Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Mixed martial arts action returns to the UFC Apex on Saturday for a Fight Night headlined by a pivotal middleweight contest between Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov with the winner expected to inch closer to the 185-pound title conversation.
All fighters slated to compete successfully made weight Friday except one. Luana Carolina initially missed the mark by three pounds ahead of her flyweight bout with Julija Stoliarenko. It’s the second time in three years Carolina failed to make the 126-pound limit for non-title bouts. Guilherme Cruz of MMAFighting.com reported Stoliarenko would not accept the fight unless Carolina agreed to lose at least one additional pound. Carolina did lose that extra pound, so the fight will stay on the card and the Brazilian will be fined a percentage of her purse for the miss.
The six-fight main card features a thrilling lightweight co-main event between Renato Moicano and Drew Dober, plus a women’s flyweight scrap between rising contender Natalia Silva and power puncher Viviane Araujo.
Neil Magny spoiled the party at UFC 297 for Mike Malott, the home fans in Toronto and anyone who included the Canadian favourite on their betting slips. The fellas are now 0-2 on three-headed parlays to kick off 2024 thanks to two consecutive events where a -345 or -350 moneyline favourite has been the lone weak link in their parlay attempt.
The first numbered event of the year saw four split decisions, which is always a nerve-racking situation for bettors…and fighters, of course. How will judging factor in this weekend? Will we see more nailbiters in Vegas, or can the fighters keep the judges out of it entirely with a night chock full of finishes?
Complete bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov
— Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
— Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
— Viviane Araujo vs. Natalia Silva
— Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makhmud Muradov
— Gilbert Urbina vs. Charles Radtke
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita
— Azat Maksum vs. Charles Johnson
— Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez
— Lee Jeong Yeong vs. Blake Bilder
— Luana Carolina vs. Julija Stoliarenko
— Landon Quinones vs. Marquel Mederos
— Thomas Petersen vs. Jamal Pogues
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a three-headed monster parlay.
Aaron: McCann vs. Belbita Over 1.5 Rounds -275 (Bovada)
When these two first fought, it was up a weight class and Belbita was still developing her game. Now they fight at Belbita’s natural weight class with both fighters having refined their games. I would be very surprised by an early finish.
Dan: Natalia Silva to win outright -350 (BetWay)
Hopefully you pounced on this one early because the moneyline has kept moving all week. I don’t see how Aruajo will get past Silva’s Taekwondo stance and quick hands. Araujo has been in the Octagon with some big names and should be savvy enough to push this to the scorecards once again… where Silva’s quality strikes and seemingly impenetrable defence will lead to a clear UD at the very least.
Mike: Randy Brown to win outright -275 (DraftKings)
Salikhov has more than a puncher’s chance here, yet he’ll also have an incredibly difficult time getting inside on Brown’s length. Brown is rounding into form as a top-20 welterweight, is six years younger than Salikhov with a significant height and reach advantage. Initially an over 1.5 rounds prop at -320 was going to be my lock this week, but I see Brown having more ways to win overall with a stoppage being realistic even though on paper this matchup has decision written all over it.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +139
2024 Record: 0-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds of -200 or shorter are we most confident in?
Aaron: Natalia Silva wins in Round 3 or by Decision -170 (FanDuel)
Araujo, despite being a heavy underdog, has always been durable and a tough puzzle to solve. I see Silva pulling away down the stretch and either scoring a late finish or winning via decision. She is too heavy of a favourite to pick outright using this criteria, so in order to get the number below -200, I have defined her best winning conditions.
Dan: Renato Moicano -185 (DraftKings)
Moicano has always shown glimpses of brilliance and a win over the hard-hitting Dober would be a clear sign that he is ready to fulfill his potential. Moicano will be aware of Dober’s KO power so look for the skilled Brazilian black belt to negate this and apply one of his trademark submissions. If that doesn’t happen, his well-rounded game should see him get the decision in the unlikely event it goes to scorecards. Expect another wild post-match interview!
Mike: Gilbert Urbina -198 (DraftKings)
Really liked how Urbina looked in his last outing, a TKO win over Orion Cosce. He might only be 3-3 in his past six fights dating back to 2018 but one of those losses was a decision to Sean Brady in LFA and one was in a bout he took on short notice versus Bryan Battle at middleweight. He’s only 27 and I expect him to out-strike, out-grapple and overwhelm Charles Radtke en route to a dominant decision or second-/third-round finish.
Aaron’s favourite record: 0-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Dan’s favourite record: 1-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$34.03
Mike’s favourite record: 2-0
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $ 124.47
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Charles Johnson +180 (FanDuel)
I am picking a short notice opponent against an undefeated Kazakh prospect and it may end up being a bad idea, however I was not overly impressed by Maksum’s debut and felt he should have lost to Tyson Nam by decision. Johnson will always bring maximum effort and is a tough puzzle to solve at flyweight. I see him giving Maksum all that he can handle.
Dan: Roman Dolidze +150 (Bet365)
I’m surprised Roman Dolidze is still plus money here. Yes, he lost to Vettori last time out but that was a very close fight. Prior to that, not only was Dolidze submitting opponents, but knocking them out too. His calf-slicer/KO finish over Jack Hermansson should be framed and mounted in the Louvre. Imavov is a dangerous striker, but Dolidze is an elite grappler and this could be the key to victory in a five-rounder.
Mike: Diana Belbita +225 (Bet365)
“Meatball” being among the more popular women on the UFC roster, not to mention the fact she already holds a lopsided win over Belbita, has these odds tilted more than they should be with Belbita a more mature fighter who looks better at 115 pounds, a weight McCann is debuting at. This should be a fun, high-volume, mostly striking affair and I give Belbita a decent shot at evening the score in this rivalry.
Aaron’s underdog record: 1-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $5
Dan’s underdog record: 0-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Mike’s underdog record: 2-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $242
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Khizriev vs. Muradov Ends in Round 3 +600 (Betway)
I expect this bout to be a pronounced grappler versus striker style clash where Khizriev will look to take this fight to the ground for as long as he can, which will either result in him finishing off an exhausted Muradov or Khizriev running out of gas and Muradov emptying the tank to try and finish him in the third. I don’t foresee an early finish in this one unless it is the underdog Muradov catching Khizriev with something big.
Dan: Moicano vs. Dober fight ends in Round 3 +650 (Bet Rivers)
Tough to see this one going the distance. Expect Dober to swing for the fences as he tries to catch up on points in Round 3 and Moicano to try and pounce with a finish. Just the thrill and entertainment factor alone is worth the punt here.
Mike: Randy Brown by KO/TKO/DQ +600 (Bet Rivers)
Brown is already my lock and I’m doubling down here even though there are probably better dart throw options for this card that come with bigger payouts. Brown doesn’t have a stoppage win since 2021 and hasn’t won via strikes in nearly five years but I see him firing a flush right straight down the pipe and finding Salikhov’s chin and that being the beginning of the end.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Dan’s dart throw record: 0-2
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Mike’s dart throw record: 1-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $600
(Betting odds as of Friday and subject to change prior to fights)