The eight teams who will continue in the WNBA postseason have been decided, as New York and Phoenix claimed the final two spots while Atlanta and Minnesota's playoff dreams ended on Sunday.
With a new playoff format for the 2022 season, no team gets a bye into any round — instead, in the first round, each team will compete in a best-of-three series.
• The No. 1 seed plays the No. 8 seed
• The No. 2 seed plays the No. 7 seed
• The No. 3 seed plays the No. 6 seed
• The No. 4 seed plays the No. 5 seed
The four teams who win will then face off in a best-of-five semi-final series, and the WNBA Finals will also be a best-of-five series. Here is a look at the first round matchups of the playoffs.
No. 1 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 8 Phoenix Mercury
Prediction: Las Vegas Wins.
The Las Vegas Aces tallied the most wins in franchise history on their path to securing the No. 1 seed after already securing the Commissioner's Cup. They haven't had the success they have wanted in the postseason over the last few years, and will be missing Dearica Hamby for at least the first round — if not more.
They still have A'ja Wilson, though, who looks to be in MVP form, averaging 19.5 points, 9.4 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game on top of playing stellar defence. The rest of the rotation isn't lacking either, buoyed by Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young, and the Aces have momentum on their side, too. Vegas came out of a slump to start August and finished the year on a four-game win streak.
In their season series, the Aces swept the Mercury 3-0, winning by as many as 20 points, though the two teams have not faced off since May 21.
Phoenix will be without Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi for the foreseeable future, so much of the offensive load will fall to Diamond DeShields. There's reason to believe she will be up to that task — though fully replacing the impact of Diggins-Smith and Taurasi would be a tall order. While taking on more responsibility in Phoenix's offence throughout August, the WNBA champion with the Chicago Sky last year averaged 16 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 per game.
It is unlikely the Mercury take the series, or even win a game without multiple of their stars, which is especially disappointing after their season last year where they reached the WNBA Finals. Yet even with their stars all on the floor, it would be hard to stop the well-oiled machine that Becky Hammon is running in Nevada.
No. 2 Chicago Sky vs No. 7 New York Liberty
Prediction: Chicago wins.
The reigning WNBA champions will take on the Liberty, who started their season 1-7, but are coming off a 5-2 run in August to end their year — avoiding a first-round clash with the Aces.
Chicago, led by All-Stars Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot, Kahleah Copper and Emma Meesseman, dominated their way to a franchise-record 26 wins this season and look just as in form as they did last year when they won the title.
As for New York, Sabrina Ionescu has finally found her footing in the league after an injury her rookie season and a rocky 2021. Now, she is a triple-double machine and leads the Liberty in both points and assists and is second on the team in rebounds.
On top of that, the sneaky threats come in the form of Crystal Dangerfield and Marine Johannes, who can both sink shots from beyond the three-point line with ease and help the Liberty facilitate plays when necessary as well.
New York is hard to contain from beyond the arc. And, consistently, they have proven you should expect the unexpected with their team. But Chicago has sheer power at every position. Infuse that with the momentum Chicago has as reigning champions coming off a dominant regular season, and the court tilts in favour of the Sky.
No. 3 Connecticut Sun vs. No. 6 Dallas Wings
Prediction: Connecticut wins — narrowly
Already starting off the postseason on a low note with the loss of Arike Ogunbowale for at least the first round of the playoffs, the Wings still have hope they can upset a strong Sun team. They took the season series 2-1 and have one of the best bench rotations in the league under Vickie Johnson.
Johnson was named WNBA coach of the month after the Wings went 5-2 in August, defeating the Aces and Sky in back-to-back games, and set franchise-highs with 61 first-half points and 116 points in a regulation game in their final game of the season.
The absence of Ogunbowale is extremely notable, though. She averaged 19.7 points per game in 2022, good for fourth in the league, and replacing type of consistent presence will be an immense void to fill.
Still, other players have stepped up in August, proving that — even without its brightest star — Dallas has the makings of a contender.
Marina Mabrey has carried the team, leading them in both scoring and assists in August with an average 20.9 points and 5.1 rebounds, and Teaira McCowan recorded four double-doubles in seven games, averaging 17.4 points and 11.6 rebounds.
Against the depth of Connecticut, though, that may not be enough. The Sun's rotation is strong, featuring reigning Most Valuable Player Jonquel Jones and reigning Most Improved Player Brionna Jones, but most importantly the resurgence of Alyssa Thomas after missing most of last season.
Thomas led the Sun in assists, averaging 6.1 per game, and aids in their transition offence, allowing Connecticut to score with ease — especially with both Jonquel and Brionna Jones able to finish in the paint on a regular basis.
The series will be one of the most physical in the postseason, with both teams heavy on offensive rebounding and getting second-chance baskets in the net, and if Dallas can contain Connecticut down low and force them to shoot from long, they may just have a chance to take a game — and maybe more, if enough bounces their way. Notching two wins, though, may be too much to hope for.
No. 4 Seattle Storm vs. No. 5 Washington Mystics
Prediction: Seattle wins.
Any team that Breanna Stewart plays on is a team that is going to see success. The Storm's MVP candidate secured this season's scoring title, averaging a whopping 21.8 points, while also chipping in 7.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game.
On the other hand, Washington is led by the gritty play of Natasha Cloud, one of the best defenders in the league and an elite playmaker who averaged seven assists per game and collected at least five assists in 29 games this season.
Washington also has the added value of Elena Delle Donne — when healthy. And while she was on a managed minutes plan during the season to ensure she stayed healthy, the extended schedule plan for the playoffs should help alleviate any stress that back-to-back games would cause. In the 25 games Delle Donne did play this year, the Mystics were 18-7.
Beyond Stewart, Seattle's answer to Washington's defence is Jewell Loyd, who put up 16.3 points per game this season, shooting 38.5 per cent from the three-point arc. Statistically, when Loyd scores 15 points or more in a game, the Storm are more often winning the game than not.
This match-up will be incredibly even, led by star veterans like Delle Donne and Sue Bird, elite guards like Cloud and Loyd, and difference-makers like Stewart and Ariel Atkins. While this series is more than likely to go to three games, the Storm having Stewart and also wanting to give Bird her proper farewell makes it feel like it will end in their favour.
