Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Heavyweights Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev lead the way this weekend as the UFC returns to the APEX for a Saturday afternoon card featuring five undefeated fighters and other top prospects looking to rise up the rankings with statement wins.
All 22 fighters scheduled to compete successfully made weight Friday. Gaziev, Muhammad Mokaev, Umar Nurmagomedov, Vitor Petrino and Javid Basharat all look to remain undefeated in pro MMA.
Complete UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
— Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
— Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev
— Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
— Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett
— Vinicius Oliveira vs. Bernardo Sopaj
— Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat
— Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro
— AJ Cunningham vs. L’udovit Klein
— Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Loik Radzhabov
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.” The lads have hit on two consecutive parlays and hope to get within one win of .500.
Aaron: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Under 3.5 Rounds -700 (Bovada)
I could have gone full fight does not go the distance, but we need some semblance of value with this parlay, so I’m going to still fearlessly predict that this fight does not make it halfway through the fourth round. I would be very surprised if it did.
Dan: Christian Leroy Duncan to win outright -290 (FanDuel)
I don’t see scenario where Duncan doesn’t get his hand raised at the end of this one. Claudio Ribeiro has lost two of his three UFC bouts. Both losses were by KO. CLD packs plenty of power and his only loss in UFC came by decision against the educated feet of Armen Petrosyan. I expect him to win inside the distance, but if it goes to scorecards his tremendous conditioning will allow him to do more to earn the necessary points in deep waters.
Mike: Muhammad Mokaev by submission or decision -275 (Bet365)
Not that there needed to be, but now that there seems to be some added incentive for Mokaev to show out and possibly skip the line at 125 pounds. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja is eyeballing him as a potential next opponent if he can beat Alex Perez. I’ve always enjoyed watching Perez fight and legitimately believed he was a live dog when he fought for the title back in 2020, however he’s possibly in for a rude awakening when he returns to the cage for the just second time since he was the top challenger. Despite Perez’s solid grappling, I see Mokaev outclassing most fighters in the division in those areas and that’s what will lead to him getting to 6-0 in the UFC.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +110 (to win $110)
2024 Record: 2-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$219.73
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? On cards such as Saturday’s with limited options in this range, a modifier may be added.
Aaron: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by TKO/KO or Submission -165 (DraftKings)
This is a chalky card, so I am going to take the chalkiest fighter on the card and define his winning conditions. If Nurmagomedov is as good as everyone says he is (and I believe that to be the case), he should be able to finish Bekzat Almakhan, who despite his solid record and strength of schedule, is still a UFC newcomer taking his fight on relatively short notice.
Dan: Shamil Gaziev -160 (BetWay)
I sat cageside at UFC 296 and witnessed Shamil Gaziev’s explosive power first hand. Not only did he KO Martin Buday early in Round 2, he also forced me to rip up a ticket very early in the afternoon. Fool me once Shamil! Rozenstruik’s loss to Jailton Almeida exposed significant holes in his grappling game. Both Gaziev and Rozenstruik have plenty of power but grappling will inevitably come into play here and I expect the odds-on favourite to live up to the billing.
Mike: Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission -120 (DraftKings)
With only three moneyline favourites shorter than -200, I love the value on Petrino inside the distance. He is a more patient fighter than Tyson Pedro who is a dangerous finisher early. I really like Petrino’s power and also wouldn’t be surprised is we see him turn to his grappling if the fight goes longer than one round.
Aaron’s favourite record: 4-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $76.95
Dan’s favourite record: 5-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $216.80
Mike’s favourite record: 3-3
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$101.46
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Jairzinho Rozenstruik +145 (Bovada)
Rozenstruik has a tough opponent in Gaziev, but he has fought a much stronger level of competition and it is also important to note that Gaziev’s professional career started in 2020. While Rozenstruik is older, he is not much older and Gaziev is not some sort of super prospect. I feel that Rozenstruik has solid value as the number continues to climb for Gaziev.
Dan: Tyson Pedro +260 (Caesars)
Some interesting odds heading into Fight Night and there are certainly some nice payouts on the horizon. Victor Petrino is unbeaten but Tyson Pedro has been in some wars inside the Octagon. Both are excellent strikers and could stand and trade for most of this bout. If this doesn’t happen, and both fighters get tied up, Pedro should be the most comfortable of the two competitors. So the way I see it, Pedro has more than a 50/50 shot of getting his hand raised.
Mike: Bernardo Sopaj +115 (Bodog)
The 23-year-old is making his UFC debut on super short notice to fight Vinicius Oliveira so it’s not ideal circumstances but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Sopaj on the regional circuits. He is aggressive and hits hard for a bantamweight. This one should be fun while it lasts.
Aaron’s underdog record: 2-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$115
Dan’s underdog record: 1-5
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$395
Mike’s underdog record: 3-3
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $52
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Nurmagomedov wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2 +550 (FanDuel)
Nurmagomedov let his hands go against Raoni Barcelos in his last fight and scored a Round 1 TKO against a savvy veteran who had never lost by that method previously. The one flag that I have seen regarding his opponent Almakhan is that he has gotten caught before and I believe that Nurmagomedov will look to make a statement with his hands.
Dan: Aiemann Zahabi to win outright +600 (Caesars)
“Odds don’t matter. The people betting don’t know much about fighting anyway” That was Aiemann Zahabi responding to odds that list him as the extreme underdog on Saturday. I was initially going to take him as my hungriest underdog pick, but moved it to dart throw when I saw the wacky odds. Pounce on this before everyone else does and the lines move. This will be a much closer fight than the odds state. I see no MMA evidence to suggest that Javid Basharat runs through Zahabi. Both fighters are very strategic in their approach, so don’t be surprised if this one goes to scorecards where the odds no longer matter, only the three judges do.
Mike: Steve Erceg by second-round submission (+1100 FanDuel)
Neaerly went with Erceg as my lock this week and I think the Aussie can get a finish over Schnell who is always willing to go out on his shield. We haven’t seen Erceg get a sub in the UFC yet but I think it’s a real possibility and the value on that prop appears once the fight gets past five minutes.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-5-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$500
Dan’s dart throw record: 0-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$500
Mike’s dart throw record: 2-3-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $1,000
(Listed betting odds as of Thursday/Friday and subject to change prior to fights)