Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC returns to Toronto for the first time in more than five years with Saturday’s UFC 297 headlined by a middleweight championship matchup between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis, plus a vacant women’s bantamweight title bout between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva.
Canadian Mike Malott will look to continue rising up the welterweight rankings and earn style points in front of the hometown crowd when he faces Neil Magny in a featured main card bout. Marc-André Barriault is the other Canadian competing on the main card when he meets Strickland’s teammate and training partner Chris Curtis.
The 12-fight card features nine Canucks in total, including one in every preliminary bout.
Complete bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis
— Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
— Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
— Chris Curtis vs. Marc-André Barriault
— Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
PRELIMINARY CARD (SN360/SN+ coverage begins 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
— Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield
— Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson
— Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras
— Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana
— Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson
— Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira
— Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Bueno Silva vs. Pennington Over 1.5 rounds -525 (Bovada)
Bueno Silva has shown that she has a penchant for finishing fights, but Pennington is one of the most stubborn and durable fighters having only been stopped once in her long UFC tenure. I expect that this fight comfortably makes it beyond the halfway point of the second round.
Dan: Mike Malott to win outright -350 (Fan Duel)
Whether it’s by strikes or strangle look for “Proper” Mike Malott to get the win prior to scorecards. But, with Neil Magny’s stubborn endurance, take the outright win by Malott to be safe. Don’t see a scenario where the Canadian doesn’t get his hand raised.
Mike: Lainesse vs. Patterson ends inside the distance -550 (DraftKings)
Hand up, I messed up my part of the three-headed parlay last week. Here comes the redemption. We’re going to see a handful of fun prelims that won’t require the judges and I count this welterweight scrap among them. Yohan Lainesse nor Sam Patterson see the scorecards often and both should be aggressive on offence throughout. Lainesse is the better striker yet the underdog Patterson could be live for a submission.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -124 (to win $80.90)
2024 Record: 0-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds of -200 or shorter are we most confident in?
Aaron: Brad Katona -200 (Bet365)
Katona took the long road back to the UFC, facing UFC-calibre competition in order to prove that he belonged and he has looked fantastic along the way. Armfield is on the rise and trains with a good camp, but I expect Katona will be too much for him to handle. While it is the fight game and anything can happen, I don’t think that Katona has made it this far to lose to Armfield.
Dan: Serhiy Sidey -180 (DraftKings)
Serhiy Sidey has already beaten Ramon Taveras once. This time around he looks even fitter, faster and stronger. All the hard work he has put in at Burlington Training Centre will no doubt pay off for him (and you) in front of a pro-Canadian crowd.
Mike: Chris Curtis -185 (Bovada)
No fighter during fight week has impressed me more than Curtis. He’s underrated despite being ranked in the top 15 and if you could design an ideal training partner to help prepare him for Marc-André Barriault’s style it would probably be Sean Strickland, one of Curtis’s top training partners and the current champ. Besides the main event, this is the fight I’m most looking forward to and is the sneaky Fight of the Night frontrunner.
Aaron’s favourite record: 0-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Dan’s favourite record: 1-0
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $65.97
Mike’s favourite record: 1-0
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $70.42
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Dricus Du Plessis +105 (Bovada)
Du Plessis is barely an underdog, but I am surprised that he was the underdog to begin with. Strickland is a master at what he does, however, I feel that Du Plessis has both the best path to victory and more paths to victory, so I cannot pass him up as the underdog in the main event.
Dan: Arnold Allen +160 (Bovada)
Tough to see this one ending before going to the scorecards. With that in mind, it’s worth leaning the underdog in this one. Look for “Almighty” Arnold Allen to get some divine intervention on the scorecards thanks to superior strikes throughout. Evloev to take his first MMA loss in respectable fashion.
Mike: Raquel Pennington +140 (Bet365)
I entered this week thinking Mayra Bueno Silva could be my favourite favourite, however, Pennington’s overall demeanour has completely swayed me. She has faced bigger and tougher competition for much longer than Bueno Silva. Pennington is durable and while Bueno Silva is the better finisher, I don’t see this one ending early and Pennington can thrive in the championship rounds. I believe the fact Pennington is not flashy and hasn’t been active is a driver of the current odds and it should be closer to a toss-up.
Aaron’s underdog record: 0-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Dan’s underdog record: 0-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Mike’s underdog record: 1-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $102
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Du Plessis wins in Round 2 +750 (FanDuel)
I believe that the best winning conditions for Du Plessis are to find an early stoppage. In five of his last nine wins, Du Plessis has found a finish in the 2nd round, which tends to be when he cracks the code of his opponent. I believe that if Du Plessis does win, it will be sometime before the championship rounds begin.
Dan: Du Plessis wins in Round 1 +550 (FanDuel)
Yes, Sean Strickland put on a defensive clinic against Adesanya to win the title last time out. But given Du Plessis’ knockout power and the unpredictable way he sends out his strikes, a +550 Round 1 win is a decent dart throw. Look for Du Plessis to break through Strickland’s Philly shell defence early and claim the title.
Mike: Strickland vs. Du Plessis to end in Round 3 +600 (FanDuel)
Let’s make this a triple main event dart throw! Almost picked this fight to finish inside the distance as my lock but I can also see it legitimately turning into a five-round classic that challenges Jones-Gustafsson 1 from UFC 165 as the best championship fight to take place in Toronto. In lieu of taking a side, though, I’ll simply call that it ends in Round 3 via any capacity.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Dan’s dart throw record: 0-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Mike’s dart throw record: 1-0
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $700
(Betting odds as of Friday morning and subject to change prior to fights)