Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Saturday’s Fight Night card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas is headlined by Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira with both middleweight contenders riding lengthy winning streaks.
Hernandez seeking his sixth consecutive win, while Pereira looks to extend his streak to nine overall and four in a row since moving back up to 185 pounds.
The main card also features a co-main event between action bantamweights Rob Font and Kyler Phillips, plus a fan-friendly flyweight scrap between Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji.
Canadian Brad Katona hopes to become the first fighter to defeat touted Brazilian Jean Matsumoto in a featured preliminary bout.
Our trio of prognosticators extended their parlay streak to six consecutive events and not one but two of their longshot dart throws hit the target at last week’s Fight Night card.
All fighters scheduled to compete on the card made weight Friday save for Joselyne Edwards, who missed the women’s bantamweight non-title limit by three pounds ahead of her bout with Tamires Vidal. This is third time Edwards has missed weight in the past two years.
The previous two times she missed weight she ended up winning both bouts both by split decision. It was not immediately clear whether her matchup with Vidal would be cancelled or whether it would proceed at a catchweight with Edwards being fined a percentage of her purse.
Complete bout order and predictions for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira below:
MAIN CARD
— Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira
— Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips
— Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
— Jake Hadley vs. Cameron Smotherman
— Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev
— Brad Katona vs. Jean Matsumoto
— Joselyne Edwards vs. Tamires Vidal
— Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed
— Melissa Martinez vs. Alice Ardelean
— Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Hernandez vs. Pereira does not go the distance -700
Both Hernandez and Pereira are potent finishers and if this fight somehow enters the championship rounds, I expect that one of them runs out of gas at some point. I am nearly certain that this fight will have a finish and the odds agree.
Dan: Robelis Despaigne to win outright -345
I expect Despaigne to bounce back with a statement victory on Saturday. The Taekwondo specialist was reminded by Waldo Cortes-Acosta that relying on one discipline isn’t going to cut it in the UFC. Assuming the Cuban KO artist has worked on his takedown defence, this should be among the safest bets on the card. Austen Lane has been knocked out in his previous two bouts and it’s difficult to see any other outcome here.
Mike: Jake Hadley to win outright -500
Cameron Smothermann is a dangerous addition to the bantamweight division but he’s making his UFC debut under unfavourable conditions, taking a tough matchup against a well-rounded, experienced opponent on less than a week’s notice. Hadley looked great UFC 304 win over Caolan Loughran and he had a full training camp for Saturday, initially preparing for Brady Hiestand before the late opponent switch this week.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -130 (to win: $76.90)
2024 Record: 19-15 (current streak: W6)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$154.46
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Font vs. Phillips goes the distance -192
I expect that Font and Phillips engage in a chess match over the course of three rounds. For Phillips, five of his seven UFC fights have gone the distance and eight of Font’s past 10 have also reached the scorecards. This should be a tactical delight for as long as it lasts and for the sake of this article, hopefully it lasts for 15 minutes.
Dan: Asu Almabayev -200
It’s been two defeats in a row now for Nicolau and Almabayev seems to be trending upwards in the flyweight division. For these reasons, not to mention his elite wrestling, I think Almabayev gets his arm raised yet again on Saturday night.
Mike: Elise Reed -185
We recently saw a former Invicta champion retire following a close decision loss when Carla Esparza hung up her gloves at UFC 307, and I can envision the same happening with 41-year-old Jessica Penne. Reed has alternated wins and losses throughout her UFC career and based on that pattern she’s also due for a win.
Aaron’s favourite record: 18-16
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$418.48
Dan’s favourite record: 24-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$498.66
Mike’s favourite record: 19-14-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$143.44
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Matheus Nicolau +170
Asu Almabaev looks like a sharp prospect, but Nicolau has mostly lost to top competition, which most recently includes Alex Perez and Brandon Royval. At age 31, Nicolau is in his prime and is the type of fighter who finds ways to get it done. Almabaev has been mostly takedown dependent and Nicolau has an extremely stingy 93 per cent takedown defence.
Dan: Michel Pereira +110
Was tempted to go with Canadian Brad Katona here…but if Michel Pereira can dictate the pace in the main event against Anthony Hernandez, I think he upsets the odds here. Hernandez will need to close the distance to defeat Pereira here and this bout could be won and lost based on his ability to do that. Worth leaning the underdog in this one.
Mike: Matheus Nicolau +170
Nicolau’s strength of scheduled is vastly superior to Almabaev’s. Between that and the fact Nicolau has been finished in two straight, we’re getting a nice price on the Brazilian who has more tools in his MMA toolkit.
Aaron’s underdog record: 12-22
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$455
Dan’s underdog record: 10-24
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,147
Mike’s underdog record: 14-20
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$40.24
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Rob Font wins by decision +700
If Font and Phillips go to a decision, I can certainly see a scenario where Font emerges the victor. Both of these fighters boast a very high level of output and if this fight stays on the feet, I can see 200 or more combined significant strikes landing. That scenario would be a dream for Rob Font, who loves to go toe to toe with his opponents.
Dan: Charles Johnson by TKO/KO +800
“InnerG” raised a few eyebrows when he unceremoniously knocked out Joshua Van in Denver a few months ago. Johnson has three wins already in 2024 and is more than capable of turning this unlikely outcome into reality. Yes, Sumudaerji has not been knocked out in the UFC…but neither had Van until he came up against Johnson. Worth a dart throw here.
Mike: Anthony Hernandez to win in Round 3 +800
If you’re on the Hernandez side I’d be worried about Pereira hurting him to the body, especially early in the fight, but the longer this fight goes the more I can imagine Hernandez wearing down his opponent until he eventually takes his back and/or locks in some type of choke. Not taking the third-round sub specifically because I’ll leave the door open for a possible TKO or for any funny business like a DQ etc..
Aaron’s dart throw record: 6-27-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$450
Dan’s dart throw record: 4-30
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$150
Mike’s dart throw record: 6-27-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,050
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)