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Neil Magny +600 (BetOnline)
Morales is an excellent prospect, but Magny just finds ways to win close fights and at +600, I simply cannot leave that price on the table. I think that Morales still has room for growth and at his young age, this is the sort of spot where Magny has brought prospects back down to earth.
Dan: Meerschaert by submission +510 (BetRivers)
If GM3 is able to get his hand raised here, history tells us that there is a good chance it happens by submission. Meerschaert has 10 wins by submission in his UFC career and could move into a tie for 3rd all-time with Demain Maia on Saturday Night. History also tells us that Edmen Shahbazyan has yet to lose by submission…which is why I’m filing this pick under the dart throw category.
Mike: Jared Cannonier to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1,2 or 3 +650 (FanDuel)
Picking a 40-year-old to beat a member of the Fighting Nerds in 2024 is not advisable, but since we’re tossing darts here I expect Cannonier to come out aggressive based on how his last fight ended in controversy. Borralho, a southpaw, leaves his chin high at times and Cannonier has the skills and power to capitalize…if he can keep the action on the feet. If Cannonier does pull off the upset, I see this as his most likely method.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-23-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Dan’s dart throw record: 2-26
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,360
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-22-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,650
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)