There isn’t anyone on the planet more qualified to discuss the UFC 308 main event between Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway than Alexander Volkanovski.
The former undisputed featherweight champion has spent more time competing against Holloway than any other fighter in UFC history, plus he was the most recent fighter to face Topuria when they met back in February and the title changed hands.
Volkanovski broke down the anticipated upcoming 145-pound championship matchup ahead of Saturday’s event in Abu Dhabi, which he will be attending in person, and gave some interesting predictions.
“You look deep into it, stylistically this is going to be a pretty difficult fight for Ilia,” Volkanovski said on his YouTube channel.
One of the first things Volkanovski pointed out was to disregard the MMA math involved in the matchup and mostly discount the fact he beat Holloway thrice, yet Topuria finished him within two rounds.
Style matchups and proven longevity often matter more than who should beat who based on winning streaks or previous results and opponents, which is why Volkanoski said he was surprised to see Holloway listed as the betting underdog (+200 with Topuria a -250 favourite according to BetMGM) heading into the event at Etihad Arena.
Topuria and Holloway are both coming off highlight knockout victories earlier this year. Topuria knocked out Volkanovski with punches at UFC 298 to become champion and Holloway knocked out Justin Gaethje in dramatic last-second fashion to win the BMF Title in a special UFC 300 lightweight contest.
“It’s a very exciting fight for the fans,” Topuria told Sportsnet’s Aaron Bronsteter. “I was very happy when I saw that knockout because my thought process in that moment was ‘I have a new opponent. I have a new challenger.’ I felt very excited about the fact he got an exciting knockout.”
Volkanovski won the title from Holloway via unanimous decision in 2019, beat him by split decision seven months later in the rematch, and swept the scorecards in the trilogy bout in the summer of 2022.
Topuria said outright he plans on knocking Holloway out in the first round.
“I don’t like to compare myself with anyone (but) the only thing I know is I’m going to make it look much easier than Volk did,” Topuria proclaimed. “If (Holloway) stands in the middle of the Octagon in the first 10 seconds of the fight (like he did in the final 10 seconds against Gaethje) then the knockout will come in the first 10 seconds.”
Volkanovski won the opening round against Topuria at UFC 298 on all three judges’ scorecards before Topuria landed the finishing sequence midway through the second to improve to 15-0 in MMA.
“He caught me and he’s got powerful hands,” Volkanovski said. “I knew if I was ever going to be beat, it was him catching me. That’s just how it is and that’s how it’s going to be with Max Holloway. I think he has to catch Max Holloway to win.”
Volkanovski landed 283 total significant head strikes against Holloway during their three tilts but Holloway was still standing at the end of each final round.
“We know he’s got a great chin,” Volkanovski continued. “I think that Ilia needs to try and crack that chin and take him out because you know later rounds he’s going to get very tough for a guy like Ilia especially because Max is just going to keep going. Max can do it all day and we know Max has got a great chin so even if Ilia does crack him, does it put Max’s lights out?
“Man, I’ve tried, a lot of people have tried to take that chin out and it is tough.”
Holloway has been in the UFC since 2012 and faced some of the most successful knockout artists of his era from both the featherweight and lightweight divisions, withstanding all shots from the likes of Volkanovski, Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor, Yair Rodriguez, Anthony Pettis, Charles Oliveira and many others.
Volkanovski described Holloway as “seasoned everywhere” with a layered skill set and sees a scenario where Holloway can eventually take over the fight with pace, output and sheer toughness the longer the fight goes, adding he thinks Holloway can become a two-time champ by either winning a decision or slowing Topuria down and getting a late-round finish.
The 36-year-old from Australia doesn’t only have history with the UFC 308 headliners. He also has a likely future date with the winner.
“I know I got next on that title,” Volkanovski added.