Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Sean Brady will look to improve to 17-1 and reinsert himself into the welterweight title conversation when he takes on one-time title challenger Gilbert Burns in Saturday’s Fight Night main event at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Brady, whose only pro loss came in 2022 to current 170-pound champ Belal Muhammad, submitted Kelvin Gastelum nine months ago.
Burns, 38, is coming off back-to-back losses, including a third-round knockout against Jack Della Maddalena in February.
The co-main event features former strawweight champ Jessica Andrade facing touted 27-yeaer-old Natalia Silva, who is 5-0 in the UFC and riding an 11-fight winning streak overall dating back to 2018.
Kyle Nelson missed weight ahead of his main card bout with Steve Garcia. The Canadian featherweight weighed 148.5, which is 2.5 pounds above the division’s non-title weight limit. Nelson is expected to be fined a percentage of his purse but the bout will proceed at a catchweight. The organization did not immediately specify Nelson’s punishment at the conclusion of Friday’s weigh-ins.
Dylan Budka also missed by 2.5 pounds, weighing 188.5 ahead of a scheduled middleweight contest with Andre Petroski. Budka vs. Petroski will proceed, per the promotion, despite Budka looking shaky while standing on the scale. Budka will be fined 20 per cent of his purse and the bout will proceed at a catchweight.
All other competitors scheduled to compete Saturday successfully made weight Friday.
Complete bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady (five rounds)
— Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva
— Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson*
— Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden
— Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
— Rong Zhu vs. Chris Padilla
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Isaac Dulgarian vs. Brendon Marotte
— Felipe dos Santos vs. André Lima
— Yi Zha vs. Gabriel Santos
— Jaqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
— Andre Petroski vs. Dylan Budka*
— Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher
*fighter missed weight
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Andrade vs. Silva Starts Round 2 -550 (FanDuel)
While Andrade has been a fast starter, I don’t expect Natalia Silva to engage with her early Silva’s best path has always been one that relies on patience and precision and I expect her to take her time in this fight. A second round start should be in the cards for the co-main event.
Dan: Natalia Silva wins outright -300 (BetMGM)
Playing off Aaron’s pick of this one starting Round 2, I think Natalia will land more volume and more significant strikes as the bout goes on. Nobody has been able to figure out that Taekwondo stance yet in the UFC. I think that trend continues on Saturday.
Mike: Burns vs. Brady sees a Round 2 -1000 (BetMGM)
Was tempted to take Isaac Dulgarian at an even more ridiculous number but it wouldn’t’ve add any substantial value to our parlay, so instead I’ll take what should be a relatively safe bet here. I don’t see Burns catching Brady early like he did Demian Maia years ago and Brady has gone to a second round in 11 consecutive bouts, including all seven of his UFC appearances.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -136 (to win: $73.33)
2024 Record: 14-15 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$222.31
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden Over 1.5 Rounds -200 (BetOnline)
With slim pickings on straight pick offerings in the -200 and under category, I am going with a prop that I think is highly likely. While both Schnell and Durden have been finished, I expect this fight will be more grappling heavy and that Durden, who took the fight on short notice, takes the path of least resistance and opts not to stand with a tricky Schnell.
Dan: Sean Brady -190 (BetMGM)
I don’t think any of the -200 favourites are safe bets here. But scared money can only break even! I’ll take Sean Brady for the win and see what happens. Gilbert Burns is still a beast but he is coming off that loss to JDM at UFC 299 where he showed signs of being human too. I don’t love this pick.
Mike: Sean Brady -190 (BetMGM)
Burns is not your average 38-year-old but the trajectories of these two fighters are currently going in opposite directions. Unless Burns can thoroughly out-technique Brady, or land a huge overhand right that rocks him, I see the pure physical strength of Burns being a key difference in this matchup. Brady should be able to take Burns to the mat at some point and I don’t see Burns being a submission threat off his back despite his incredible jiu-jitsu credentials.
Aaron’s favourite record: 16-13
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$239.72
Dan’s favourite record: 19-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$216.09
Mike’s favourite record: 17-11-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$49.88
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Amorim vs. Demopoulos ends inside the distance +155 (BetOnline)
Taking a women’s strawweight fight to end inside the distance is never a safe bet, but Amorim has a 100% finish rate and Demopoulos, despite the fast majority of her fights going the distance, is a very aggressive fighter. I expect that if Amorim is unable to find an early finish that Demopoulos will turn up the heat in the later rounds and look for a finish of her own.
Dan: Felipe dos Santos +150 (BetMGM)
I really like Felipe dos Santos’ chances of upsetting the odds here. I’m not fully sold on Andre Lima. Felipe’s a better fighter than his UFC record shows, and I think on Saturday night he proves it.
Mike: Zygimantas Ramaska +110 (BetMGM)
A couple weeks ago I picked Nathan Fletcher over Zygimantas Ramaska as my fave before it was called off hours before the event and the bet voided. While I do believe Fletcher is a solid young fighter with a likely grappling advantage here, the line has shifted in Ramaska’s direction since Fletcher’s medical issue a couple weeks ago and the more I think about it the more I see Ramaska’s size and striking advantage being the difference in a three-round fight. This matchup of TUF 32 alumni should be a fun one whoever gets his hand raised.
Aaron’s underdog record: 10-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$430
Dan’s underdog record: 9-20
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$867
Mike’s underdog record: 12-17
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$5
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Jacqueline Amorim by Round 1 submission +550 (BetMGM)
Six of Amorim’s eight wins come by first round submission and while Demopoulos is a fantastic grappler, I cannot overlook the opportunistic nature of Amorim’s game. I expect her to bring the fight to Demopoulos early and believe Demopoulos will reciprocate. In those situations, Amorim is at her most dangerous.
Dan: Nelson/Garcia ends in final round or goes to decision +510 (BetRivers)
I have a feeling these two are going to stand and trade but both fighters should do enough to cancel each other out through two rounds. Hammers will fly in the final round and someone could get dropped but at that point a decision is also on the cards. Not sure how it plays out, but at +510 this is a decent double chance prop.
Mike: Sean Brady by submission +1000 (BetMGM)
If either fighter subs the other fight fans likely won’t stop talking about it for a while. I can see Burns eventually using his strength to wear down burns and show off his crazy squeeze at some point to beome the first fighter to submit Burns in MMA. Let’s say some type of choke; maybe a mid-to-late-round arm-triangle?
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-24-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$300
Dan’s dart throw record: 3-26
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$850
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-23-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,550
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)