Scout's Analysis: Where Team Canada sits after two games at world juniors

The morning after is setting in for Team Canada.

The morning after the most unexpected result in tournament history. By now everyone is aware that Team Latvia defeated Team Canada 3-2 in a shootout on Friday evening. The result speaks for itself. Latvia had never beaten Canada at the WJC. They had been outscored 41-4 in their previous four defeats, including a 10-0 drubbing last year in Gothenburg, Sweden.

The loss leaves Canada in a very precarious position. They will need to win both of their remaining games in pool play in regulation time, against Germany and the USA, to have a chance of winning the group. Winning the group isn’t mandatory for Team Canada, but it would provide an easier quarter-final matchup against a team like Slovakia compared to either Czechia or Sweden.

Here are some of my Team Canada observations through their first two games of the tournament:

Goaltending

Carter George was fantastic in Canada’s 4-0 win over Team Finland. George came up with timely saves in the first two periods but it was his third period that was especially impressive.

Here’s a look at how lopsided the ice was in Finland’s favour in the third period. All of the blue numbers identify a shot on goal for Team Finland in the third period:

Finland had generated only eleven shots through forty minutes on Thursday. They exploded for twenty shots in the third period and had the Canadians on their heels at even strength and when on the power-play.  

Jack Ivankovic is hardly to blame for Canada’s loss to Latvia. He made some timely stops early in the game to allow his team time to jump out to a 1-0 lead in the second period and really had no chance on either of Latvia’s power-play goals in the third period. By the time the shootout rolled around, he stopped all but one of the breakaways in the skills competition that lasted eight rounds. His performance was impressive given the fact he’s only seventeen years young and one of the top draft-eligible goaltenders for the 2025 NHL draft.  

Skaters

I’m lumping the defenceman and forwards into one category. It feels to me like there’s a disconnect in the group as a whole. It started in the third period versus Finland and carried over to the Latvia game. The Finns and Latvians aren’t as talented as the Canadians on paper, but they put Team Canada on notice that will can overcome skill. As I’ve mentioned in this space several times, as a scout I look for the prospect to provide relentless compete, play fast and think the game fast. He has to read/react and execute on time. Getting outworked is an unacceptable quality that stands out as a concern that needs to be addressed.  

With that in mind, it’s been hard for me to identify the hardest-working, most efficient, or most dynamic offensive player for Team Canada through two games. The entire group has experienced some positive and negative results. I would say, however, that Matthew Schaefer — before going down with an injury early in the first period last night — was easily the most consistent Canadian skater. He’s a complete player. Schaefer plays in all situations and competes like a dog on a bone.   

The rest of the group has much more to give. They have to execute breaking pucks out of their zone more accurately, manage pucks better in transition, work off the cycle in the offensive zone, and get to the middle of the ice/high-danger areas to generate more offence. All of those things have to happen without cutting corners or falling asleep in the defensive zone.  

Here’s a look at some of the key statistical categories for Team Canada through two games: 

Canada’s coaching staff referenced zone time, shots on goal, and puck possession as positive takeaways from their game versus Latvia. They mentioned how well Linards Feldbergs played in the net for Latvia, giving the impression they got “goalied” by the netminder. I agree that Feldbergs was excellent, but it’s not like Team Canada generated a ton of opportunities from high-danger areas. The reason their shooting percentage is as brutal as it is through two games is the fact they are directing pucks on net from the perimeter and not generating enough net-front battle to pounce on rebounds or set screens for tips.  

Here's a look at the areas of Latvia’s zone where Team Canada directed shots on net: 

For context, let’s keep in mind Latvia isn’t exactly Team USA or Team Sweden when it comes to defending the defensive zone. If the Canadians aren’t willing to get to the inside against Latvia, how much worse is this going to look against the top teams in the tournament?

Power Play (?)

How does Team Canada, with players like Easton Cowan, Calum Ritchie, Bradly Nadeau, Brayden Yager, Berkly Catton and Gavin McKenna not generate more looks on the power-play? The Canadian power-play is 2 for 12 in its first two games. It needs to improve if they are going to contend in this tournament.  

It starts with winning face-offs, establishing control, and implementing a system that wears down the opponent. Canada’s power-play unit(s) have been far too static. They aren’t moving the puck quickly or effectively. They aren’t getting pucks to the net and crashing the crease to pounce on rebounds. It has looked disjointed and out of sync.  

The coaching staff has to take a long look at how they are deploying the skaters on their power-play, especially since Schaefer is out with injury moving forward. I’m confused as to the reason why the staff hasn’t used the top-scoring defenceman in all of the CHL, Sam Dickinson from the London Knights, on the power-play. Dickinson has contributed 15G-31A for the Knights so far this season. Nine of his fifteen tucks have come on the power-play. In his last ten-game segment, before the WJC, Dickinson averaged nearly 30:00 TOI, was deployed in all situations, counted 4G-13A offensively and was a (+13) defensively.  

Conclusion

Canada’s goaltending has been excellent in the first two games of the tournament. They know what they have between the pipes. I can sit here and write a novel about how to generate more scoring chances and play with a consistent identity as a team for the full sixty minutes. It’s very simple. It starts with choosing to outwork your opponent every time your number is called. Canada’s skill will have more of an opportunity to rise to the occasion through hard work and determination. Their overall execution will go to another level as a result of wearing down their opponent. Without a more relentless approach,  Canada will struggle the rest of the way in Ottawa.