It’s tradition. New Year’s Eve at the WJC provides us with a key matchup in group play before moving into the medal round. Today it’s Team Canada vs Team Sweden.
Here are some of my pre-game thoughts from a scouting perspective:
1) Team Canada has six players in the top 10 of tournament scoring. The Logan Stankoven line, flanked by Connor Bedard and Dylan Guenther, has been lethal at both even strength and on the power play. The team is relying on them to carry the mail. They didn’t play together in the first game against Czechia. Games against Germany and Austria provided them the opportunity to jell as a unit. Team Sweden is a much larger test.
2) Conversely Sweden has relied on a balanced scoring attack. Their leading scorer is Florida Panthers draft pick (125th in 2022) Ludvig Jansson. Jansson has impressed me this week. He’s not a heavy player (176 pounds) but he’s willing to drive to the hard areas and battle in the trenches. Team Canada will also have to be aware of him attacking off the rush. When he gets the edge, on zone entries, he is proving to be a dangerous player.
3) Big games always seem to come down to the goaltending battle and nobody has been better in this tournament than Carl Lindbom from Sweden. The Vegas Golden Knights’ seventh-round pick in 2021 is sporting an unbelievable 0.66 GAA and .974 save percentage coming into this game. He has been the MVP of the tournament for Team Sweden.
4) Thomas Milic gets the start in goal for Team Canada. He needs to be solid, not spectacular, for the Canadians. This is the biggest start of his career to date. The undrafted goalie from the Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) played 25 straight playoff games last spring. He knows pressure. Hopefully for Team Canada he is up to the task.
5) Connor Bedard is going to go first overall in the draft next summer. He has solidified his hold on the slot.
6) Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson will be debated heavily by NHL teams in their scouting meetings in January. This game is very important to both players. The scouting community is blessed with the rare opportunity to view, potentially, the top three draft eligible players compete against each other in the same game.
7) Speaking of Carlsson, he and Fabian Lysall (21st overall / Boston 2021) came down with illness this week. Carlsson took warmup before the Czechia game but was unable to play. Lysall played four minutes in the first period before leaving the game. They are top six forwards for Sweden. It goes without saying they are important to any success the Swedes have both today and moving forward in the tournament.
8) Another draft eligible player to keep a close eye on his Sweden’s Axel Sandin-Pellikka. The transitional defender is playing over twenty minutes per game so far in the tournament and being deployed at even strength and the power play. He’s an elite skater who transitions pucks very well. On the offensive blue line, he brings some deception and has been directing more pucks on goal from range at this event. What has impressed me is his willingness to battle hard along the boards and out front his net in his zone. He’s not a physical player but he’s showing up. His draft stock is on the rise.
9) Canada is listed as the home team today. They will have last change.
How Canada Wins:
1) Start on time. Push the play from the drop of the puck.
2) Team discipline – systematically – and do not take needless penalties.
3) Play the game on straight lines and use their speed, skill, and size to wear down Team Sweden.
4) Get timely saves from Thomas Milic.
How Sweden Wins:
1) Lindbom continues to play at an elite level and provides Team Sweden with big saves when called upon. He is the most important player for Sweden today.
2) Take advantage on the power play. The Swedes have been moving the puck around effectively but they are having a tough time getting to the middle of the ice and directing pucks on goal appropriately with the man advantage so far in the tournament.
3) Take their time. The Swedes have the ability, and mindset, to slowly build their game over 60 minutes. It’s likely they will clog the neutral zone and try to minimize Team Canada’s speed in transition. They will then pounce on turnovers and try to take advantage of quick strike opportunities.
4) I expect Sweden to play a disciplined game. They don’t, generally, take a ton of penalties. They also know Team Canada has a lethal power play. The special team game is going to be key to their success today.
