Team Canada started the 2024 World Junior Championship with consecutive wins over Finland and Latvia. Things looked generally positive for the group in both games. Mathis Rousseau had been solid in net. Macklin Celebrini was leading the tournament in scoring. The team, as a whole, seemed to be towing the rope in the same direction.
But those wins came over teams that have losing records in pool play.
Team Latvia didn't score its first goal until its fourth game of the tournament!
Team Finland could realistically end up with only one win before the start of the medal round. The Finns face rival Sweden in their final round-robin game on Sunday.
It’s fair to say Team Canada is licking its wounds Saturday morning after a 2-0 loss to Team Sweden Friday night.
Perspective and positive
It’s important to not overanalyze Canada’s wins over Finland and Latvia. It’s equally important to reflect upon the loss to Sweden and not get caught up in only negatives.
This tournament is all about building toward the medal round. Lessons are learned along the way … but … turning pucks over below the dots in the defensive zone, or blowing the zone completely when anticipating a chipped puck to open ice, isn’t a responsible recipe for success. Neither is a too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty when the team is trying to come back late in the game.
The good news is, these kinds of errors are fixable. Expect the team to have more discipline and structure versus Germany, in its final round-robin game on Sunday.
It’s too early to dissect and grade the performance of entire Canadian roster. The Germany game will tell me a lot about where it is heading into the medal round, and what adjustments have been made after the loss to Sweden.
The most positive story for Team Canada has been the consistent play from goaltender Rousseau. He was, by far, Canada’s best player against Sweden. When the group in front of him turned pucks over, or their defensive assignments broke down, Rousseau came with key saves to keep Canada in the game.
Here are some examples:
In this sequence, Canadian forward Fraser Minten has clear control of the puck below the hash marks in the defensive zone. He tries to reverse the play to defenceman Denton Mateychuk, but turns it over to Swedish forward Felix Unger Sorum. Which leads to a grade-A scoring chance for Sweden’s David Edstrom.
The second sequence speaks for itself. The Canadians break down in their zone and lose coverage of their checks. Rousseau is forced to come up with a desperation stop to keep Canada within one goal.
Rousseau has, arguably, been the top goaltender of the tournament. He has played all three games for Team Canada and faced more high-danger chances than goalies on other contending teams. Rousseau has a 1.33 GAA and .944 save percentage.
Gold is the goal
The Swedes have been building toward this event for obvious reasons: As the tournament hosts, the Tre Kronor want to contend for a gold medal.
Sweden has, historically, been very good in pool play. But it tends to stumble when the medal round begins. Sweden last won a gold medal in 2012. The Swedes have three silvers (2013-14-18) and two bronze (2020-22) since that gold medal performance.
This is one of the most balanced Swedish teams I have scouted at this event. The group has a nice mix of size, speed, and skill.
The St. Louis Blues' 2023 first-round NHL pick (25th overall), Otto Stenberg, along with fellow first-rounders Filip Bystedt (Sharks), Liam Ohgren (Wild), David Edstrom (Golden Knights), Noah Ostlund and Jonathan Lekkerimaki (Canucks) tend to attract the most recognition.
The player deserving of more recognition is another St. Louis Blues first-round pick from 2023 Theo Lindstein, who went 29th overall. The Blues have to be ecstatic about the trajectory Lindstein is on.
Lindstein has five assists in three games this week. He’s a very tidy (+7) as well.
Shutout streak
Sweden’s goaltending tandem of undrafted prospect Hugo Havelid and Arizona Coyotes prospect Melker Thelin (fifth round, 134th overall, in 2023) have yet to surrender a goal in the tournament.
Three straight shutouts is impressive, but still trails the record-setting American team from 2021 that went 218:53 without allowing a goal.
Three goalies have posted three shutouts over the history of the event: Justin Pogge for Team Canada (2006), Spencer Knight from Team USA (2021) and Devon Levi from Team Canada (also 2021).
Year over year
Team Canada could have as many as four games remaining in the tournament, if it makes it to the bronze- or gold-medal game, which is on Jan. 5.
Last year’s squad ended up with seven players inside the top thirty in tournament scoring, enroute to the gold medal. Connor Bedard won the scoring title with 23 points and a plus-14.
This year’s team has only one player in the top 22 and three players in the top 30. Macklin Celebrini is the leading scorer for Team Canada, with six pts in three games.
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