Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
It has been more than five years since the UFC lasted hosted an event in Edmonton, but the organization returns to the Alberta capital this weekend with a 14-fight card featuring multiple former world champions, fan favourites and some of the best fighters coming out of Canada.
Saturday’s Fight Night is headlined by former men’s flyweight champion Brandon Moreno, one of the most accomplished 125-pound competitors in UFC history who’s steadily climbing the division’s all-time rankings in several statistical categories such as appearances, wins, in-cage fight time, significant strikes landed, finishes, bonuses and most other major categories.
His opponent, Amir Albazi, is 5-0 in the UFC and looking to establish himself as a legitimate threat to the top of the division. A win over Moreno would do just that.
Flyweight action is also in the co-main event spotlight when Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield compete in a bout scheduled as a five-rounder. This matchup was originally announced as the main event so this 125-pound matchup is a co-main event in the truest sense.
This is the 16th event in UFC history at which at least seven Canadian fighters were scheduled to compete.
Below are the complete predictions for UFC Edmonton.
MAIN CARD
— Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
— Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas
— Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
— Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
— Marc-André Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
— Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
— Ariane Da Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
— Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
— Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
— Alexander Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
— Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
— Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson
— Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrovic
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Lewis vs. Diniz does not go the distance -525
With two potent heavyweight strikers like Lewis and Diniz, I expect that we see a finish at some point in this fight. Lewis rarely has fights that go the distance when he is matched with a fellow striker and with Diniz having a professional kickboxing background, I think we will see a knockout.
Dan: Namajunas vs. Blanchfield starts Round 5 -357
Are we able to have a Bye Week on this one? For the first time since we began this column, I honestly believe there are no locks. But what fun would that be?!? I think there is a reasonable chance Namajunas vs Blanchfield starts Round 5. But either competitor is more than capable of ending this early. I don’t love this pick.
Mike: Youssef Zalal to win outright -333
Perhaps it’s silly of me to do so, but I still view Jack Shore as a bantamweight and think Youssef Zalal’s size, in addition to his growing skill set, will give the Welshman real trouble in this featherweight prelim. “Mikey The Parlay Saboteur” made reappeared a couple times in October but at the risk of blowing a third consecutive parlay, I’m going with Zalal to get his hand raised a third consecutive time since he returned to the UFC.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -102 (to win: $98.17)
2024 Record: 19-17 (current streak: L2)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$45.54
FAVOURITE
Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)
Aaron: Mike Malott wins inside the distance -125
While Trevin Giles is a skilled veteran, all six of his professional losses have come inside the distance and that doesn’t bode well for him against a potent finisher like Malott, whose 10 wins have all happened inside the distance. I expect that Malott will find a finish at some stage of the fight.
Dan: Brandon Moreno -175
Amir Albazi says he is back at his best and that appears to be the case. But to come back from a 16-month layoff and step into a five-round fight with a wily veteran like Moreno raises too many flags for me. Moreno has been to the top of this division and is determined to get back there again. I expect him to find a way to get his hand raised on Saturday in a close fight.
Mike: Caio Machado -150
The new-look Caio Machado will aim to establish himself as a new name to watch at 205 pounds after the former heavyweight trimmed down since his last fight. The Brazilian who trains in Canada has a nice opportunity against Brendson Ribeiro who has been finished by lesser competition in the past.
Aaron’s favourite record: 20-16
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$313.37
Dan’s favourite record: 26-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$609.27
Mike’s favourite record: 20-15-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$189.39
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Derrick Lewis +135
Lewis rarely loses fights against heavyweights ranked outside of the top 10, let alone unproven heavyweights that are completely unranked. If Lewis is able to take Diniz down at any stage of the fight, I expect him to reign down strikes and find the finish. I am surprised that he is the underdog in this spot.
Dan: Rose Namajunas +115
I like this pick based on recent form and the Fiorot factor. While Fiorot clearly plays no part when the cage door shuts on Saturday, I think there may be some clues as to how this one plays out based on their previous matchups with “The Beast.” Namajunas already has two wins in 2024 following her loss to Fiorot. While Blanchfield is coming off a lackluster five-round loss to the French flyweight. I think Namajunas is the more confident fighter at the moment and is more than capable of upsetting the odds here.
Mike: Rose Namajunas +115
There are a few matchups on this card where the listed underdog is the fighter I believe should be favoured. Namajunas is one of them. While I’m also high on Blanchfield, Namajunas has more tools at her disposal to use over the course of five rounds.
Aaron’s underdog record: 12-24
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$655
Dan’s underdog record: 10-26
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,347
Mike’s underdog record: 14-22
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$159.76
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Jasmine Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO +750
Jasudavicius is yet to find a KO/TKO win in the UFC, but she is more than capable of it with her pressure on the feet and relentlessness on the ground. Her opponent, Da Silva, has four UFC losses and three of them have been by TKO. Jasudavicius has what it takes to win by this method and there is great value if she does so.
Dan: Moreno by Submission +800
Before you burst out laughing, keep in mind Moreno does have 3 submission wins in his UFC career and plenty of them prior to joining the promotion in 2016. So there is reason to believe this could be a path to victory if the opportunity presents itself. Albazi hasn’t been submitted before so that’s a pretty big “IF” based on MMA evidence. But at +800 and some potential octagon rust on Albazi, it’s a worthwhile wager.
Mike: Aiemann Zahabi by KO/TKO/DQ +900
Pedro Munhoz has never been finished in his career. Aiemann Zahabi is perpetually underrated and is the listed favourite in this matchups despite their strength of schedules being completely calibres. I think there will be moments where these two exchange power shots and what and accomplishment it would be to get a win over s fighter like Munhoz, especially if it’s inside the distance.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-28-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,050
Dan’s dart throw record: 4-32
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$50
Mike’s dart throw record: 6-29-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,850
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)