Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
Combat sports fans will be treated to an elite style matchup Saturday when Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway compete for the undisputed featherweight championship in the main event of UFC 308.
Topuria is undefeated and became champion in just his seventh UFC appearance earlier this year when he knocked out Alexander Volkanovski.
Holloway is a former 145-pound champion looking to get back to the top of the division for the first time in more than five years. The fan favourite from Hawaii is coming off a highlight-reel Knockout of the Year-calibre victory over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 to earn the organization’s BMF Title.
The event from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi has an earlier than usual start time for North American audiences.
There’s a special five-round co-main event with undefeated, highly touted Khamzat Chimaev making his return to the cage for the first time in a year when he faces former 185-pound champion and perennial contender Robert Whittaker who’s looking to play spoiler.
The main card also features a light heavyweight contest between Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic that could potentially determine Alex Pereira’s next challenger, a featherweight bout between ranked contenders Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige, plus Shara Magomedov looking to improve to 15-0 when he faces fellow middleweight striker Armen Petrosyan.
A stacked preliminary card sees Geoff Neal take on Rafael dos Anjos on the former lightweight champion’s 40th birthday, plus on-the-rise fighters including Myktybek Orolbai, Farid Basharat, Rinat Fakhretdinov, Brunno Ferreira and Ibo Aslan, all of whom have impressed early in their UFC careers.
Our trio of prognosticators had their six-event three-headed parlay streak snapped at the most recent Fight Night but Aaron hit his dart throw for a second consecutive event.
Complete bout order and full predictions for UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway below:
MAIN CARD
— Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
— Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
— Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige
— Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic
— Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos
— Mateusz Rębecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai
— Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira
— Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo
— Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva
— Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal
— Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira
— Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Farid Basharat to win outright -667
I am aboard the Farid Basharat hype train, especially after a unanimous decision win over Taylor Lapilus, who has always been an exceptionally tricky puzzle to solve. Now he faces Hugo, who is a step down in competition, in front of a crowd that should be overwhelmingly on his side. I think Basharat is as safe a bet on this card as there is.
Dan: Magomed Ankalaev to win outright -400
As long as Ankalaev doesn’t look past Rakic, this outcome is a lock. Rakic is coming off two defeats in a row while there is very little MMA evidence to suggest that Ankalaev can be beaten based on his form in that last 2 years. Yes, the form book goes out the window when that cage door shuts but Ankalaev has too much at stake to slip up in what should be a routine victory.
Mike: Myktybek Orolbai to win outright -300
Rebecki is a tough out yet I see Orolbai being able to close the distance and be relentless with his wrestling pressure.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -109 (to win: $91.65)
2024 Record: 19-16 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$54.46
FAVOURITE
Which wager with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? (On chalky cards with few moneyline favourites shorter than -200, prop bets are open to be selected)
Aaron: Ankalaev vs. Rakic Over 2.5 Rounds -190
Ankalaev and Rakic is the sort of matchup that is conducive to being a chess match. Both fighters possess solid striking and grappling, which could result in a slower paced, more tactical fight. I believe that this will head to the scorecards.
Dan: Shara Magomedov -165
I think Magomedov’s superior wrestling and unique approach will be the difference here. Petrosyan tapped out to Rodolfo Vieira in his last fight and faces (arguably) an even tougher matchup this time around. As we learn every week, nothing is certain in MMA, but this one sure feels like it and there are pretty good returns to be had on Shara Bullet depending on how you play it.
Mike: Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos goes distance -150
With a dearth of eligible moneyline winners within our range for this card, this is a prop I feel confident in as both fighters are experienced and difficult to finish.
Aaron’s favourite record: 19-16
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$366.40
Dan’s favourite record: 25-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$548.66
Mike’s favourite record: 20-14-1
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$89.39
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Robert Whittaker +210
There are too many red flags for Chimaev in this fight. Chimaev has never fought in the championship rounds and has shown a propensity to tire, where Whittaker tends to build as fights go on. Chimaev has battled an array of illnesses in recent years. Kamaru Usman, fighting up a weight class on a few days’ notice gave Chimaev all that he could handle. Whittaker, meanwhile, is coming off a marquee performance against a highly touted Ikram Aliskerov and the odds for this fight haven’t changed since it was originally scheduled for June. I’ll take Whittaker as a more than two-to-one underdog with all of that in mind.
Dan: Brunno Ferreira +120
Ferreira faces his toughest test to date in Abus Magomedov but given the Brazilian’s power and explosiveness he will always pose a real threat at upsetting the odds here. There are obvious holes in Ferreira’s game that Magomedov could exploit, but I still think there is a path to victory here if “Hulk” is able to consistently smash.
Mike: Aleksandar Rakic +305
Ankalaev is facing so much pressure in this one and Rakic is being underestimated in this spot partly because he hasn’t won a fight in 2.5 years. These odds do not reflect how competitive this matchup is in my view. It’s a tougher stylistic matchup for Ankalaev than a fight with the champ Alex Pereira would be.
Aaron’s underdog record: 12-23
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$555
Dan’s underdog record: 10-25
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,247
Mike’s underdog record: 14-21
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$59.76
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Ilia Topuria wins by submission +500
Everyone has been so dazzled by the power possessed by Topuria that they are forgetting about his grappling chops. I expect that Topuria will make grappling a part of his game plan against Holloway and with the sort of squeeze that Topuria has shown in the past, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is able to find a submission against Holloway at some stage of the fight if the opportunity presents itself in a scramble or otherwise.
Dan: Chris Barnett to win outright +500
Why not? It’s already virtually impossible not to cheer for this man. Yes, it’s a short notice fight but Barnett was already in camp up until his Vegas Fight Night bout got cancelled two weeks ago. Nzechukwu put on a lackluster performance in a loss to OSP the last time out, who was also at least a +500 underdog prior to that bout. It’s still a difficult to justify this outcome because we haven’t seen Barnett in the Octagon in more than two years and he has overcome so much personal tragedy to get here with the recent hurricanes in the U.S. MMA rarely gives us those story book endings, so maybe we are overdue for one?
Mike: Ilia Topuria wins by knockout in Round 1 +500
Earlier this year I called Holloway’s late KO win over Gaethje and it pains me to pick against the current BMF but I view Topuria as the genuine article and a top pound-for-pound talent. There is no fighter at 145 pounds currently that I would pick to beat Topuria. His speed and accuracy could produce yet another highlight finish that turns him into an international superstar.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 7-27-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,150
Dan’s dart throw record: 4-31
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$50
Mike’s dart throw record: 6-28-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,950
(Betting odds above via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)